Nervous about crowds

[eeyoreandtink]

Except 35% capacity at Epcot is actually 116% of its normal daily attendance prior to COVID.


The 35% Capacity Represented by Normal Crowds vs % of Capacity
AK - 63%, MK - 55%, HS - 51%, Epcot - 30%

Math: Park Capacity (Average Crowd)
MK - 100k (55k avg crowd)
AK - 60k (38k)
HS - 60k (31k)
Epcot - 110k (34k)

Current crowds if at capacity for 35% would be X% of normal crowds:
AK - 56%, MK - 63%, HS - 65%, Epcot - 116%

That’s averaged over the whole year. Christmas week is the busiest week of the year, seeing far more people than the average, yet compared with last year, this Christmas is much less busy. It is in fact less busy than even an “average” day pre Covid.

 

[wilbret]

Except 35% capacity at Epcot is actually 116% of its normal daily attendance prior to COVID. It would obviously be much busier though if this was a normal year and the week between Christmas and New Years.


The 35% Capacity Represented by Normal Crowds vs % of Capacity
AK - 63%, MK - 55%, HS - 51%, Epcot - 30%

Math: Park Capacity (Average Crowd)
MK - 100k (55k avg crowd)
AK - 60k (38k)
HS - 60k (31k)
Epcot - 110k (34k)

Current crowds if at capacity for 35% would be X% of normal crowds:
AK - 56%, MK - 63%, HS - 65%, Epcot - 116%

What is the average attendance for Christmas to NYE?

 

[wilbret]

That’s averaged over the whole year. Christmas week is the busiest week of the year, seeing far more people than the average, yet compared with last year, this Christmas is much less busy. It is in fact less busy than even an “average” day pre Covid.

We just booked 4 days including NYE. Today. There were options at several DVC resorts. Seems crazy.

 

[sethschroeder]

That’s averaged over the whole year. Christmas week is the busiest week of the year, seeing far more people than the average, yet compared with last year, this Christmas is much less busy. It is in fact less busy than even an “average” day pre Covid.

Correct as outlined this day this year will be less busy vs what it was last year.

I am simply stating the "35% capacity" is actually still busier than roughly 340 of the 365 days of the year for Epcot.

What is the average attendance for Christmas to NYE?

No clue not sure if they publish those numbers.

 

[eeyoreandtink]

We just booked 4 days including NYE. Today. There were options at several DVC resorts. Seems crazy.

every resort that is currently open has some sort of opening for our dates, six weeks out for a holiday week. It is crazy.

 

[eeyoreandtink]

Correct as outlined this day this year will be less busy vs what it was last year.

I am simply stating the "35% capacity" is actually still busier than roughly 340 of the 365 days of the year for Epcot.



No clue not sure if they publish those numbers.

How are you getting 340 days? That doesn’t jive with 116% of average crowds. They would be 16% above average so 66% of days or 240 Days.

 

[sethschroeder]

How are you getting 340 days? That doesn’t jive with 116% of average crowds. They would be 16% above average so 66% of days or 240 Days.

What are you talking about? If Epcot were to fill to the 35% capacity that Disney currently has set they would actually be at 116% of the average attendance for a full year.

Roughly 340 days of the year they are likely below the park average attendance while roughly 25 days (10 days around Christmas/NYE and 15 days around Easter) drives the park attendance to be so high. It is slightly a guess as Disney does not publish daily attendance numbers to my knowledge.

If we were to cap Epcot at the average attendance in 2019 you would actually need to set the park capacity to 30% not 35%.

 

[eeyoreandtink]

What are you talking about? If Epcot were to fill to the 35% capacity that Disney currently has set they would actually be at 116% of the average attendance for a full year.

Roughly 340 days of the year they are likely below the park average attendance while roughly 25 days (10 days around Christmas/NYE and 15 days around Easter) drives the park attendance to be so high. It is slightly a guess as Disney does not publish daily attendance numbers to my knowledge.

If we were to cap Epcot at the average attendance in 2019 you would actually need to set the park capacity to 30% not 35%.

I was assuming you were using actual math, not just guessing. I showed the math based on the incomplete info we have. Your guess is far from accurate Because you are only taking into account a tiny fraction of the data. There is A lot more to crowd demographics than those 2 times. There is the entire month of spring break season, marsthon weekends, Epcot festivals, higher attendance in summer, and a dozen other things that influence crowd numbers to be outside of average. No way are there only 25 above average days.

 

[sethschroeder]

I was assuming you were using actual math, not just guessing.

The average attendance is actual numbers. The remainder is simply based on when the largest spikes occur while the remainder of the year has ebbs and flows but there is never a "bottom out" like there used to be 10 years ago.

No way are there only 25 above average days.

Except I never said there was only 25 days above average. I said there was likely 25 days that were 116% the average attendance (116% of average matters because that is current capacity).

I did forget about the days around 4th of July.

Its easy to predict these extreme outliers based on when phased closures have occurred at WDW (Easter week, 4th, week between Christmas/New Years).

You can have your own ideas but to be its very unlikely more than a handful of days are 116% of the average daily attendance.

Just to add:

• 25 days at 116% would mean remainder is at 98.82% of average attendance
• 25 days at 116% and 60 days at 70% attendance would mean remainder is at 105%

Like I said I just don't see more than those couple of week seeing attendance numbers to even hit the Epcot capacity that is in place right now.

 

[GooglyGip]

To the original poster, Disregard all the MATH. Take your usual precautions, Avoid the crowded areas if you feel uncomfortable( you will be able to). And have Fun!!!!

 

[MissPrice]

I get what Seth is saying about capacity. This week is the busiest of the year! Hopefully things will thin out in the coming days.
I got my vaccine last week so that gives me some more peace of mind. I'm getting excited now. 12 more days

 

[sethschroeder]

I get what Seth is saying about capacity. This week is the busiest of the year! Hopefully things will thin out in the coming days.
I got my vaccine last week so that gives me some more peace of mind. I'm getting excited now. 12 more days

I am going to be there in a couple weeks and I expect crowds to be fairly low. Have a great trip yourself as well!

 

[oompa_lumpia]

I went in August then again around Thanksgiving. It was night and day wrt the crowd levels and uneasiness. People will occasionally get too close for comfort, but it is largely avoidable if you're not in a rush and it doesn't suddenly downpour. MK felt like the worst. On busy days, that one spot by peter pan/small world needs to be avoided, as well as the walkway between frontierland and aloha isle, and the emporium shops. The others parks aren't too bad. Epcot definitely felt like the safest park, but when crowd levels are high, watch out for the cavalcades which tend to push people in food lines together. I honestly wish they would move those to the lagoon.

I'm actually planning on going the same time as you, hoping off-season and weekdays are lighter. Good luck to both of us.

 

[Orion Nebula]

it doesn't suddenly downpour.

Week old post but that is something I NEVER thought about...

 

[cdoc29]

The best way to Judge crowds is if and by how much Disney changes times at the park. Right now they are at bare minimum, If the week you are attending they suddenly add more hours that is a good indication they higher crowds for those dates. Alas they don't add to a few weeks before

 

[DebbieB]

I was looking at the Park Reservation calendar yesterday, it was solid green for the next few months for resort guests.

 

[MissPrice]

Late update:

We had a great time and the crowds were manageable and we DID NOT get sick. I think we hit the sweet spot as far as crowds go because apparently it's getting busy again. Disney does a great job of crowd control in lines as far as spacing. There is also hand sanitizer everywhere. My only issue was exiting attractions. There is no way to do that in a line so at times there were people bunched together. Just be mindful and keep yourself away from others. The longest we waited was for Test Track, about 45 mins.