Marathon Weekend Weather - Version 2012

[RunningGirl]

Accuweather
5k Start - 43F; Hi - 66F
Half Start – 46F; Hi – 72F
Full Start – 51F; Hi 76 F

Weatherforyou
5k Start – 51F; Hi – 64F
Half Start – 47F; Hi – 70F
Full Start – 47F; Hi - 68F

Weather Channel
5k Start – 55F

Norms (NWS)
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High

My vote goes to Weatherforyou. That 76 in Accuweather scares me!

 

[cewait]

My vote goes to Weatherforyou. That 76 in Accuweather scares me!

It should....

 

[cewait]

Cool,a front is making its way through the central Florida area today breaking the string of wamer than normal temps. While anything longer than New Year’s Eve weather is really a guess, it is great to see cool hitting WDW this week!



Accuweather
5k Start - 40F; Hi - 64F
Half Start – 48F; Hi – 70F
Full Start – 43F; Hi - 67F

Weatherforyou
5k Start – 48F; Hi – 72F
Half Start – 48F; Hi – 70F
Full Start – 49F; Hi - 75F

Weather Channel
5k Start – 54F; Hi – 75F
Half Start – 57F

Intellicast
5k Start – 53F; Hi – 73F
Half Start – 56F

Norms (NWS)
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High

 

[marathonmommy]

Cool,a front is making its way through the central Florida area today breaking the string of wamer than normal temps. While anything longer than New Year’s Eve weather is really a guess, it is great to see cool hitting WDW this week!



Accuweather
5k Start - 40F; Hi - 64F
Half Start – 48F; Hi – 70F
Full Start – 43F; Hi - 67F

Weatherforyou
5k Start – 48F; Hi – 72F
Half Start – 48F; Hi – 70F
Full Start – 49F; Hi - 75F

Weather Channel
5k Start – 54F; Hi – 75F
Half Start – 57F

Intellicast
5k Start – 53F; Hi – 73F
Half Start – 56F

Norms (NWS)
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High

Ummm.....are you ignoring the 29 MPH winds posted on rundisney today? I REALLY hope that is wrong. I can run in snow, rain, sleet . . . but wind?!

 

[Ronda93]

Yeah, the wind slays me, too.

Ronda

 

[stitchfan18]

Maybe the wind will die down when we're running against it, and pick up to push us along when we're running the opposite direction. Fingers crossed the wind isn't that bad for the races!

 

[ironz]

I don't know what it is with Accuweather...but I find they err on the low side for morning lows. So many times on my phone it has called for upper 20s in the mornings when it is really in the upper 30s or 40. Just sayin'...

It is looking like the trend is to be a little warmer than what we have had in Central Texas. I don't mind if it is a little warm, since my muscles are all jacked up from getting hurt. But for a lot of people, a little warm is going to feel HOT and they will need to hydrate/electrolyte/pace appropriately.

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

Even in this day and age, any forecast more than 3 days out is probably completely wrong. This goes doubly true for Central Florida.

 

[ironz]

Even in this day and age, any forecast more than 3 days out is probably completely wrong. This goes doubly true for Central Florida.

I completely agree. My post is more regarding the trends in the forecasts.

I've been in situations where the forecast was wrong even one day out...oh, to have the job security of a weatherman...

 

[cewait]

Accuweather
5k Start - 40F; Hi - 64F
Half Start – 48F; Hi – 70F
Full Start – 43F; Hi - 67F

Weatherforyou
5k Start – 48F; Hi – 72F
Half Start – 48F; Hi – 70F
Full Start – 49F; Hi - 75F

Weather Channel
5k Start – 54F; Hi – 75F
Half Start – 57F

Intellicast
5k Start – 53F; Hi – 73F
Half Start – 56F

Norms (NWS)
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High

 

[cewait]

Even in this day and age, any forecast more than 3 days out is probably completely wrong. This goes doubly true for Central Florida.

I agree. Though, while most folks agree that a 7-day forecast is nearly meaningless, we want to gut the industrialized nations economies through climate change regulation. Simply stated, we are using precisely the same models and saying if we do nothing the world as we know it will disappear.

Sorry, off my soapbox now. Climate change puts food on my table, I should be happy.

Back to the thread, I only post as the trends through the 15 days will give one some idea of what the underlying models are looking at. It's seems clear to me that while the overall Winter weather is expected to be normal to just a little warmer, there is a lot of cold weather energy that models are suggesting will move south - but cannot clearly indicate how far or intensely they will push. If the lows had been hovering around 50-58 through the period to date, I would probably not bring throw down clothing for both days. However, since a couple services keep sliding into the 40's throw down clothing is in the bag.

 

[marathonmommy]

Coach,
Make no apologies for your weather predicting. We asked for it, we want it, keep it coming!

 

[J3nn78]

hoping for a little bit warmer. But throw down clothing is packed anyway.

 

[RodBelding]

Coach, I appreciate the predictions greatly. Ran the full in 2010 when I had to be bundled at the starting line with a jacket and blanket, and didn't shed the jacket till mile 9, and my windpants till mile 19. Then ran the full last year, when I went to the start in shorts and a long sleeved shirt i shed at mile 9. I have no clue how to pack for this years Goofy as a result!

 

[cewait]

Coach, I appreciate the predictions greatly. Ran the full in 2010 when I had to be bundled at the starting line with a jacket and blanket, and didn't shed the jacket till mile 9, and my windpants till mile 19. Then ran the full last year, when I went to the start in shorts and a long sleeved shirt i shed at mile 9. I have no clue how to pack for this years Goofy as a result!

I will bet that you hated the fact you shed the pants at 19 when you turned north at 22. I know I shed my gloves about the same point and dang near tripped along World drive looking down for something in the way of gloves

 

[IamTrike]

Climate change puts food on my table, I should be happy.

mmmm... weather food. Meteorological munchies, barometric burritos.

Thanks for the forecast coach. I enjoy reading them. It helps me plan, but I'll still wind up packing running gear for most any climate.

 

[cewait]

I am betting that these temps all moderate to around 48-54 for the starts. With the hi temps all seemingly constant in the low 70’s and the amount of normal humidity, lower temps are tough to achieve without a front to lower the dew points. Plus, we picked up a set of throw down clothes this week. I carried one set of warm up pants to Disney for 6 year before using in 2010.

So the good news is that I think 2010 is not occurring again nor is 2007.



Accuweather
5k Start - 49F; Hi - 71F
Half Start – 46F; Hi – 74F
Full Start – 48F; Hi - 74F

Weatherforyou
5k Start – 46F; Hi – 57F
Half Start – 41F; Hi – 63F
Full Start – 42F; Hi - 66F

Weather Channel
5k Start – 52F; Hi – 70F
Half Start – 49F; Hi – 75F
Full Start – 54F; Hi – 72F

Intellicast
5k Start – 51F; Hi – 67F
Half Start – 48F; Hi – 73F
Full Start – 54F; Hi – 71F

Norms (NWS)
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High

 

[marathonmommy]

Coach,
And what is your prediction regarding those 29 mph winds we heard about a few days ago? Dreadful!

 

[cewait]

Coach,
And what is your prediction regarding those 29 mph winds we heard about a few days ago? Dreadful!

Near gale force winds are just not going to happen unless there is a really strong front pushing in. That forecast really sounded like an Orlando, Oklahoma forecast where they do get a lot of prairie winds off the front range on the Rockies.

Even if we do get a high wind (15 mph) you are not going to feel it as much as you would think. You are really only going to feel that wind pre-race, around mile 5 and possibly along the mile 18-22 range. There are just too many runners in front of you to really feel the effects of the wind. The places mentioned are longer cross wind sections where there is a lodge clearing to the north of the course. That is bout the only locations that a wind is really felt.

 

[RodBelding]

I will bet that you hated the fact you shed the pants at 19 when you turned north at 22. I know I shed my gloves about the same point and dang near tripped along World drive looking down for something in the way of gloves

Hahah, yeah that happened for sure! It was a double-edged sword though, as I hate running in windpants, so it was nice to be out of them... I kept my gloves on the whole 26.2 though!