Hurricane Dorian FINALLY moving - updates pg 10

[ksdave]

Another consideration for those already in FL. When Irma hit FL in 2017, my wife and I had already had a trip planned to Helen, GA for our 29th anniversary. We drove there ahead of most of the traffic and enjoyed our (ultimately) extended weekend. On our third day there, we met a woman from Sarasota, FL who had evacuated all the way to Helen, as it was the closest place she could find an open hotel room. She was telling us that the normal 9 hour drive had taken her almost 24 hours! I-75 was a parking lot from southern FL all the way to ATL. So, if you are needing to drive home either on I-75 or I-95, please plan for a very long trip and have plenty of gas, water, food, etc. in the car with you.

 

[JimMIA]

Katrina was a Cat 5 when the eye came through where I live in MS. It basically leveled most of the MS coast. The water pushed up toward New Orleans and the levee broke which is how all that got flooded. I cancelled my Disney trip for this weekend yesterday. Was supposed to fly in Sat and leave Wed. Delta let me change with no fees, Disney refunded the dining plan and put the points back in my account. Now rebooked for March.
Google photos of damage in Mississippi after Katrina, and you will see why I refuse to ride out this storm at a Disney resort, or anywhere for that matter.
I've been planning this trip for 11 months, waking up early and booking hotel/ADRs/and fastpasses as soon as they open. But all the planning in the world will not make me fly right into a hurricane.

Right. MS and AL both got hit worse than New Orleans, especially MS. But there was plenty of misery to go around. The NO damage was almost exclusively water damage, which as I said above is the biggest threat.

 

[JimMIA]

Another consideration for those already in FL. When Irma hit FL in 2017, my wife and I had already had a trip planned to Helen, GA for our 29th anniversary. We drove there ahead of most of the traffic and enjoyed our (ultimately) extended weekend. On our third day there, we met a woman from Sarasota, FL who had evacuated all the way to Helen, as it was the closest place she could find an open hotel room. She was telling us that the normal 9 hour drive had taken her almost 24 hours! I-75 was a parking lot from southern FL all the way to ATL. So, if you are needing to drive home either on I-75 or I-95, please plan for a very long trip and have plenty of gas, water, food, etc. in the car with you.

Yeah, for Irma, we evacuated to a relative's lake house near Madison, GA, south of Atlanta because of a disabled Grandma. We left at 4 PM on Thursday, and stopped 7 hours later at Vero Beach -- 153 miles, a smooth 7 hours.

On Friday, we drove 17 more hours to Madison, GA -- a little over 500 miles, 17 hours.

We averaged less than 30 mph for the 24 hour drive.

NEVER AGAIN!

 

[katytrott]

I would avoid being in this storm at all costs and fly the whole family home before it hits. No amount of money would keep me in the path of a cat 3 or higher. The aftermath can be sometimes worse than when the storm is actually hitting. Think no AC and it's very hot! The smell outside of the rotting food people were throwing out from their fridges from no power was horrendous.

British Airways won’t fly us home before the storm - they say we can change it to after it hits!!

 

[Oozma_Kappa]

British Airways won’t fly us home before the storm - they say we can change it to after it hits!!

Can you cancel the flight and book the airline for a different trip? Are there any other airlines you could book with to get outta there?

 

[Welsh_Dragon]

British Airways won’t fly us home before the storm - they say we can change it to after it hits!!

Maybe contact your travel insurers.

 

[OKW Lover]

For those considering the impact of the storm on a WDW trip, remember that all those horror stories about flooding are about coastal areas being inundated by storm surge. WDW is ~60 miles inland and won't be affected that way. So don't be worried about that kind of damage.

Its the rain and wind damage that could affect this area (I live 2 miles from the castle) and Disney is well equipped to handle that. Their system of drainage canals and surface water drains can handle a lot of rain. They do significant storm preparation to lessen the amount of flying objects that could cause damage but obviously not everything can be prevented.

 

[joelkfla]

Friday 11am track has the center of the storm moving NNW just east of Orlando & WDW early Wednesday morning, remaining a minimal hurricane. Probability of TS force winds in Orlando has increased to 80%, Hurricane force winds 32%. The probabilities may actually be higher, as the current forecast only extends to 8am Wednesday and there are significant probabilities in the last forecast period of 8am Tuesday to 8am Wednesday.

"Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time" of TS winds is around 8pm Sunday; "Most Likely Arrival" is around 8pm Monday. It is forecast to be a slow-moving storm which may impact Orlando for 3 days or more, with total rainfall possibly around 10 inches.

(I'm heading out now to get some more sandbags. I'm 10 miles north of MK.)

 

[katytrott]

Can you cancel the flight and book the airline for a different trip? Are there any other airlines you could book with to get outta there?

Good idea but we have looked at that. Transatlantic flight before storm are entirely out of our price range for 6 of us. Physically do not have the pennies after saving up for 2 years for this trip!

 

[katytrott]

Maybe contact your travel insurers.

Will look into this fully but looks like they won’t pay us if BA are offering change of flight for free even though it’s for after the storm

Talking to other Brits here, everyone is quite relaxed about the storm and about flights cancelled till after it. My individual concern really is getting off ok on Mon and leaving my mum here to weather it on her own in the middle of nowhere. I’m at the stage where I’m hoping flights will be cancelled on mon so we have to stay with her!

 

[JimMIA]

Friday 11am track has the center of the storm moving NNW just east of Orlando & WDW early Wednesday morning, remaining a minimal hurricane. Probability of TS force winds in Orlando has increased to 80%, Hurricane force winds 32%. The probabilities may actually be higher, as the current forecast only extends to 8am Wednesday and there are significant probabilities in the last forecast period of 8am Tuesday to 8am Wednesday.

"Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time" of TS winds is around 8pm Sunday; "Most Likely Arrival" is around 8pm Monday. It is forecast to be a slow-moving storm which may impact Orlando for 3 days or more, with total rainfall possibly around 10 inches.

(I'm heading out now to get some more sandbags. I'm 10 miles north of MK.)

Yes, there has been some shifting around for the last 48 hours. First the track shifted south almost to West Palm Beach.

But then I put up most of my shutters, so it shifted away from Miami. I'm expecting one more shift to the south to force me to finish the shutters, and then it will probably go the other way.

IF the storm passes EAST or NORTH of Orlando, that's a good thing for WDW because it will put Orlando on the weak side of the storm. If it passes SOUTH of Orlando, you will be on the dirty side of the storm.

 

[JimMIA]

Friday 11am track has the center of the storm moving NNW just east of Orlando & WDW early Wednesday morning, remaining a minimal hurricane. Probability of TS force winds in Orlando has increased to 80%, Hurricane force winds 32%. The probabilities may actually be higher, as the current forecast only extends to 8am Wednesday and there are significant probabilities in the last forecast period of 8am Tuesday to 8am Wednesday.

You know... looking at the detail, it looks like the path may go right over the top of Orlando.

• Tuesday morning 27.0 N, 80.4 W
• MCO is 28.4 N, 81.3 W
• Wednesday morning 29.0 N 81.5 W

Of course that will change 10 times between now and Wednesday morning, but it's interesting to look at.

 

[JimMIA]

For other readers, here's what Joel and I are talking about:

Friday 8 AM



Friday 11 AM


If you look closely at the Wednesday locations, you will see a subtle shift to the EAST.

 

[SaintsManiac]

Katrina was a Cat 5 when the eye came through where I live in MS. It basically leveled most of the MS coast

It was actually a 4 when it landed, then 3 when it landed again, which is why I say not to pay attention to cat numbers. Once a hurricane becomes a hurricane it's going to mess things up wherever it lands.

ETA: Some say 3 and some say 4. Again it really doesn't matter.

https://www.history.com/topics/natural-disasters-and-environment/hurricane-katrina

 

[Oozma_Kappa]

It was actually a 4 when it landed, then 3 when it landed again, which is why I say not to pay attention to cat numbers. Once a hurricane becomes a hurricane it's going to mess things up wherever it lands.

ETA: Some say 3 and some say 4. Again it really doesn't matter.

https://www.history.com/topics/natural-disasters-and-environment/hurricane-katrina

I appreciate being corrected. At any rate, being on a parked cruise ship for Thanksgiving and a FEMA trailer for Christmas is no picnic. Dont really need the link to read about what I experienced, but I guess, thank you?

 

[joviroxx]

But then I put up most of my shutters, so it shifted away from Miami. I'm expecting one more shift to the south to force me to finish the shutters, and then it will probably go the other way.

Im begging my husband to put off the shutters as late as possible. I hate living in a cave! But he hates putting them up in the rain.

 

[SaintsManiac]

I appreciate being corrected. At any rate, being on a parked cruise ship for Thanksgiving and a FEMA trailer for Christmas is no picnic. Dont really need the link to read about what I experienced, but I guess, thank you?

You don’t need to get defensive. I am from NOLA. Katrina changed my life. The category is a big misconception even this many years later. The link was not so much for you, but for others who think only a 5 is worth being scared of.

 

[Oozma_Kappa]

You don’t need to get defensive. I am from NOLA. Katrina changed my life. The category is a big misconception even this many years later. The link was not so much for you, but for others who think only a 5 is worth being scared of.

You are right, and I stand corrected. I appreciate your valued input and the internet link to backup your statement. I apologize for misconcieving the readers.

 

[ScubaCat]

We're scheduled to fly in on Tuesday. We also barely escaped before Irma hit 2 years ago. As a public service knowing my luck with hurricanes and WDW trips, I may now start posting my trip dates in advance so people can plan accordingly. (I was also at OKW for Hurricane Wilma in 2005, and at Rehoboth Beach, DE for 'Hurricane Charlie' when I was a kid. I may seriously be cursed.)

OH, and I also had a flight booked out of Atlanta when the power went out at the airport on 12/16/2017.

So yeah, I'll start giving everyone a heads up!

 

[js]

We're scheduled to fly in on Tuesday. We also barely escaped before Irma hit 2 years ago. As a public service knowing my luck with hurricanes and WDW trips, I may now start posting my trip dates in advance so people can plan accordingly. (I was also at OKW for Hurricane Wilma in 2005, and at Rehoboth Beach, DE for 'Hurricane Charlie' when I was a kid. I may seriously be cursed.)

OH, and I also had a flight booked out of Atlanta when the power went out at the airport on 12/16/2017.

So yeah, I'll start giving everyone a heads up!

We flew in a day early before Irma and there were about 15 people on our full size JetBlue plane.

Are you still keeping Tuesday? We had a 2:20 pm flight out of Newark on Wednesday and I just moved it to Thursday morning.