Hurricane Dorian FINALLY moving - updates pg 10

[JimMIA]

Thursday 5 PM info

Here's the map.

The MAIN thing you need to remember about this map is that the average error at the later stages of this forecast is 200 MILES in any direction. So do NOT fixate on any particular point. Nobody on Earth knows where any storm is going to be at any moment in time.



Bottom line: Dorian is expected to make landfall on the central Florida coast as a Category 4 Major Hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph or so and gusts to 150 or so.

This is a very dangerous hurricane, capable of inflicting catastrophic damage.

Following landfall, it is too early to predict the storm's path. We will know much better on Saturday.

 

[JimMIA]

For those flying -- here is the expected wind map, showing the earliest reasonable arrival of tropical storm force (39 MPH) winds.



The map shows strong winds beginning about 8 AM SUNDAY morning. You can expect strong winds through TUESDAY night IF the hurricane follows the current projected track.

Again...the AVERAGE ERROR 5 days out is +/- 200 MILES in any direction, so the weather is still pretty much of a guess at this point.

 

[Bozni]

Thanks Jim. Your posts and knowledge have been extremely helpful.

In your opinion, is it reasonable to assume that a Saturday (9/7) arrival into MCO will be unaffected by this storm?

 

[JimMIA]

Thanks Jim. Your posts and knowledge have been extremely helpful.

In your opinion, is it reasonable to assume that a Saturday (9/7) arrival into MCO will be unaffected by this storm?

This is a GUESS.

But under normal circumstances, a storm arriving on the 1st would be long-gone by the 7th. It's possible the thing could stall, but I've never seen one stall for a week.

 

[RedWolf95]

We have reservations for arriving Saturday. So I spoke to two CM's at reservations today and both said that we could cancel/reschedule up until our arrival without any charges even though a Hurricane warning as not been issued yet. One indicated that due to the state of emergency that the policy to allow cancellations was in effect. That being said I have seen nothing official announced by Disney. Does anybody have any idea whether what I was told by these CM's is accurate? The thing is given when Tropical storm force winds might reach Florida they may not issue a hurricane warning until sometime Saturday which would be after we arrive and too late to cancel at that point.

 

[Katie2]

We have reservations for arriving Saturday. So I spoke to two CM's at reservations today and both said that we could cancel/reschedule up until our arrival without any charges even though a Hurricane warning as not been issued yet. One indicated that due to the state of emergency that the policy to allow cancellations was in effect. That being said I have seen nothing official announced by Disney. Does anybody have any idea whether what I was told by these CM's is accurate? The thing is given when Tropical storm force winds might reach Florida they may not issue a hurricane warning until sometime Saturday which would be after we arrive and too late to cancel at that point.

The entire state is under a state of emergency. You can cancel and they will issue a full refund. I cancelled this morning, and was issued a full refund. You will need to call and speak to a CM as online cancellations are charging a cancellation penalty. Good luck!

 

[JimMIA]

We have reservations for arriving Saturday. So I spoke to two CM's at reservations today and both said that we could cancel/reschedule up until our arrival without any charges even though a Hurricane warning as not been issued yet. One indicated that due to the state of emergency that the policy to allow cancellations was in effect. That being said I have seen nothing official announced by Disney. Does anybody have any idea whether what I was told by these CM's is accurate? The thing is given when Tropical storm force winds might reach Florida they may not issue a hurricane warning until sometime Saturday which would be after we arrive and too late to cancel at that point.

Shelly posted a link to Disney's official policy on this thread: https://www.disboards.com/threads/h...ne-policy-and-faq-link.3767308/#post-61016607

 

[RedWolf95]

The entire state is under a state of emergency. You can cancel and they will issue a full refund. I cancelled this morning, and was issued a full refund. You will need to call and speak to a CM as online cancellations are charging a cancellation penalty. Good luck!

Thanks Katie2, what was your arrival date?

 

[Katie2]

Thanks Katie2, what was your arrival date?

Friday, 8/30 - Monday, 9/2

 

[ILoveMyDVC]

For those flying -- here is the expected wind map, showing the earliest reasonable arrival of tropical storm force (39 MPH) winds.

View attachment 430818

The map shows strong winds beginning about 8 AM SUNDAY morning. You can expect strong winds through TUESDAY night IF the hurricane follows the current projected track.

Again...the AVERAGE ERROR 5 days out is +/- 200 MILES in any direction, so the weather is still pretty much of a guess at this point.

Jim,
My mother died this evening. I need to know if it is reasonable that we will be able to get home on our 1:00 p.m. flight out of MCO on Saturday. Leaving tomorrow will add tremendous chaos into an already maniacal week

 

[Welsh_Dragon]

Jim,
My mother died this evening. I need to know if it is reasonable that we will be able to get home on our 1:00 p.m. flight out of MCO on Saturday. Leaving tomorrow will add tremendous chaos into an already maniacal week

I am so sorry for your loss.

 

[JimMIA]

Jim,
My mother died this evening. I need to know if it is reasonable that we will be able to get home on our 1:00 p.m. flight out of MCO on Saturday. Leaving tomorrow will add tremendous chaos into an already maniacal week

I'm also very sorry for your loss.

On the flights, it depends on the airline, but I think you will be okay on Saturday. The storm has slowed way down again and it looks like Orlando will not be seeing tropical storm force winds until Sunday morning.

 

[JimMIA]

Okay, here is the FRIDAY 8 AM forecast track for Dorian. Three major developments:

• Most important, Dorian has slowed way down again, making landfall now anticipated TUESDAY morning
• The projected path has shifted a few miles further south, now projected for the West Palm Beach - Ft. Pierce area
• The anticipated turn to the north around landfall has become more likely, as reflected in the forecast track.

Keep in mind that there is a very large average margin of error 4-5 days out, so the storm could actually be anywhere within the cone



Dorian is expected to grow and strengthen and become an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm by landfall. For comparison, I believe Katrina was a Cat 4 storm when it hit New Orleans in 2005, and Andrew was a Cat 5 when it hit south of Miami in 1992. Both storms caused catastrophic damage.

So, follow this one closely.

Important note: In discussing hurricanes, we focus on wind strength way too much. The most serious damage, and greatest threat to life and property however, is flooding. Dorian is expected to be moving very slowly at landfall, and may even stall for a while before moving north.

To give an idea of HOW SLOW we're talking, look at the dots for 2 AM Monday and 2 AM Wednesday. That path is only a little more than 200 miles -- in 48 hours -- 4.0-4.5 mph!

That will mean more inundation of coastal areas from storm surge, a LOT more rainfall, and much more serious likelihood of inland flooding.

The wind strength of Dorian will decrease as it moves inland, but the real threat to life and property will increase greatly because of the longer time period of storm effects and greatly increased water damage.

 

[JimMIA]

For your flight planning displeasure, here are the estimates for arrival of tropical storm winds. This aspect of the storm is actually better for those visiting WDW over Labor Day weekend -- easier to get in/out on Saturday, and maybe even Sunday .

 

[cdoc29]

We were supposed to be leaving tomorrow for our Disney World Trip but some bully named Dorian said we couldn’t go. WDW central reservations was awesome as usual when we called to cancel. There goes all that planning and prep of the last 6+months. It was a sad thing indeed cancelling all those hard fought for FastPasses and Dining Reservations. Fortunately we have been able to rebook most things or their equivalent like Savi’s workshop for our next trip.

Time to reset the Disney Trip countdown clock...... 3 more days till we go to Disneyland!

 

[runnermama78]

Ugh...I get more nervous with every report that delays the arrival. We’re supposed to fly in Saturday September 7th. With the earlier forecast, I felt more confident that our flight would run as scheduled. Now I’m not so sure.

 

[Oozma_Kappa]

Okay, here is the FRIDAY 8 AM forecast track for Dorian. Three major developments:

• Most important, Dorian has slowed way down again, making landfall now anticipated TUESDAY morning
• The projected path has shifted a few miles further south, now projected for the West Palm Beach - Ft. Pierce area
• The anticipated turn to the north around landfall has become more likely, as reflected in the forecast track.

Keep in mind that there is a very large average margin of error 4-5 days out, so the storm could actually be anywhere within the cone

View attachment 431013

Dorian is expected to grow and strengthen and become an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm by landfall. For comparison, I believe Katrina was a Cat 4 storm when it hit New Orleans in 2005, and Andrew was a Cat 5 when it hit south of Miami in 1992. Both storms caused catastrophic damage.

So, follow this one closely.

Important note: In discussing hurricanes, we focus on wind strength way too much. The most serious damage, and greatest threat to life and property however, is flooding. Dorian is expected to be moving very slowly at landfall, and may even stall for a while before moving north.

To give an idea of HOW SLOW we're talking, look at the dots for 2 AM Monday and 2 AM Wednesday. That path is only a little more than 200 miles -- in 48 hours -- 4.0-4.5 mph!

That will mean more inundation of coastal areas from storm surge, a LOT more rainfall, and much more serious likelihood of inland flooding.

The wind strength of Dorian will decrease as it moves inland, but the real threat to life and property will increase greatly because of the longer time period of storm effects and greatly increased water damage.

Katrina was a Cat 5 when the eye came through where I live in MS. It basically leveled most of the MS coast. The water pushed up toward New Orleans and the levee broke which is how all that got flooded. I cancelled my Disney trip for this weekend yesterday. Was supposed to fly in Sat and leave Wed. Delta let me change with no fees, Disney refunded the dining plan and put the points back in my account. Now rebooked for March.
Google photos of damage in Mississippi after Katrina, and you will see why I refuse to ride out this storm at a Disney resort, or anywhere for that matter.
I've been planning this trip for 11 months, waking up early and booking hotel/ADRs/and fastpasses as soon as they open. But all the planning in the world will not make me fly right into a hurricane.

 

[katytrott]

We are here from the UK and due to fly home from Tampa 6.30pm on Mon. My Mum is also with us but is staying here a few extra days on her own and is flying home on Saturday 7th. We are staying on our own in a condo in Davenport near to WDW.

Such a dilemma for us as British Airways have given us no info other than to say that if we are “due to fly from MCO or Tampa on Monday or tues we can reschedule free of charge our flights to anytime up to the 7th”

So the dilemma is do we reschedule for later assuming our flight will be disrupted and get a slot home in a few days, but take the risk that the forecast is wrong and it comes through later in the week and we are then in the path?

Or do we assume the storm will move through later in the week and keep the flight as it is and potentially end up in a back log of cancelled flights if it moves through on Monday, with no flight booked which takes us longer to get home?

I have to say I’m not overly worried about getting home on time (the kids will miss their 1st few days of the start of school from summer break, but no biggie!) but it is all my husband who’s in a state as he’s self employed and worried about more loss of earnings.

My other MAJOR concern is if we do leave ok on Mon, my 73 year old recently widowed mother will be riding this storm out on her own. Like I said she won’t have the facilities of a WDW resort to look after her, and she gets anxious with a slight UK breeze!! She does have her own rental car but has only really used it to drive to and from the closest Publix here - she’s a tad anxious driving on the other side of the road to us and very anxious not knowing the roads etc

If anyone has any thoughts on this I’d be grateful

 

[ILoveMyDVC]

I'm also very sorry for your loss.

On the flights, it depends on the airline, but I think you will be okay on Saturday. The storm has slowed way down again and it looks like Orlando will not be seeing tropical storm force winds until Sunday morning.

Thank you. It's Southwest. They are usually heavily scheduled east coast to MCO I can't imagine they'll want to cancel.

 

[Oozma_Kappa]

We are here from the UK and due to fly home from Tampa 6.30pm on Mon. My Mum is also with us but is staying here a few extra days on her own and is flying home on Saturday 7th. We are staying on our own in a condo in Davenport near to WDW.

Such a dilemma for us as British Airways have given us no info other than to say that if we are “due to fly from MCO or Tampa on Monday or tues we can reschedule free of charge our flights to anytime up to the 7th”

So the dilemma is do we reschedule for later assuming our flight will be disrupted and get a slot home in a few days, but take the risk that the forecast is wrong and it comes through later in the week and we are then in the path?

Or do we assume the storm will move through later in the week and keep the flight as it is and potentially end up in a back log of cancelled flights if it moves through on Monday, with no flight booked which takes us longer to get home?

I have to say I’m not overly worried about getting home on time (the kids will miss their 1st few days of the start of school from summer break, but no biggie!) but it is all my husband who’s in a state as he’s self employed and worried about more loss of earnings.

My other MAJOR concern is if we do leave ok on Mon, my 73 year old recently widowed mother will be riding this storm out on her own. Like I said she won’t have the facilities of a WDW resort to look after her, and she gets anxious with a slight UK breeze!! She does have her own rental car but has only really used it to drive to and from the closest Publix here - she’s a tad anxious driving on the other side of the road to us and very anxious not knowing the roads etc

If anyone has any thoughts on this I’d be grateful

I would avoid being in this storm at all costs and fly the whole family home before it hits. No amount of money would keep me in the path of a cat 3 or higher. The aftermath can be sometimes worse than when the storm is actually hitting. Think no AC and it's very hot! The smell outside of the rotting food people were throwing out from their fridges from no power was horrendous.