Hurricane Dorian FINALLY moving - updates pg 10

[joelkfla]

Venerable local forecaster Tom Terry is saying this could be an unprecedented event. The center of the cone passes directly over Orlando. No major (Cat 3) storm has ever hit the Florida east coast as far north as Orlando. With the current forecast, the storm will likely continue all the way across the peninsula as a Cat 2 with 100mph or higher winds, emerging into the Gulf where it may re-intensify.

Terry says the model that had the storm recurving up to the north has moved closer to the other models, and the chances of major changes in storm path are rapidly shrinking.

Terry has a history of forecasting path changes before NOAA, so I tend to trust him.

Hope my new post-Irma roof holds up. Hello, global warming!

 

[JimMIA]

Venerable local forecaster Tom Terry is saying this could be an unprecedented event. The center of the cone passes directly over Orlando. No major (Cat 3) storm has ever hit the Florida east coast as far north as Orlando. With the current forecast, the storm will likely continue all the way across the peninsula as a Cat 2 with 100mph or higher winds, emerging into the Gulf where it may re-intensify.

Terry says the model that had the storm recurving up to the north has moved closer to the other models, and the chances of major changes in storm path are rapidly shrinking.

Terry has a history of forecasting path changes before NOAA, so I tend to trust him.

Hope my new post-Irma roof holds up. Hello, global warming!

Yes. Sadly, I agree with Mr. Terry.

The model that was showing a recurvature is GFS, my personal fave and the one I've found to be most accurate 5-7 days out. For years, I've seen GFS holding firm and the others moving in line, but not this time.

The good thing is that you are right in the bullseye 5 days out. That almost certainly means the storm will go somewhere else. WAY too early to tell yet.

I just hope it doesn't come south!

 

[JimMIA]

The most recent computer model runs, posted at 8 PM, did not change. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

 

[LadyBeBop]

The most recent computer model runs, posted at 8 PM, did not change. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Is it time to worry, yet?

Signed the mother of a cruiser heading back to Port Everglades on Sunday....yeah I know they’ll keep her safe, but just getting home timely...

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

Is it time to worry, yet?

Signed the mother of a cruiser heading back to Port Everglades on Sunday....yeah I know they’ll keep her safe, but just getting home timely...

More than likely the cruise could be rerouted and they will dock the ship in Tampa and bus everyone back to Port Everglades to avoid the storm. It all depends on the timing of the storm. During hurricane Faye in 2008 the Wonder ship sailed from Port Everglades when it was suppose set sail from Port Canaveral. So they had everyone park at Port Canaveral and bused everyone to Port Everglade and at the end of the cruise they were able to dock in Port Canaveral.

 

[Christi0909]

In the event it does affect Orlando, how many days are we looking at? We get to WDW on Friday, just wondering how many park days I should anticipate being a washout

 

[Cinderumbrella]

In the event it does affect Orlando, how many days are we looking at? We get to WDW on Friday, just wondering how many park days I should anticipate being a washout

Based on current timeline, I’m thinking Monday for sure. Maybe part of Tuesday? I think it will depend on where the eye goes. The Euro is definitely trending South.

 

[Searc]

Updated track will come out in about 45 minutes.

 

[Oozma_Kappa]

Can i have my groceries delivered Friday instead of my arrival time? I will land Saturday at 1:20pm and am headed to CCV.

 

[houseofduck]

The 11pm update is out already.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2019/tropical-storm-dorian?map=forecast

 

[Oozma_Kappa]

Accidentally wrote twice.

 

[JimMIA]

THURSDAY 5 AM info

Again, I'm going to wait until 11 AM when there will be much more info available, but here's where we are right now:

• Dorian's track remains basically unchanged as far as path in concerned
• The timing has changed considerably, with Dorian expected to make landfall roughly 12 hours later than previously forecast
• In addition, Dorian is now predicted to slow down quite a bit after landfall, now forecast to be in the Orlando area overnight Mon/Tues AM
• The models have changed very little, but we need to wait and see what today brings

 

[js]

Thank you for all this information.
I have a flight out of NY at 2:00 pm on Wednesday. Not sure if I need to do anything proactive on my part or just wait.

As of now, I don't even see anything on United website to say about anyone wanting to change on Sunday or Monday..

Will be watching.

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

Watching breaking news on the weather channel right now and they are say it could be a Cat 4 hurricane

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

Watching breaking news on the weather channel right now and they are say it will be a Cat 4 hurricane

Thank you for all this information.
I have a flight out of NY at 2:00 pm on Wednesday. Not sure if I need to do anything proactive on my part or just wait.

As of now, I don't even see anything on United website to say about anyone wanting to change on Sunday or Monday..

Will be watching.

I would wait till they issue a travel waiver other wise you will have to pay the change fee's and possible increase in flight price to make the change

 

[Searc]

Latest projection is Cat 4 at landfall on Monday morning.

 

[joelkfla]

As of 11am, the Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds in Orlando is about Sunday 8 a.m.

The Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds is about Sunday 8 p.m.

There's a 25% probability of Hurricane Force Winds in Orlando thru 8 a.m. Tuesday, which is as far out as the current forecast extends. (Virtually all of that probability is in the 4-5 day range, which is considered to have a high margin of error.)

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

Can i have my groceries delivered Friday instead of my arrival time? I will land Saturday at 1:20pm and am headed to CCV.
[/QU I would not order anything to be delivered since you have no idea if your flight will actual occur.

Can i have my groceries delivered Friday instead of my arrival time? I will land Saturday at 1:20pm and am headed to CCV.

That is if grocery shopping services are even able to do the shopping. A lot of stores are out of grocery items now and no telling when they will be restocked.

 

[JimMIA]

Watching breaking news on the weather channel right now and they are say it could be a Cat 4 hurricane

Yes, Category 4 at landfall, but then weakening rapidly to Cat 2. Very dangerous storm.

 

[Oozma_Kappa]

I am canceling. I'm just wondering about refunds on meal plans and dvc points.