Are we being snowed by posted wait times?

[FlipHipster]

At the end of 2014, EasyWDW found a way to get Disney's "actual wait time" (I'm guessing the current red card data).
It seemed close to accurate and was lower more times than high (not unusual seeing 50% lower now and then)

I loved using the actual, as it made it easy to "zig" through low wait times while others "zagged", even on a peak Christmas week.

Unfortunately those semi-public actual wait times didn't last long.

What happened was, someone posted the source code for a pebble version of the Disney mobile app online. The source revealed the call to Disney backend service that provided posted wait times. It was pretty simple to figure out the call that would return the actual wait times which wasn't restricted or secured in any way, and lots of folks caught on real quick. Apparently Disney eventually caught on as well and blocked it which was the right move.

It was fun to play with and somewhat eye opening, but only marginally useful in my experience. It was great if the timing worked out, you could get lucky and get in a line with posted 30/actual 15 and get on in 15 mins. You could also get in that line and wait 45mins or an hour if enough FP+ riders show up and claim their spot in line. We ended up in both scenarios and eventually concluded that its dang near impossible to tell how many people are actually in the queue at any given time regardless of the posted or actual times. The problem is that even though the line may look short there are actually dozens, maybe hundreds? of other guests waiting in that line. You can't see them because they are in a virtual queue but they could show up anytime and claim their spot pushing you from 20th to 120th, or maybe they don't show up and you cruise right on


I do find it strange that after more than 2 years, they are still using the red cards since almost everyone in the park has a magic band that is way more accurate and requires no guest interaction other than just wearing the thing.

 

[MeganMango]

All that I know if a wait says 10 minutes or under, it's basically a walk on! Just with my experience on my last trip. I thought disneys app was pretty accurate for the most part.

 

[JimmyV]

and eventually concluded that its dang near impossible to tell how many people are actually in the queue at any given time regardless of the posted or actual times.

Bingo! I don't think it is anyone's intent to deceive. I just think that FP returns and standby lines are somewhat incompatible systems that feed into the same loading area making actual wait time calculation impossible and estimated wait time calculation very difficult.

 

[tripletmomsrock]

Here now and we have been using the Lines App and have found it to be pretty accurate.

 

[Babe the Blue Ox]

Bingo! I don't think it is anyone's intent to deceive. I just think that FP returns and standby lines are somewhat incompatible systems that feed into the same loading area making actual wait time calculation impossible and estimated wait time calculation very difficult.

It's definitely intentional. Read the last paragraph of the Touring Tips section on this link:

https://touringplans.com/magic-kingdom/attractions/space-mountain#

This crowd-control technique, known as “stacking,” discourages visitors from getting in line. (Stacking is also used at several Disney attractions during the hour before closing to ensure that the ride will be able to close on schedule.) Despite the apparently long line, the wait is usually no longer than if you had been allowed to queue inside.

 

[JimmyV]

It's definitely intentional. Read the last paragraph of the Touring Tips section on this link:

https://touringplans.com/magic-kingdom/attractions/space-mountain#

This crowd-control technique, known as “stacking,” discourages visitors from getting in line. (Stacking is also used at several Disney attractions during the hour before closing to ensure that the ride will be able to close on schedule.) Despite the apparently long line, the wait is usually no longer than if you had been allowed to queue inside.

I can buy that in the last hour or two of park operation. But at 11:00 a.m.? That is tin foil hat thinking. I know way too many CMs who operated rides and not one of them admits to manipulating wait times mid day.

 

[clippers6]

I've always found Disney fairly accurate with posted times often slightly longer than actual waits. Parks that charge for their virtual queues and front of line passes are the ones that seem to really pad their wait times so that people will feel it necessary to buy the premium products.

 

[momtotaryn]

I think that Disney does their best to give accurate wait times using the red card lanyard system. Our family was given the lanyards multiple times on our recent trip.

My niece was given the card a few times during our recent trip. Don't know whey she always got picked from all 8 of us. We all told her she's special.

We used touring plans lines app and found that to be fairly accurate. My DH was posting actual wait times occasionally. In most cases, the actual wait times were less than posted wait times.

 

[JimmyV]

My niece was given the card a few times during our recent trip. Don't know whey she always got picked from all 8 of us. We all told her she's special.

Yes, but the conspiracy theorists will insist that this was just to get a baseline reading from which to alter the posted time as part of the overall disinformation agenda.

 

[ArielSRL]

My niece was given the card a few times during our recent trip. Don't know whey she always got picked from all 8 of us. We all told her she's special.

We used touring plans lines app and found that to be fairly accurate. My DH was posting actual wait times occasionally. In most cases, the actual wait times were less than posted wait times.

They always gave it to my 4 yr old too. Even once, they started to give it to my dad but then pulled it back to give to my son. I think they pick kids just to make them feel special.

 

[mickeysgirl17]

In my experience, wait times are usually shorter than the actual wait that is posted.

 

[momtotaryn]

They always gave it to my 4 yr old too. Even once, they started to give it to my dad but then pulled it back to give to my son. I think they pick kids just to make them feel special.

But my niece is 20 years old! She does look young, but definitely not a youngster!

 

[ArielSRL]

But my niece is 20 years old! She does look young, but definitely not a youngster!

Well there goes my theory!