Anyone concerned about the Coronavirus in WDW ?

[wallawallakids]

Washington just announced the second US death. We live in WA. I’m still not panicking, but I have to be honest that I don’t feel great about this and less and less comfortable with traveling in the future.

 

[Selket]

Florida has its first two presumptive cases in Hillsborough and Manatee counties.

And a public health emergency declared in Florida by the governor: https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/p...e-test-presumptively-positive-for-coronavirus

My guess is this is going to start affecting travel plans. Now that they are finally testing people the number of cases are probably going to rise rapidly.

 

[Haley R]

And a public health emergency declared in Florida by the governor: https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/p...e-test-presumptively-positive-for-coronavirus

I’m getting kind of worried about going back to wdw on Thursday. We have a fp for MMRR but I’m not sure if it’s worth it to go and be around so many people again

 

[SaintsManiac]

I’m getting kind of worried about going back to wdw on Thursday. We have a fp for MMRR but I’m not sure if it’s worth it to go and be around so many people again

I really don’t blame you. The ride isn’t going anywhere. If I were pregnant I would probably avoid WDW.

 

[Griz1]

So, our trip is set for March 19th and like many of you with upcoming trips I've been trying to get some sense of where things may stand at that point.

Just to hang my hat on SOMETHING I went to the Johns Hopkins Covid-19 tracking map where, among other things, it tracks the number of confirmed infections outside of China (graph is on the lower right of the website).

Assuming (which, I know, makes an a** of you and me) some correlation between how the virus spread outside of China and how it will spread in the US, you can look at that data to try to project a bit into the United States' future.

Today in the US, there are 84 confirmed cases.

39 of those are Americans repatriated from abroad which means 45 are infections that occurred inside the US.

According to the Johns Hopkins map, on January 25, there were 40 confirmed infections outside of China which is close to the 45 confirmed infections that have been acquired in the US as of today, March 1.

If I were to use that historical data to project where the US will stand on March 19th, I would guess about 523 confirmed cases (the same as on Feb 13, for the world outside of China).

Who knows how predictive the past will be of the future, but it will be interesting to see if the growth rate in the US follows the same pattern as the world outside of China.

Formatting is a bit messed up.

First column is “date”, second column is “cases confirmed outside China” third column is “date” (current or future) and fourth column is “cases confirmed acquired in US).

Cases Cases
Confirmed Confirmed
DATE Outside China DATE Acquired in US

1/25/20 40 3/1/2020 45
1/26/20 57 3/2/2020 ?
1/27/20 64 3/3/2020 ?
1/28/20 87 3/4/2020 ?
1/29/20 105 3/5/2020 ?
1/30/20 118 3/6/2020 etc
1/31/20 153 3/7/2020
2/1/20 173 3/8/2020
2/2/20 183 3/9/2020
2/3/20 188 3/10/2020
2/4/20 212 3/11/2020
2/5/20 227 3/12/2020
2/6/20 265 3/13/2020
2/7/20 317 3/14/2020
2/8/20 343 3/15/2020
2/9/20 361 3/16/2020
2/10/20 457 3/17/2020
2/11/20 476 3/18/2020
2/12/20 523 3/19/2020
2/13/20 538 3/20/2020
2/14/20 595 3/21/2020
2/15/20 685 3/22/2020
2/16/20 780 3/23/2020
2/17/20 896 3/24/2020
2/18/20 1000 3/25/2020
2/19/20 1100 3/26/2020
2/20/20 1200 3/27/2020
2/21/20 1400 3/28/2020
2/22/20 1700 3/29/2020
2/23/20 2000 3/30/2020
2/24/20 2400 3/31/2020
2/25/20 2800 4/1/2020
2/26/20 3300 4/2/2020
2/27/20 4300 4/3/2020
2/28/20 5300 4/4/2020
2/29/20 6800 4/5/2020
3/1/20 8500 4/6/2020

 

[Belle1962]

Stop panic buying. You are only contributing to the mass hysteria. Before stockpiling anything remember coronaVIRUS is a VIRUS and antiBACTERIAL wipes, hand sanitizers and masks are good for BACTERIA. Both Government and non-government medical personnel have said that the masks won’t help the majority of the healthy population. Medical personnel need PPE because they come in direct contact daily and several times a day with potentially infected people. Therefore their risk is much higher than the average person.
Fly by night companies and others are hawking “N95” respirators and masks. If you must buy a mask go to the CDC.gov website and look for the brands and models that have been approved by both NIOSH AND the FDA.

And I hate to say it since I’ve been on these boards since 1997 or so but I am very disappointed the DIS has advertising from companies hawking these masks. None of them are NIOSH and FDA approved. You have only their word they’re effective. I passed 3 added before I signed in to post here.

 

[gottaluvPluto]

Washington just announced the second US death. We live in WA. I’m still not panicking, but I have to be honest that I don’t feel great about this and less and less comfortable with traveling in the future.

I think we will have a lot of deaths from the senior home/rehabilitation. From my understanding the first person to die from COVID19 was living at the center as well as this person that died. I wonder if they are trying to figure out who brought the virus into the center.

 

[tnicks]

I’m getting kind of worried about going back to wdw on Thursday. We have a fp for MMRR but I’m not sure if it’s worth it to go and be around so many people again

I'm supposed to fly down Tuesday. Really wish I had a crystal ball or someone could just give me some odds.

 

[gwynne]

And I hate to say it since I’ve been on these boards since 1997 or so but I am very disappointed the DIS has advertising from companies hawking these masks. None of them are NIOSH and FDA approved. You have only their word they’re effective. I passed 3 added before I signed in to post here.

I highly recommend an ad blocker.
Many of us use one.

 

[Iowamomof4]

Stop panic buying. You are only contributing to the mass hysteria. Before stockpiling anything remember coronaVIRUS is a VIRUS and antiBACTERIAL wipes, hand sanitizers and masks are good for BACTERIA. Both Government and non-government medical personnel have said that the masks won’t help the majority of the healthy population. Medical personnel need PPE because they come in direct contact daily and several times a day with potentially infected people. Therefore their risk is much higher than the average person.
Fly by night companies and others are hawking “N95” respirators and masks. If you must buy a mask go to the CDC.gov website and look for the brands and models that have been approved by both NIOSH AND the FDA.

And I hate to say it since I’ve been on these boards since 1997 or so but I am very disappointed the DIS has advertising from companies hawking these masks. None of them are NIOSH and FDA approved. You have only their word they’re effective. I passed 3 added before I signed in to post here.

Even the CDC recommends using hand sanitizer if soap and water are not available: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention-treatment.html

Alcohol does kill viruses.

 

[wallawallakids]

I think we will have a lot of deaths from the senior home/rehabilitation. From my understanding the first person to die from COVID19 was living at the center as well as this person that died. I wonder if they are trying to figure out who brought the virus into the center.

I think you are correct. They are reporting that the second person is from the center, the first however, was not. I think it’s wide spread now honestly. Like someone above said, now that they are testing more we are going to see it show up everywhere.

 

[Haley R]

I'm supposed to fly down Tuesday. Really wish I had a crystal ball or someone could just give me some odds.

I’m not sure what we will decide. We won’t go until Thursday night so if it gets considerably worse in Florida by then we may stay home

 

[0FF TO NEVERLAND]

I’m getting kind of worried about going back to wdw on Thursday. We have a fp for MMRR but I’m not sure if it’s worth it to go and be around so many people again

Going to the grocery store can put you around many people. Odds are, you’ll be fine. Leaving the country is one thing cause of quarantines. Being in the country, I won’t let it affect me.

 

[TLSnell1981]

I'm supposed to fly down Tuesday. Really wish I had a crystal ball or someone could just give me some odds.
[/QUOTE.....

I think you are correct. They are reporting that the second person is from the center, the first however, was not. I think it’s wide spread now honestly. Like someone above said, now that they are testing more we are going to see it show up everywhere.

I read they were both in the same facility...EvergreenHealth Medical Center in Kirkland.

 

[Griz1]

I'm supposed to fly down Tuesday. Really wish I had a crystal ball or someone could just give me some odds.

Hi, I’m going down (maybe) on March 19th but wish I was going sooner.

I don’t know if this helps, but to put things in perspective there are 86 known cases in the US. But, you don’t need to worry about them because they are in quarantine.

The NYTs reports that some experts think the virus COULD have infected and be undetected in up to 1,500 people in a hot spot in WA. That’s their highest estimate.

Let’s imagine there were an additional 1,500 undetected cases around the country making for a total of 3,000 undetected cases in the US (I’m just trying to come up with a really worst case scenario )

There are 330,000,0000 people in the US which would mean 1 in 110,000 people (in my worst case scenario) are unknowingly carrying the virus.

Let’s assume 115,000 visitors per day with 35,000 cast members each day for a total of 150,000 people at WDW.

With this worst case scenario , you could estimate 1 or 2 infected people at WDW.

With it being such a huge place, if you practice good hand washing and use sanitizer, right now based on those estimates, it seems really unlikely you would get infected.

In a few weeks I don’t know, but right now it seems like there is a reasonable chance no one in WDW during your trip will have the virus.

 

[tnicks]

Hi, I’m going down (maybe) on March 19th but wish I was going sooner.

I don’t know if this helps, but to put things in perspective there are 86 known cases in the US. But, you don’t need to worry about them because they are in quarantine.

The NYTs reports that some experts think the virus COULD have infected and be undetected in up to 1,500 people in a hot spot in WA. That’s their highest estimate.

Let’s imagine there were an additional 1,500 undetected cases around the country making for a total of 3,000 undetected cases in the US (I’m just trying to come up with a really worst case scenario )

There are 330,000,0000 people in the US which would mean 1 in 110,000 people (in my worst case scenario) are unknowingly carrying the virus.

Let’s assume 115,000 visitors per day with 35,000 cast members each day for a total of 150,000 people at WDW.

With this worst case scenario , you could estimate 1 or 2 infected people at WDW.

With it being such a huge place, if you practice good hand washing and use sanitizer, right now based on those estimates, it seems really unlikely you would get infected.

In a few weeks I don’t know, but right now it seems like there is a reasonable chance no one in WDW during your trip will have the virus.

I think what has me shaken are 1 kid (3yo) still getting over a chest cold and has a nasty bark (no fever), another has
epilepsy (5yo), and I have Graves and a heart arrhythmia despite being otherwise mildly fit and healthy. These kids just can't keep theirs hands out of their mouths and hell half the time their mouth off the tables.

On top of that, it appears one of the cases in Tampa was community acquired, which typically means there is much more going on in that area.

I really appreciate the spit balled math, it does help. I just worry we're at high risk and under reported by a large margin.

It is somewhat of a now or not for a long time situation though.

 

[wallawallakids]

I read they were both in the same facility...EvergreenHealth Medical Center in Kirkland.

I knew they were both treated at that hospital but I thought the first person was not a resident at the Life Care Center where they fear the current outbreak is. I know the second patient was and was transferred to Evergreen Medical Center for care but you may be correct. Honestly, the news here has been so conflicting. I seem to get different stories from different stations. I’m feeling like it’s the tip of the iceberg and there will be many more in the coming days. At least here in WA. The news tonight said they were monitoring 50 people with symptoms at the Life Care Center. Not sure if that’s correct or not but I can’t think of a worse place for it to spread. So sad.

 

[JordanClark9]

In my opinion the media is blowing this all out of proportion.

Around 3,000 people have died worldwide. More than 90% of those were in China.
I wouldn't worry about your trip to WDW. As others have stated above, just take the same measures as you would to prevent against catching the cold while at WDW.

 

[wgeo]

The Florida Department of Health says that there are no confirmed cases, two presumptive positive cases, eight pending test results, 15 negative testing results, and 184 people under public health monitoring.

That's the current info they are releasing

The case in Tampa (which is approx an hour away from WDW) was a person that traveled to Italy.
The case south of Tampa has no known connections to anyone that traveled - that place is approx 1 hour 45 mins from WdW.

 

[Mrs. Ciz]

And a public health emergency declared in Florida by the governor: https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/p...e-test-presumptively-positive-for-coronavirus

My guess is this is going to start affecting travel plans. Now that they are finally testing people the number of cases are probably going to rise rapidly.

My DD’s college Spring Break starts in 5 days. She and 40 of her friends are going to Daytona Beach for the week. I am hoping that the spread is still in an early enough stage that they will be ok. They aren’t going to be around the general public exactly, but they will be around tons of other college students.

It’s only a matter of time until it hits the college campuses themselves, especially with students traveling far and wide for Spring Breaks. Some will invariably bring the virus back to their campuses if it is not already there.