April Incentives - What Are Your Predictions?

[BrianLo]

This all further affirms my theory that Poly isn't going on sale this quarter. They are juicing the sales with OKW instead.

OKW is also the product of likely original members starting to die out. I'm sure Disney has been building up their inventory at an increasing pace. As much as we'd love these deep discounts on other sold out resorts, may of them are too new! It also helps OKW is a '65 year' resort as it were. Very little of its original membership is making 2057.

 

[PCDisFan]

How many points do you need to buy to get it down to that level?

200

Edit to add math: $239 pp - $17 pp developer discount - $25 pp ($5000/200) welcome home discount - $20 pp magical beginnings = $177 (I got to ~$179 by including closing costs)

 

[AstroBlasters]

So… with MB you get VDH for $172 at 250 points…..

 

[NVDISFamily]

just to clarify your guide said they do have points for OKW with June use year and 2023 points?

That’s what I was told. I didn’t have OKW fire sale on my bingo card this morning.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Sorry to be so redundant, but just to clarify your guide said they do have points for OKW with June use year and 2023 points? I was playing phone tag with my guide today, so never got to talk with him, but I would be pretty interested in this!

I have to feel like at 7 months we could get some of the less in demand rooms at other resorts (1BR OV at Aulani and 1 BR preferred view at RIV are actually two of our favorites) so this has me really thinking it could be a good option for booking a variety of the less in demand rooms at that seven month mark…..

Yes. If you buy before end of May with a June UY you will get 2023 points.

They had June UY for OKW as of this afternoon.

 

[achinforsomebacon]

This would work at least as of today. Not sure anyone would want to risk the small margins quickly evaporating if the market moves:

1) Buy 1000 points split into 5 contracts at ~$98 pp after closing costs

2) Immediately resell 4 of them for $115 pp each, netting $104 after commission

You’d keep the last one and have paid about $74 pp on it.

The arbitrage is especially attractive for people who don’t already have a blue card…but I think it would work about as well with 600, keep one 150-200 point contract, and then sell off 4 smaller (higher price per point) resale contracts.

One small problem with this plan is that I think you can only split a purchase into 4 contracts. Still an opportunity but the math changes a bit.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

So… with MB you get VDH for $172 at 250 points…..

You are a terrible influence—but is a pretty compelling price point if I trust Disney to extend the parks Westward.

@PCDisFan thank you for sharing your math!

Either way it’s looking like $35k plus, at which point I think I’d rather have 100-150 VGC points.

 

[AstroBlasters]

You are a terrible influence—but is a pretty compelling price point if I trust Disney to extend the parks Westward.

@PCDisFan thank you for sharing your math!

Either way it’s looking like $35k plus, at which point I think I’d rather have 100-150 VGC points.

As someone who just purchased 97 direct VGC points…. I’ll roll with that…. but you could always tour the VDH GV…..

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

I don't know what to make of all these good deals! I think DisneyLand Forward is going to happen, so VDH will be in great positioning to be rental points and great SAP as direct points. But, we're on the East Coast, and how often would we need/want VDH points? But I look at VGC inflation, and while I don't think VDH has the same cache, it's still a great resort, from the looks of it anyway.

OKW, we did a resort-only stay there and LOVED it. I think it's only a matter of time before the Skyliner is extended SOMEWHERE, and why not to OKW/SS and Disney Springs line? They'd goose the profit margins on all the resorts over there that are car/bus dependent. Those grand villas are amazing. Heck, the one-bedroom was wonderful -- for cheap! There's the new drone show at Springs. Do they extend the Skyliner to help the evening crowds at MK, running through OKW/SS/Port Orleans/Riverside?

Riviera we already own enough of, but if we needed more points, I'd be game.

What does this mean for Poly and Poly resale? I was eyeing resale, but if they close the gap between the two, maybe wait for all direct points and instant gratification and two more blue cards to pass down to the kids so they'd each have an Epcot/MK direct card/points to inherit? There's a ton of rerouting on Floridian Way for traffic. How are they going to handle the monorail/Poly influx of people at the Poly tower and looky-loos? How popular is Poly going to be when on sale if we hit recession? I know the economy is supposedly booming right now, but I think we're overdue for a recession. Could there be deals if we wait?

Who's next for a fire sale? I'm thinking Animal Kingdom has a bazillion points, and if they're expanding/updating Animal Kingdom park with Joe Rhode supervising, is that the sleeper hit of the future? How many points did they buy back last year at CC? Enough to do a fire sale there? Animal Kingdom is one of my favorites, not my husband's, but it's due for a refurbishment in 2025. What if they nail it and it can be bought for cheap?

Still no desire for CFW, but for folks that are Cabin-curious, this is a nice way to buy in and possibly blend points with another resort to maximize the promotions.

I have analysis paralysis. Bingo card is blown!

 

[Brian Noble]

DVC continues to prove over and over again they do not care about selling out Aulani. When they price RIV lower than Aulani it really says a lot lol.

Another way of saying it is they are happy with the price they are getting and the pace at which they are getting it. They aren’t going to build another one next door when it sell out like they have been doing at WDW. So higher revenue might outweigh a shorter sales window.

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

I'm in trouble.....I guess OKW here I come? thoughts?

Everything you said makes sense, but this part stood out the most to me

Buy where you want to stay is the most important variable in all of this. OKWe are not particularly attractive SAPs with the higher comparative dues. Initial purchase price is a drop in the bucket compared the amount you’ll pay in dues over the life of the contract.

Also, the last few years of Disney has taught me to check my assumptions at the door. It sure wasn’t fun becoming a blue card member and then not having access to the sorcerer’s pass.

Bottom line, you loving your home resort is bedrock to any DVC purchase, IMO.

 

[CastAStone]

I don't know what to make of all these good deals! I think DisneyLand Forward is going to happen, so VDH will be in great positioning to be rental points and great SAP as direct points. But, we're on the East Coast, and how often would we need/want VDH points? But I look at VGC inflation, and while I don't think VDH has the same cache, it's still a great resort, from the looks of it anyway.

OKW, we did a resort-only stay there and LOVED it. I think it's only a matter of time before the Skyliner is extended SOMEWHERE, and why not to OKW/SS and Disney Springs line? They'd goose the profit margins on all the resorts over there that are car/bus dependent. Those grand villas are amazing. Heck, the one-bedroom was wonderful -- for cheap! There's the new drone show at Springs. Do they extend the Skyliner to help the evening crowds at MK, running through OKW/SS/Port Orleans/Riverside?

Riviera we already own enough of, but if we needed more points, I'd be game.

What does this mean for Poly and Poly resale? I was eyeing resale, but if they close the gap between the two, maybe wait for all direct points and instant gratification and two more blue cards to pass down to the kids so they'd each have an Epcot/MK direct card/points to inherit? There's a ton of rerouting on Floridian Way for traffic. How are they going to handle the monorail/Poly influx of people at the Poly tower and looky-loos? How popular is Poly going to be when on sale if we hit recession? I know the economy is supposedly booming right now, but I think we're overdue for a recession. Could there be deals if we wait?

Who's next for a fire sale? I'm thinking Animal Kingdom has a bazillion points, and if they're expanding/updating Animal Kingdom park with Joe Rhode supervising, is that the sleeper hit of the future? How many points did they buy back last year at CC? Enough to do a fire sale there? Animal Kingdom is one of my favorites, not my husband's, but it's due for a refurbishment in 2025. What if they nail it and it can be bought for cheap?

Still no desire for CFW, but for folks that are Cabin-curious, this is a nice way to buy in and possibly blend points with another resort to maximize the promotions.

I have analysis paralysis. Bingo card is blown!

I think most of the VGC inflation was due to the tiny number of points available at DL, and I don’t imagine VDH will do the same.

I think poly resale is unlikely to be impacted by these offers.

There’s already a DVC Resale recession. Prices are down like 30%. Sure, if the bottom absolutely falls out, we could see “deals”, but even a moderate recession I’m not sure would be super impactful to prices with where they’ve gone in the last 18 months.

AKV had a fire sale not terribly long ago. I’d guess SSR would be next if there’s another one. But that’s a big if. The only real refurbishment bounce I’ve noticed was SSR, but that was when they gave it a renovation everyone universally agreed was an improvement (because nearly everyone disliked the previous), added a sleeping surface, and gave it the Riviera bed treatment with the wall beds, and for a hot minute it looked like that might be exclusive to those two resorts.

Every other resort, after refurbishment, seems to just keep chugging along.

 

[chazas]

I am in ROFR for a 285 point SSR contract. I just had a 200 point CCV contract accepted. As I mentioned, that’s probably way more points than I really need.

I was also waiting for these incentives on the theory that maybe it could make more sense to not go forward with CCV and get a blue card with a direct purchase. But even with the good OKW price for me I don’t think it’s worth it. I already have SAP at SSR. Yes I could save some money on annual passes, but it’s just me and (some years) my partner and the higher OKW dues would offset the extra cost. And I don’t get an 11 month advantage anywhere that really matters, unless after this OKW suddenly becomes harder to book (which I kind of doubt).

Disney is very good at muddying up decisionmaking and extracting the maximum dollars out of people!

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

and not adding yet another resort image to my signature to spam this forum even more.

It's okay, there's a setting under preferences to turn off seeing people's signatures!
I did that long ago because for some users the signatures take way too much screen space, lol

 

[vdangelo239]

Everything you said makes sense, but this part stood out the most to me

Buy where you want to stay is the most important variable in all of this. OKWe are not particularly attractive SAPs with the higher comparative dues. Initial purchase price is a drop in the bucket compared the amount you’ll pay in dues over the life of the contract.

Also, the last few years of Disney has taught me to check my assumptions at the door. It sure wasn’t fun becoming a blue card member and then not having access to the sorcerer’s pass.

Bottom line, you loving your home resort is bedrock to any DVC purchase, IMO.

My wife and I had a lengthy talk about this today...and after she talked some sense into me - I agree with you.

We are going to make the leap to Direct, but we're going to do it with 150 points at the Riv. Gives us an Epcot resort to balance out our Poly points, the length of contract is such that we'll be able to let our kids enjoy it through adulthood, studios sleep 5 (which is critical for my crew), and the tower studios for my wife and I are very appealing (we are cruise people, we're used to small cabins).

location - location - location....so into the direct abyss we go...the Riv deal is not as "cheap" as OKW, but length of contract / dues / and LOCATION win out for us it appears.

Loved the comment- it was helpful - thank you @MarkNC2Disney

 

[intamin]

Another way of saying it is they are happy with the price they are getting and the pace at which they are getting it. They aren’t going to build another one next door when it sell out like they have been doing at WDW. So higher revenue might outweigh a shorter sales window.

Yeah I agree completely. Aulani is probably booking to capacity anyways so even if its not fully sold out, they probably feel confident booking the remaining 25% of the resort with cash otherwise they would do another flash sale.

 

[Jlo85]

Did anyone confirm if a Welcome Home offer (discount for a booked WDW trip) applies for OKW? I’m too lazy to call my guide.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

I think most of the VGC inflation was due to the tiny number of points available at DL, and I don’t imagine VDH will do the same.

Did the price of VGC ever come back down after it shot up when VDH pricing was announced? Was just looking at it but don't remember what pre-VDH pricing was like

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

My wife and I had a lengthy talk about this today...and after she talked some sense into me - I agree with you.

We are going to make the leap to Direct, but we're going to do it with 150 points at the Riv. Gives us an Epcot resort to balance out our Poly points, the length of contract is such that we'll be able to let our kids enjoy it through adulthood, studios sleep 5 (which is critical for my crew), and the tower studios for my wife and I are very appealing (we are cruise people, we're used to small cabins).

location - location - location....so into the direct abyss we go...the Riv deal is not as "cheap" as OKW, but length of contract / dues / and LOCATION win out for us it appears.

Loved the comment- it was helpful - thank you @MarkNC2Disney

I’m so glad! I think that’s a very wise decision!!

FWIW, we’re (family of 5) Poly resale and Riviera direct and we absolutely love it for all the reasons you already listed. Also, we bought in a couple years ago and the net PP was in the 190’s, which I think you can beat with MB if you choose.

 

[CastAStone]

Did the price of VGC ever come back down after it shot up when VDH pricing was announced? Was just looking at it but don't remember what pre-VDH pricing was like

Yes. It shot into the low $300s as a floor price and is back to mid-$200 and contracts are just sitting at that price. I think it wants to be around $225 right now and the sellers need to catch up.

So that’s a fall of like $100 from its peak.