I think people are being more strategic about shopping...
I mean, I used to load up a cart at Safeway - now, I never have a full cart b/c there are only 3-4 items I'm willing to pay full price for at that store - everything else, I go in for loss leaders and on shelf discounts (and my allergy items when they are on a sale), so my spend there is reduced.
Like yesterday, I spent $135 to get to my $300 level for my free turkey. I did that by buying almost all the loss leaders the last 2-3 weeks and not much more...well, okay, I got my kids cheap chicken Monday b/c after raising the price to $7.99 for cheap chicken Monday, in Sept/Oct, no one bought it, so they dropped it to $6.99 for an 8 piece for November and included the non-dark option (which was never included). So, I bought 16 pieces.
Best unadvertised loss leader yesterday was 49 cents/lb clementines they had leftover from the week before when they were $2/1lb in the "ad" sale. I bought 2 bags and ate one yesterday (and they were still good). The other is for tonight's dinner b/c while they were good, I don't expect them to be much longer b/c they are peak ripeness right now.
Edit to Add: And even getting the clementines, I still got the 8lb loss leader navel oranges for $5. I just skipped buying apples b/c they weren't on sale, so my kids can live on citrus and bananas (one of the things I buy even not on sale) this week.