So is it a bubble

[Katie L]

we are considering buying in via re-sale- I’m looking at the price increase YoY of like 25% on older resorts and I’m just wondering opinions from you long-timers. Do you think we are in a bubble? A recession would bring the prices back down - anything else that you think would?

What I see on the horizon are just more reasons for value to increase - but sustained 25% yoy seems impossible.

Thoughts?

 

[rg35]

I don't think there's anything other than a major economic collapse that would hurt resale prices.

Over the longer term, perhaps significant negative impacts due to climate change that would make visiting Florida unpalatable.

 

[Deb & Bill]

Disney sets the price that they think people will still pay. They want to make as much money on selling contracts that they can. If they couldn't sell the older resorts, the price would go down.

Since they raised the lower limit to get the direct perks from 25 to 75 points, they will set the price and see if it flies.

 

[Ben E N]

I think a lot of the price increases have happened since the 2021 expansions to Disney were announced this past summer. Interest in Disney World is high right now with those moves and Star Wars land. This drives up hotel prices, which makes DVC look better in comparison, and resale look even better compared to buying direct.
Like what was stated above, a drop in the economy is sure to affect things, but I don't see prices dipping in the next few years for any other reason.

 

[storey13]

I don't think there's anything other than a major economic collapse that would hurt resale prices.

Over the longer term, perhaps significant negative impacts due to climate change that would make visiting Florida unpalatable.

I am glad to see I'm not the only one thinking about climate change in relation to making a DVC purchase. I can't imagine in 30 to 40 years Orlando will be the place you'd want to vacation from March to October due to increasing tempatures.

 

[Jerry5788]

I am glad to see I'm not the only one thinking about climate change in relation to making a DVC purchase. I can't imagine in 30 to 40 years Orlando will be the place you'd want to vacation from March to October due to increasing tempatures.

Climate change does not mean increasing temperatures

 

[storey13]

Climate change does not mean increasing temperatures

It means much more than that, and Florida should expect higher than average temperature increases over the next few decades.

 

[Sleepy Sheep]

Call me crazy , but I would think the threat of global nuclear war or increasing concerns of terrorism in densely populated areas to have a greater affect on DVC purchase prices than climate change.

(Unless, of course, hurricane season gets really, really bad)

 

[Cyberc1978]

When economy tanks so will the resale prices unfortunately it’s only a matter of time. I’m not saying it will happen within the next 12 months but at some point it will.

The economy goes up and unfortunately it also goes down just look back in history. Questions are WHEN will it happen and HOW big of a hit will the economy take.

My personal opinion is that the more the economy goes up prior to going down the more it will go down when it falls.

 

[Ben E N]

Climate change does not mean increasing temperatures

A minimum of 2 degree Celsius, so 5 degree F, warming is expected over the next 80 years. While this is obviously a very serious issue, I don't think it will make Orlando instantly unlivable within 20 years. Hurricanes are expected to increase and intensify, and coastal areas should flood more, but mid-state is probably ok for the length of your DVC contract.

 

[chicagodisneyguy]

I think even if we have a downturn in the economy/recession WDW will weather it much better in the next few years than most vacation spots. 2018 to 2021 has Toy Story Land, StarWars Land, and WDW's 50th Anniversary. I think SW land alone is going to bump crowds more than we've seen in a long time....and it's busy now! I think WDW resort rates will stay steady at best case scenario (for the consumer that is). I think this should in turn keep DVC prices steady. I think the only thing that will cause a decline in prices at the older resorts is time decay. At some point sub-20 years left on a contract is going to be a negative to more and more buyers. But even then, assuming the rental market dynamics haven't changed, it's probably still more cost effective to own BCV with 15 years left @ $140/pt than renting BCV points for those same 15 years.

I think direct prices are near the ceiling that Disney will be able to get. That in theory should mean that resales are also close to their top. If I had to bet, I would say that resales prices will stay pretty constant in the next 3 years and trade within the range we've seen recently. But my personal take is we are NOT going to see a major recession in the next few years. The stock market could have a correction, especially if rates continue to rise as the Fed has signaled. But I think the fundamentals of the overall economy are stronger than the previous two recessions.

 

[Spork24]

I guess one question will be what does Disney do with new resorts? Do they ever build more dvc units in Orlando than there are buyers? They haven’t reached the tipping point yet.

It is interesting that they are still trying to sell aulani all these years later. I know there are lots of reasons for that.

I don’t think Riviera is going to be all that big and thus should still sell pretty well, but if you ever have another really large Orlando dvc (like ssr) go on sale it could drive prices down a bit.

It will also be interesting to see how Disney handles the expiration of contracts. I think a bunch of them expire the same year. You would expect at least some of those properties to be “reimagineered” and resold.

All that to say DVC market is very fluid and based on many factors which is why it’s never good to buy unless you plan to hold for some time to get vacation “value” from it

 

[a742246]

we are considering buying in via re-sale- I’m looking at the price increase YoY of like 25% on older resorts and I’m just wondering opinions from you long-timers. Do you think we are in a bubble? A recession would bring the prices back down - anything else that you think would?

What I see on the horizon are just more reasons for value to increase - but sustained 25% yoy seems impossible.

Thoughts?

Another thing that will lower resale prices at least on the older resorts will be the 2042 expiration dates.

 

[crisi]

A minimum of 2 degree Celsius, so 5 degree F, warming is expected over the next 80 years. While this is obviously a very serious issue, I don't think it will make Orlando instantly unlivable within 20 years. Hurricanes are expected to increase and intensify, and coastal areas should flood more, but mid-state is probably ok for the length of your DVC contract.

The problem with central Florida will be the high water table. And as the coastal areas move inland, the force of hurricane winds reaching central Florida will be a lot more dramatic. Other concerns will be the social and economic impact climate change has. I'm rather happy my contract is an original expiration contract and I'll be dead, because I think it will be bad.

 

[Ben E N]

The problem with central Florida will be the high water table. And as the coastal areas move inland, the force of hurricane winds reaching central Florida will be a lot more dramatic. Other will be the social and economic impact climate change has. I'm rather happy my contract is an original expiration contract and I'll be dead, because I think it will be bad.

I can only hope that we curb climate change through behavior changes, such as replacing hummer H2's with smartcars, etc. With that said, even worst case scenarios only have Miami and New Orleanes going completely under. The rest of the gulf cost is high enough above sea level that the ocean only moves in like 5% of the state of Florida. Really, if Miami literally disapears, trips to Disney will be the least of my concern, but will still technically be possible.

 

[chalee94]

I can only hope that we curb climate change through behavior changes, such as replacing hummer H2's with smartcars, etc.

Umm, I believe Ford basically stopped building cars because SUV and truck demand is so strong now that $4-5 gas is a memory. And no matter what we do, China and India will have a big say in pollution levels over the next decade or two...

 

[Ben E N]

Umm, I believe Ford basically stopped building cars because SUV and truck demand is so strong now that $4-5 gas is a memory. And no matter what we do, China and India will have a big say in pollution levels over the next decade or two...

Yes, I listed that one as an example of what has been done so far. While the US is the highest emitter of co2 per capita, not to mention all the methane we are responsible due to raising cattle, the whole world plays a role in fixing this. That is why the Paris Agreement was signed by literally the whole world, and everyone but the US plans on following through with their end of it.

 

[CaliAdventurer]

With all the expansion going on at the parks, I believe demand will increase on both rentals and purchases for the next 3-5 years either way. You wouldn’t have believed how many post last year told people to WAIT until the end of the year because prices would come down. This time exactly last year, I passed on a 320 pt contract at BC for $101. OOPS. If you want it, get it now.

 

[Katie L]

With all the expansion going on at the parks, I believe demand will increase on both rentals and purchases for the next 3-5 years either way. You wouldn’t have believed how many post last year told people to WAIT until the end of the year because prices would come down. This time exactly last year, I passed on a 320 pt contract at BC for $101. OOPS. If you want it, get it now.

I'm trying to figure out if we should pay off the car (Dave Ramsey plan) or ignore Dave Ramsey for the mickey mouse plan. lol

I will get pretty mad if these $100 SSRs are $145 next year.

 

[chicagodisneyguy]

I'm trying to figure out if we should pay off the car (Dave Ramsey plan) or ignore Dave Ramsey for the mickey mouse plan. lol

I will get pretty mad if these $100 SSRs are $145 next year.

I think if SSR is your preferred resort I wouldn't worry about prices spiking. The average sales prices for SSR (according to one resale broker) for Jan, Feb, & Mar were $91, $95, $92 respectively. I'd personally be surprised if avg sales price for balance of the year varied more than $5 from that range.

I'd look at how many times you plan to vacation at WDW in the next few years and what you'd spend on accommodations. Compare that to if DVC will save you money (or at least allow you to upgrade your accommodations) and compare that to the financial freedom of no car payment. But in your case, i don't think I'd base the decision on the fear that SSR trades north of $120/pt in the next year.

Which every way you go good luck!