Predictions - Copper Creek Villas 1st Resale Contract - Date/Price

BK2014

DIS Veteran
Joined
Feb 24, 2013
With the announcement that Copper Creek is officially opening, I thought it would be interesting to see when people think the first resale contracts will be available, and at what price per point? I do not have an intelligent guess, as I am new to DVC and have not followed these things before. But just for fun, I'll say in 2 years and $155/per point.
 
Life happens and priorities change. I think other resorts usually have resales within a year.
I'd guess prices of $165, at least if it is smaller contracts that you cannot get direct.
 
All the resorts have had resales pop up much more quickly than 2 years. As hakepb mentioned, life happens. I'm always a little sad when it starts showing up and the owners haven't even gotten to enjoy a single trip.

The first PVB was somewhere around 4 1/2 months from sales starting. VGF was closer to 3 months. BLT was around the 4 1/2 to 5 month mark.
 
Maintenance fees seem high to me for a new resort. Wonder if that will drive resale price down at the outset.
 


With general public sale set to begin in April and annual dues notices likely to be sent out around November, my guess is about 7 months at a price of about $150 as owners try to dump their contracts in droves before they have to pony up their dues.

LAX
 
Someone will find out they overbought when the dues statements come out, so January. They will also have financed the purchase, so the price will be what they bought it at or just under the price of points in January.
 
All the resorts have had resales pop up much more quickly than 2 years. As hakepb mentioned, life happens. I'm always a little sad when it starts showing up and the owners haven't even gotten to enjoy a single trip.

The first PVB was somewhere around 4 1/2 months from sales starting. VGF was closer to 3 months. BLT was around the 4 1/2 to 5 month mark.

Yes, Kathy is right with VGF. Within just a few months of the sales launch, VGF had its first resale contract. I remember that it was discussed, with much surprise, on the boards when it had happened.
 


With general public sale set to begin in April and annual dues notices likely to be sent out around November, my guess is about 7 months at a price of about $150 as owners try to dump their contracts in droves before they have to pony up their dues.

LAX
Dues are high, but people most sensitive to high dues will most likely be on a monthly payment plan for "mortgage" and dues
 
I suspect it will be due to a family situation, not dues shock. Death or divorce will likely drive the first resale.
 
I think some will trickle out toward late fall. I suspect a larger number will hit the market when the bills for dues come out. A 150 point contract, which is not that big really, is going to be a bill of about 1100$ in January.

I think more in the 150$ per point range. I think the AP Discounts that are lost with resale purchase contracts hurt the prices of the newer resorts on the resale market.
 
I think some will trickle out toward late fall. I suspect a larger number will hit the market when the bills for dues come out. A 150 point contract, which is not that big really, is going to be a bill of about 1100$ in January.

I think more in the 150$ per point range. I think the AP Discounts that are lost with resale purchase contracts hurt the prices of the newer resorts on the resale market.

Not sure if I am misunderstanding you, but why would it hurt the newer resorts, but not the older ones?

LAX
 
The first resale contracts will be stripped, and very close to the direct price---just enough under to entice someone with no patience.
 
Never mind about the first resale are people seriously going to pay $176 for Wilderness lodge

poly sees to be struggling to sell surely this will be worse
 
Never mind about the first resale are people seriously going to pay $176 for Wilderness lodge

poly sees to be struggling to sell surely this will be worse

I am no expert, but PVB sales suffers partly because of the lack of different types of accommodation. It's pretty much just connecting studios (most people don't stay in the bungalows). That's not to say CCV will sell like hot cakes at $176. If there were buyers willing to pay ~$160 for PVB, there should be more interests in CCV despite its initial price tag except that the MF may scare off some potential buyers.

LAX
 
Not sure if I am misunderstanding you, but why would it hurt the newer resorts, but not the older ones?
LAX

Because, for example, Beach Club Villas seems to be in the neighborhood of about 100$ per point on the resale market, a difference of 60$ from the direct price. If you do 150 points, that is a difference of 9000$...it takes a lot of Annual Pass discounts to make that up!.

With a resort being actively sold, people try to get close to the purchase price back since it is still almost brand new. But, at 165 per point, and direct being 176, now the savings is 1650. But, I lose Discounted APs, Use of the points for cruises(not that that is a good way to use points, but people still do it), have to go through ROFR, can not break up 150 points into 3 50 pointers, might not be able to get the exact contract I want, and I believe resale has higher closing costs.

That makes resale a lot less attractive to me, unless they lower the price more. Kind of like the new car depreciation idea. To me, the discounted APs is worth an extra 1600 alone. I think the perk restriction affects both new properties and older ones, just new ones more.

Since about this time last year, BCV and BWV asking prices seem to be down about 5-10$ a point, VWL down a few bucks, and poly down about 10-15 (and that had a price increase)
 
Never mind about the first resale are people seriously going to pay $176 for Wilderness lodge

poly sees to be struggling to sell surely this will be worse
With lower points per night, VWL is nearly 30% cheaper per week than Poly
In Dream Season, VWL studio is 120 points vs 153 for a standard view Poly studio...27.5% more to stay in Poly.
And a VWL 2BR is only 4% more points than (2) non-guaranteed connecting studios at the Poly.
 
With lower points per night, VWL is nearly 30% cheaper per week than Poly
In Dream Season, VWL studio is 120 points vs 153 for a standard view Poly studio...27.5% more to stay in Poly.
And a VWL 2BR is only 4% more points than (2) non-guaranteed connecting studios at the Poly.

I agree - I think the lower points/night for CCV compared to Poly as well as the availability of various size units (allowing more flexibility in number of guests and size of unit for different stays over the years) will make CCV more attractive to buyers for whom Poly is not desirable. And if they're not aware of the resale market for BRV (and other DVC resorts) and the high annual dues, they'll buy.
 
I know this thread is old now, but 2 CCV sale listings just recently appeared on one of the broker sites.
150 points for $159/point and 185 points for $148/point. So which one of you wins the prediction? :)
 
Well, I probably lose. I don’t think the first one was caused by death or divorce since they’re still taking a trip next year. The second one looks like divorce or job loss to me since it includes holding points. Someone decided it was a good idea to cancel that trip and sell.
 

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