Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios/ some 1-bedrooms (Prepared 2015)

[Pluto777]

Hardest to book on property IMO (in general - understand that certain categories are harder to book than others - so this is just difficulty to book period.

Hardest to Easiest @ 7 months:
1) VGF
2) BCV
3) BWV
4) WLV
5) Poly
6) BLT
7) AKV
8) OKW
9) SSR

Copper Creek is hard to predict until it is sold out. I think Studios at CCV will be very difficult because they aren't enough studios for the number of points there - probably will land at #3 on the list.

By the way, does that availability correspond with the units available at those resorts? (i/e are VGF, BCV, BWV etc very small resorts and PVB and BLT very big ones)?

 

[Roxyfire]

Thanks. Are you sure it is 7 AM and not 8 AM EST?

You're right, I'm thinking Central time!

 

[Wakey]

This is still pretty accurate I find.

 

[Supplanter]

Thanks! What about BLT, AKL & PVB? Think they will be tough at 7 months?

We have never had a problem getting bay lake (thats our favorite disneyworld resort). Weve stayed there in march, september and just last month and booked all at 7 months for 6+ nights without an issue. Poly is generally available and so is animal kingdom (except the value rooms which are virtually always gone before 7 months).
I disagree with the person who ranked grand floridian the hardest to book. I regularly see rooms available there at 7 months. Grand californian (disneyland) is by far the hardest to book. They only have 45 or so dvc rooms and it can be difficult to find even one day in any size room available at 7 months.

 

[skier_pete]

By the way, does that availability correspond with the units available at those resorts? (i/e are VGF, BCV, BWV etc very small resorts and PVB and BLT very big ones)?

BWV is not small, but BCV and VGF are, so yes generally there is a coordination between size and availability, but it's also location.

 

[Pluto777]

BWV is not small, but BCV and VGF are, so yes generally there is a coordination between size and availability, but it's also location.

Thx Pete. Anyone know where there is a list of the WDW DVC resort sizes from smallest to biggest?

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Thx Pete. Anyone know where there is a list of the WDW DVC resort sizes from smallest to biggest?

All of the DVC boards have a sticky at the top - Resource Center.

Post #6 has resort size information: https://www.disboards.com/threads/the-dvc-resource-center-updated-january-2018.3655476/

 

[Pluto777]

All of the DVC boards have a sticky at the top - Resource Center.

Post #6 has resort size information: https://www.disboards.com/threads/the-dvc-resource-center-updated-january-2018.3655476/

Thanks, I've seen it, but am unsure if I read it correctly; is " Max. Available" the bottomline on size for each? I was hoping for some clarity. Thanks!

 

[Pluto777]

Thanks, I've seen it, but am unsure if I read it correctly; is " Max. Available" the bottomline on size for each? I was hoping for some clarity. Thanks!

BTW, based on these charts (IF I am reading them correctly) I see AKV with the 3rd largest number of units (708, just a bit less than OKW and massive SSR) but the units at AKV (again if I am understanding this correctly) have a relatively tiny amount of GV's (22), and not even ONE dedicated 1 BR in the entire place. Am I reading this correctly? If so, I see now why there is usually more availability at AKV for those seeking the studios or 2 Bedroom units than most other DVC's at WDW... - it also appears if I read this right that VGF has only 94 studios?? If so that explains Pete's assertion on difficulty booking VGF

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

VGF has 6 Grand Villas. There are up to 47 studios, up to 47 1BRs, and up to 94 2BRs. But the total number of possible units is 147.
There are 47 dedicated 2BRs.
There are 47 studios, which can either be used as a studio, or can be paired with a 1BR to create a 2BR lock off. Every time someone books a 2BR lock off, a 1BR and a Studio is removed from available inventory.
Similarly, there are 47 1BRs, which can either be used as a 1BR, or as part of a 2BR lock off.
This means that studios can be difficult to book at busy times. You have both people who need stidios and people who want a lock off competing for the same 47 units. In addition, some studios were sold as Fixed Weeks, so the inventory may be even smaller.

 

[supersnoop]

BTW, based on these charts (IF I am reading them correctly) I see AKV with the 3rd largest number of units (708, just a bit less than OKW and massive SSR) but the units at AKV (again if I am understanding this correctly) have a relatively tiny amount of GV's (22), and not even ONE dedicated 1 BR in the entire place. Am I reading this correctly? If so, I see now why there is usually more availability at AKV for those seeking the studios or 2 Bedroom units than most other DVC's at WDW... - it also appears if I read this right that VGF has only 94 studios?? If so that explains Pete's assertion on difficulty booking VGF

There are very few, if any, dedicated one bedrooms. They’re kind of pointless.

Max available refers to the total number of rooms available if all lockoffs are booked separately.

 

[skier_pete]

There are very few, if any, dedicated one bedrooms. They’re kind of pointless.

Max available refers to the total number of rooms available if all lockoffs are booked separately.

A few resorts have dedicated 1-bedrooms. BWV have quite a few, but yes I think in the later years they realized that they are the least popular booking category, so they don't really have any in more resorts (CCV has a few I think though.)

The more interesting is a few resorts have no dedicated 2-bedrooms. (BWV and also AKV Jambo) so when the studios are filled, the 2-beds are filled.

 

[Jerry5788]

Has anyone seen anything similar to this for HHI? Debating a small contract purchase there but wondering if it necessary with the higher maintenance if home resort is important.

Currently looking at studios but years down the line might have to start doing 2 bedrooms as the family grows!

Thanks!

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Has anyone seen anything similar to this for HHI? Debating a small contract purchase there but wondering if it necessary with the higher maintenance if home resort is important.

Currently looking at studios but years down the line might have to start doing 2 bedrooms as the family grows!

Thanks!

Depends on time of travel. I suspect @drusba can address more fully, but at HHI studios are a challenge in high season as I understand it.

 

[jmmess]

Has anyone seen anything similar to this for HHI? Debating a small contract purchase there but wondering if it necessary with the higher maintenance if home resort is important.

Currently looking at studios but years down the line might have to start doing 2 bedrooms as the family grows!

Thanks!

It is definitely important to have the 11 month advantage for the summer months. Off season (cooler temps), you can usually get at 7 months.

 

[Pluto777]

Thanks everyone for all the positive feedback! I'm glad to have other folks using this!



Too much time on my hands? No way. I did it in bits and pieces when I found the time. I wish I had more time and could do the whole gamut of room styles, but towards the end it just got tedious.

I hardly remember now why I started working on it, but I think it really was to understand how difficult each resort was to get into at the 7-month mark. I started out doing just the 7-month table, but then the new resort availability tool came out, and I decided to go back to the 11-month point for each resort, which made it take longer than a year. The information that really surprised me is how easy it is to get into most of the resorts at 7-months from January - September. Even relatively new resorts like BLT.

I just had a thought (now THERES news ; ) MAYBE the reason why the summer is easier than you expected is the 'free' dining? In other words, because people are scrambling in for the dining, and since they are unable to do this from DVC rooms, there is more availability as the book rack rate on regular? Also, as others have noted DVCers are smart consumers, and prefer booking in cooler, less crowded and less POINT COSTLY time periods. We'll have to see what effect the opening of new Riveira near CBR has on the 7 month booking patterns - but I think I speak for 99% of the folks on this board when I say we all can't WAIT for your updated 2018 chart (that we all hope is coming soon!!)

 

[skier_pete]

I just had a thought (now THERES news ; ) MAYBE the reason why the summer is easier than you expected is the 'free' dining? In other words, because people are scrambling in for the dining, and since they are unable to do this from DVC rooms, there is more availability as the book rack rate on regular? Also, as others have noted DVCers are smart consumers, and prefer booking in cooler, less crowded and less POINT COSTLY time periods. We'll have to see what effect the opening of new Riveira near CBR has on the 7 month booking patterns - but I think I speak for 99% of the folks on this board when I say we all can't WAIT for your updated 2018 chart (that we all hope is coming soon!!)

I think that's the MAIN pattern you see. Higher point cost times are less popular. The fall is extremely popular not JUST because of F&W and Halloween, but because it's relatively inexpensive. Another example of this is the first two weeks of December are immensely popular, but the THIRD week of December is often quite available at 7 months. Why is that when all three weeks are while kids have school? Higher point costs.

Updated charts have about 2 months to go. It takes a year.

 

[Pluto777]

By the way, the work your doing on this Pete is ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL to anyone who is considering buying DVC. Why? Because if I know what the pattern will be for booking, why would I waste more 'expensive' DVC home resort points vs 7 month generic ones? Also vice versa, the true value of any home resort can only be known when you know just HOW IN DEMAND it will be, otherwise, why buy in there?

 

[skier_pete]

By the way, the work your doing on this Pete is ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL to anyone who is considering buying DVC. Why? Because if I know what the pattern will be for booking, why would I waste more 'expensive' DVC home resort points vs 7 month generic ones? Also vice versa, the true value of any home resort can only be known when you know just HOW IN DEMAND it will be, otherwise, why buy in there?

Can't disagree this is information I would want to know before buying, but most likely it would be a case of "I don't know what I don't know", meaning I think most buyers wouldn't even know that this is something they should be looking at. In fact, I would say that part of the reason I did this was to give MYSELF a better knowledge base for adding points - do I REALLY want to consider buying into SSR to save some money?

And I also said this in my original post - I did these tables for myself. My only "nice" act really is sharing it with everyone.

 

[Bing Showei]

By the way, the work your doing on this Pete is ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL to anyone who is considering buying DVC. Why? Because if I know what the pattern will be for booking, why would I waste more 'expensive' DVC home resort points vs 7 month generic ones? Also vice versa, the true value of any home resort can only be known when you know just HOW IN DEMAND it will be, otherwise, why buy in there?

They system @skier_pete developed is best looked at by the well devised color coding patterns. The terms "mostly" and "spotty" should really be a secondary measure of availability. If you look at the calendar and see that at 7-months, when you travel, that it's green/"open", great! Buy SSR cheap. Barring a fundamental shift in how DVC booking patterns work (e.g., reallocation of points between studios and 1BRs, rebalancing of points throughout the year), you should be good, for now. That's the big caveat. In the two years since these charts were made, Pete has noted that studios are getting increasingly difficult to book overall. There is no certainty in how that pattern will look in 5 years, 10 years.

Looking at the chart today, even with rooms "mostly" available at 7 months, it could still mean that the first day is unavailable right at 7 months - or becomes unavailable immediately at the 8am mark, making it a challenge for a non-home-resort owner to book any stretch of stay during that period despite it being mostly available.

Suppose for example, you are looking to travel October 15th-22nd at AKV. AKV may be "mostly" available in a given two-week period (at least 8 out of 15 days open), but if the first few days of when you're looking to book are not open when you want them, you can't book the other days, despite there being 12 other days scattered throughout that period. Looking back at the chart colors, yellow should be a warning that you may need to be flexible.

Others have had great success with going the 1BR route with SSR points. But a big component of that working is a degree of flexibility around travel dates, contentment with staying at SSR, and little expectation being able to travel during the the September-mid-January period. @Wakey comes to mind as someone who has done this with great success.

SSR happens to be the most cost effective option for now, but I would posit that even the most skeptical of the "buy where you'd be happy staying" are in fact buying where they are happy staying when they buy SSR. I wonder how many people, if all things were equal in terms of the economics ($/point/years), would be comfortable buying VB and rolling the dice on being able to swap out at a WDW resort at 7 months.

All this is to suggest that the charts are a tremendous guide, but the idea of buying where you are happy staying is still sound advice. Even if the "where" is as broad as WDW.

And I also said this in my original post - I did these tables for myself. My only "nice" act really is sharing it with everyone.

Not buying it. That's like saying, I go to Disney because I love to. I just bring the family along because it's nice. As a beneficiary of these charts when I bought in, it's pretty friggin' nice you did this.