Have dvc prices risen or dropped since new restrictions?

leslie piccirillo · Mar 19, 2019

Has anyone noticed ? Imy first contract got in right under the wire but didnt pass . I want to try another contract but feel like OKW and SSR in particular have gotten a little higher. Im having a hard time pulling the trigger again!

Katie L · Mar 19, 2019

I'm not sure there's enough data about what's actually passing yet. Anecdotally, contracts being submitted seem to be a bit lower than that swell right up to 1/19.

crvetter · Mar 19, 2019

There doesn't appear to be much movement pre to post restrictions in terms of prices (but this is from one broker but one of the largest). IMO it doesn't appear to have messed with the sales too much. Most resorts in February were aligned with what they sold for in November and December. I'm dropping January from my comparison because the resale restrictions being announced as grandfathered in likely artificially inflated prices for that 2 week period.
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-february-2019/

leslie piccirillo · Mar 19, 2019

Great article ! Thanks for the info.

Lumpy1106 · Mar 19, 2019

crvetter said:
There doesn't appear to be much movement pre to post restrictions in terms of prices (but this is from one broker but one of the largest). IMO it doesn't appear to have messed with the sales too much. Most resorts in February were aligned with what they sold for in November and December. I'm dropping January from my comparison because the resale restrictions being announced as grandfathered in likely artificially inflated prices for that 2 week period.
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-february-2019/

Would you happen to know if that's the average price of contracts that passed ROFR or the average price of ALL contracts? With BLT @ 145 it makes me think it's just contracts that passed ROFR but it doesn't say so.

crvetter · Mar 19, 2019

Lumpy1106 said:
Would you happen to know if that's the average price of contracts that passed ROFR or the average price of ALL contracts? With BLT @ 145 it makes me think it's just contracts that passed ROFR but it doesn't say so.

My understanding from talking to them this is everything since failing to pass ROFR is still a sale. My understanding they have a ROFR report that would offer better information.

Noodlez · Mar 20, 2019

I looked at these reports when I was researching BCV last year and their figures are always so much higher than anything on here. They have an average of $147 in October and $152 in October! I went through years' worth of ROFR threads on here and only ever found 2 sales above $140, and the average around then was a lot closer to $130 (not enough data for a monthly average really but $133 for previous 6 months, $131 over a year).
I did wonder if they were giving listing prices, but as it states sales prices I assume that a lot of the buyers just aren't as knowledgeable as people on here!

CraigInPA · Mar 20, 2019

Noodlez said:
I looked at these reports when I was researching BCV last year and their figures are always so much higher than anything on here. They have an average of $147 in October and $152 in October! I went through years' worth of ROFR threads on here and only ever found 2 sales above $140, and the average around then was a lot closer to $130 (not enough data for a monthly average really but $133 for previous 6 months, $131 over a year).
I did wonder if they were giving listing prices, but as it states sales prices I assume that a lot of the buyers just aren't as knowledgeable as people on here!

DVC Resale Market has traditionally had higher asking and selling prices than other venues (Fidelity, etc...)

ScubaCat · Mar 20, 2019

They're all pretty comparable, IMHO. Just because they're listed higher doesn't mean that's what they sell for.

I haven't ever noticed any price difference based on new restrictions, starting with the original ones in 3/2011. The price fluxuation is only based on economic factors, mainly the overall economic health and the always relevant supply and demand, which has a seasonal pattern to it.

skippytx · Mar 20, 2019

I only really pay attention to Bay Lake Tower listings, and I haven't seen much of a move in list pricing in the last few months. The price at which they are selling? Not sure, but list price seems to be holding steady between 135 and 145 depending on contract specifics like size, available points, etc.

texanlawyer · Mar 20, 2019

I'm also paying attention to BLT and seems like prices are a bit steady. I think the really interesting thing is that there don't appear to be that many new listings. It seems like there was a rush with the 1/19 deadline but it's been a bit quieter since then.

ljmiii · Mar 20, 2019

Noodlez said:
I looked at these reports when I was researching BCV last year and their figures are always so much higher than anything on here. They have an average of $147 in October and $152 in October! I went through years' worth of ROFR threads on here and only ever found 2 sales above $140, and the average around then was a lot closer to $130 (not enough data for a monthly average really but $133 for previous 6 months, $131 over a year).
I did wonder if they were giving listing prices, but as it states sales prices I assume that a lot of the buyers just aren't as knowledgeable as people on here!

Self reported sales data often skews low compared to actual sales data - no one wants to say they overpaid. I assume this applies to DVC sales and ROFR data as well.

Cyberc1978 · Mar 21, 2019

ljmiii said:
Self reported sales data often skews low compared to actual sales data - no one wants to say they overpaid. I assume this applies to DVC sales and ROFR data as well.

People have nothing to gain or lose for that matter by claiming they paid lower than they did. When I bought my AKV contract I know I paid slightly more than some but it was the size and UY I wanted and paying approx $500 more does not bother me.

Other might see it differently.

DougEMG · Mar 21, 2019

Most resale buyers here are bargain hunters, so I would expect the prices reported here to be lower than the average resale price.

ljmiii · Mar 21, 2019

Cyberc1978 said:
People have nothing to gain or lose for that matter by claiming they paid lower than they did.

I'm not saying that people lie about the price they paid for their car or device or DVC contract or whatever. Instead, people simply don't leave a record with their (user)name and price when they find out they've paid more than most respondents. Or to put it another way, "Disboards...where everyone paid less than average!"

Katie L · Mar 21, 2019

ljmiii said:
Or to put it another way, "Disboards...where everyone paid less than average!"

But I think it's fairly legitimate to believe that this actually *is* the case. I mean ultimately, I'm sure some folks lie - but I also think that if I hadn't been on these boards, I never would have thrown out lowball offers like I did.

TexasChick123 · Mar 21, 2019

ljmiii said:
I'm not saying that people lie about the price they paid for their car or device or DVC contract or whatever. Instead, people simply don't leave a record with their (user)name and price when they find out they've paid more than most respondents. Or to put it another way, "Disboards...where everyone paid less than average!"

Katie L said:
But I think it's fairly legitimate to believe that this actually *is* the case. I mean ultimately, I'm sure some folks lie - but I also think that if I hadn't been on these boards, I never would have thrown out lowball offers like I did.

Some people definitely lie. They like all the attention about how great of a deal they got. I would hope most tell the truth about what they paid because a lot of us rely on this info to be truthful, but it’s naive to think anonymous people on an internet message board never lie. I’ve gotten great deals on some contracts and paid market rate on others. I think that’s most of us who buy more than one contract. I don’t feel the need to lie about my contract info, but there are some strange people out there...

Noodlez · Mar 21, 2019

ljmiii said:
Self reported sales data often skews low compared to actual sales data - no one wants to say they overpaid. I assume this applies to DVC sales and ROFR data as well.

I don't know if this is true or not, but all I can say is that if it is true then to all of you who withheld the truth THANK YOU! Due to the 'misinformation' on this and other forums I was perfectly happy offering slightly below what I believed to be the current average, and settling at $127. If all of you who paid over $157 had actually spoken up on here I could have believed that was realistic and been out $30 a point!

Resale prices are driven by resale buyers, and I'm so glad I was misinformed about what the realistic price was.

ljmiii · Mar 21, 2019

Noodlez said:
Resale prices are driven by resale buyers, and I'm so glad I was misinformed about what the realistic price was.

Congratulations on your excellent deal!

That said, prices are set by buyers *and* sellers. When I sold some of my BCV points last year I set the price a reasonable amount above the actual average sales price for the past few months. A few people tried to bottom fish but then I got a buyer who was serious and we ended up halfway between my 'ask' and the average. Which of course was higher than the disboard ROFR threads.

Bobb_o · Mar 23, 2019

My ROFR is currently going on for an AKV 120pt at $115. I know I'm paying more than the minimum but I feel like at most in losing out on ~$600 in savings but if that gets me a contract I want not being taken so be it. My biggest regret is not looking into seriously buying DVC until this month and missing a benefit by a couple months.

Have dvc prices risen or dropped since new restrictions?

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