Such an interesting topic. I remember when people were convinced that Walt Disney World would end Star Wars races because 2017 Dark Side did not sell out. What they weren't accounting for is that runDisney had more than enough slots available to all interested runners. I think I heard 20,000 runners in the half that year which tells me that runDisney had plenty of participants.
I would also add a 5th factor. Saturation on the runDisney
only market. Meaning sufficient races to handle runDisney participants.
When I registered for my very first runDisney event, they offered the following choices:
Walt Disney World:
Marathon Weekend
Princess
Everest 5K only
Wine & Dine
Disneyland:
Disneyland Half only
When I registered for my 4 runDisney event 3 years later, they offered the following races:
Walt Disney World:
Marathon Weekend
Princess
Everest 5K
Tower of Terror 10 Miler
Wine & Dine
Disneyland:
Disneyland Half
Tinkerbell
Avengers
Star Wars
Now Disney World replaced the 2 "shorter" distance weekends with Star Wars. If Disneyland races resume, I believe they will continue to offer at least 3 race weekends. However, the only "safe" themes are Disneyland Half and Star Wars. Avengers had really low numbers so I think it could see a retheme and Tink will remain a women's themed race, but possibly with a new theme. I could see them doing a Coast to Coast Fairy Tale Challenge similar to the Kessel Run if Disneyland Races come back.
Since I first started runDisney, their race offerings have increased even with Disneyland going away at least temporarily. More race choices could well mean decreased registrations at other previously sold out race weekends. I chose Wine & Dine as my first Disney World race because at that time it was the only Disney World race weekend that worked for me timing wise.
I think this does play a factor, but perhaps moreso in returning runDisney veterans. More race weekends per year also means more travel costs for non locals. A Disney fan talked into it or someone who just wants to try runDisney may be less inclined to obsess over cost because they may view it as more expensive one off race. Now someone who runs Disney races frequently may say I can only run 2 races at Disney this year.
This one really depends on each individual's perception. Frequency also plays a factor here, which is also why I think they've started to switch to new medal designs every year instead of the same design slightly tweaked until an update. If you run the same race every year and all you get is the same medal with a new ribbon, it could get real old, real fast.
3. Overall decrease in running races worldwide
This one definitely plays a factor. A decrease in running is going to effect everyone.
Another bigger factor especially as legacy runners begin to come in. I can also see a runner deciding "I want to have legacy status for this race through year 5, but after that we'll see." And now that runners expect something extra special for anniversary years, they may well attempt to plan runDisney trips tied into anniversary races. This also plays into cost because for non locals, travel and lodging also come into play.