DVC RESALES
DVC RESALES

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Old 12-19-2013, 07:12 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by RonaldBravo View Post
If you had to buy into it today? Would you do it? Assume all of the circumstances are the same when you bought into originally.
Probably not for several reasons. Truthfully our situation and options have changed more than DVC has so it's not really a knock on DVC. If I didn't own now and all else I had were the same I'd likely buy a small contract of 50-75 (maybe even 25) just for the internal perks.

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Originally Posted by PacoDF View Post
AI'm evaluating purchasing DVC, and the remaining value of a contract after 10 years is almost the most important variable of all my projections.

I've seen than most people make their evaluations considering the full life of the contracts (until expiration, so remaining value = 0). I understand doing that, but if instead you do a 8, 10 or 15 years projection considering a final sale of your contract at an estimated remaining value, your results can be very different.

Even making that kind of projection, you can decide you want to keep your contract until expiration. But that decision hasnt to be made today, you can decide that anytime.

A timeframe of 8, 10 or 15 years is easier to foresee in terms of your family vacation requirements/plans. Most families can see they are wanting to go yearly/often when their kids are younger but are not sure what will happen after that. So, adding the remaining value of their contract at the "end" of that period makes a lot of sense when you are considering the purchase.
I would offer a third option as the best and safest approach. It's difficult to project resale value in 10-15 years, a LOT could change between now and then. Plus there's no guarantee one can sell at any price. What I recommend is projecting NO value in 10-15 years but continued dues for the life of the contract. IMO, if the numbers don't work with this assumption, that person really is not a good candidate for DVC anyway.

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Originally Posted by RonaldBravo View Post
I know you lose out on the adventures by disney stuff when you by resale, but what about the other perks? Would I retain any of those or not?
You lose NOTHING of value with a resale purchase as it stands right now. IF buying DVC without any other perks doesn't make sense, buying simply doesn't make sense. Currently you lose ALL cash type exchanges and the ability to do member cruises unless you own qualified points. You still have BVTC and RCI options and all direct membership perks like dining discounts. Unless DVC develops a VIP system, it's unlikely there will be any substantial changes going forward but I'm sure there will be some changes.

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Originally Posted by samfsu View Post
Is Disney expensive? Yes but comparatively, it is less expensive that other vacations. For instance. My family and I are going to Colorado next week to ski. The vacation compared to Disney is very expensive. We will likely spend as much if not more for a week in CO than for 2 weeks at Disney.

Consider when thinking Disney is expensive is that when you are in the park, all your entertainment is paid for. There is no time limit with the exception of park hours. Stay for an hour, come back later in the day or be in the park for 12-20 hrs. Your choice.
Overall Disney, inc DVC, is a very expensive trip from where I stand. It sounds like you're comparing to paying cash for the rooms and considering the "value" you feel. Even living 4 hours away, I find DVC one of our most expensive trips overall even trading in through RCI so paying less than most. For larger trips (HI, Aruba, MX) we usually average around $175 per day for 2 people including ALL expenses (car, food, air, recreation AND indirect timeshare expenses) give or take. As for cooking, I don't think most DVC members realize much savings from the kitchen though some do.

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Originally Posted by RonaldBravo View Post
When I first learned about the DVC, two weeks ago from a lady behind us in the long dole whip line, (the longest line we had to wait in during our trip, it was good but not 45 mins good) I was really ready to sign up through Disney but it seems everyday I learn another downside to the DVC. To me the reduction of the points value the further you travel from the parks is the biggest turn off. I would just assume go through disney but if the points really don't matter in other places all that much a resale seems to make much better sense.
IMO one should spend around 6 months minimum of active investigation before buying DVC or any other timeshare if one is new to the concept. Forewarned is forearmed as they say.
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Old 12-19-2013, 07:35 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Dean View Post
I would offer a third option as the best and safest approach. It's difficult to project resale value in 10-15 years, a LOT could change between now and then. Plus there's no guarantee one can sell at any price. What I recommend is projecting NO value in 10-15 years but continued dues for the life of the contract. IMO, if the numbers don't work with this assumption, that person really is not a good candidate for DVC anyway.
.
I get your point and is good advice for those with very high risk aversion. But I think is very unlikely that in 10-15 years the remaining value of a contract would be=0. It could be more or less, but not zero. Not even the oldest resorts.
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Old 12-19-2013, 08:00 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by PacoDF View Post
I get your point and is good advice for those with very high risk aversion. But I think is very unlikely that in 10-15 years the remaining value of a contract would be=0. It could be more or less, but not zero. Not even the oldest resorts.
The US could be owned by China in 10-15 years and the dollar will be worthless. You just don't know.
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Old 12-19-2013, 08:19 PM   #34
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I get your point and is good advice for those with very high risk aversion. But I think is very unlikely that in 10-15 years the remaining value of a contract would be=0. It could be more or less, but not zero. Not even the oldest resorts.
IMO it's very possible. One may not even be able to sell in 10-15 years. But for sake of discussion, lets take both sides. If I'm wrong and DVC is worth say on average 50% in 15 years (realistic number), then you're better off than my estimate. If you're wrong and DVC isn't worth nearly as much as you're assuming, you're in trouble. When I look at DVC from an investment standpoint, I assume ROI in 10 years which seems to be the standard for risky investments from what little I've seen. The problem is that IF you have to drag it out far longer to make sense, it really doesn't, your margin is too small. IMO one needs a 20% savings or a 20% increased real value to justify buying and DVC rack rates mean nothing in that equation UNLESS you would have paid that consistently anyway not owning. There's almost no way to get that buying retail or buying extra points to use for cash type exchanges.
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Old 12-19-2013, 08:42 PM   #35
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There's almost no way to get that buying retail or buying extra points to use for cash type exchanges.
I agree with you 100% on that. Paying direct prices will move the break even year way beyond 10 years. Even more if you spend your points in cheapier cash trades.

I also concur with you that if your break even is more than 10 years away, you shouldn't buy.
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Old 12-19-2013, 08:53 PM   #36
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I agree with you 100% on that. Paying direct prices will move the break even year way beyond 10 years. Even more if you spend your points in cheapier cash trades.

I also conquer with you that if your break even is more than 10 years away, you shouldn't buy.
I've arrived at the opinion that for DVC to make sense, the financials should make sense with reasonable to conservative numbers as a qualifying consideration. However, after that, timeshares are really mostly behavior more than finances. I've also come to believe that risk is far more important than the numbers for timeshares and finances in general. Some believe that's radical and that normal is to finance cars, vacations, etc but to me normal=broke.
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Old 12-20-2013, 07:32 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by RonaldBravo View Post
If you had to buy into it today? Would you do it? Assume all of the circumstances are the same when you bought into originally.
NO or could be a maybe....we tossed around the buy in question for a long time. My wife and I would go once a year....then the kids started coming. Our stays went from small rooms to our last non DVC stay at the Wilderness Cabins, love them by the way. Over the years we kept seeing the price go up so finally we took the plunge at BWV. With 4 kids DVC has been a life saver. Now I look at Disney direct pricing at over $100 point the affordability factor comes into play for many families, mine included. Resale would be the only way I would entertain the thought today....direct pricing is crazy. With that being said, we love our DVC especially that it's all paid off!
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Old 12-20-2013, 02:49 PM   #38
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With current direct pricing, it takes too long to break even on the purchase. This also does not take into account the cost of tickets, dining, etc. As much as I love Disney, I would have to pass on the cost of buying direct right now.
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Old 12-20-2013, 03:41 PM   #39
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I'm beginning to think, as a new perspective buyer, that a Wyndham membership might be better. Is that a bad word around here?
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Old 12-20-2013, 03:48 PM   #40
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I'm beginning to think, as a new perspective buyer, that a Wyndham membership might be better. Is that a bad word around here?
In many ways, I agree with you. But I also think there's a fair amount of risk involved.

If you hope to frequently stay at DVC resorts via trade, the trade process carries a lot of uncertainties. Understanding the system will definitely give you an advantage but you're still at the mercy of DVC/RCI in terms of what is released for trade.

If either DVC or Wyndham change their trading affiliations, you could have a problem.

You won't get access to DVC perks like the Annual Pass discount.

There are additional fees involved in the trading process. Not enormous fees but still worthy of note.

And I think there's a much greater risk you could be stuck with the Wyndham contract beyond the point you may wish to own it. DVC contracts have historically been very easy to sell, given proper pricing. Wyndham...not so much. Of course, if you're paying next-to-nothing to buy a Wyndham contract, there isn't any expectation of a back-end return. But under poor market conditions, you may be unable to get rid of the Wyndham points for months or years after you start looking for a buyer.
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Old 12-20-2013, 03:57 PM   #41
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I'm beginning to think, as a new perspective buyer, that a Wyndham membership might be better. Is that a bad word around here?
The answer is "It Depends". If one is happy off site, many are actually happier, you'd be correct. If one is looking at one option to do both Disney and non Disney trips, I think you're right again. Of course there's a big cost difference up front and a variable but noticeable yearly difference. Wyndham isn't the only consideration either, there are other companies that could be better for a given person & situation.
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Old 12-20-2013, 04:05 PM   #42
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I'm beginning to think, as a new perspective buyer, that a Wyndham membership might be better. Is that a bad word around here?
IMO all timeshare programs have a "we got ya so now we don't need to provide a great product" business plan. We thought that Disney would be different and early on they were.

Now they are just like the others, changing the rules and policies, devoting most to their effort to sales not service. Like most companies today they are driven by profit not customer satisfaction.

I thought it interesting during an association meeting a couple of years ago when then newly appointed head of the DVC publicly promised full transparency. This was after 3 DVC/DVD executives were fired including the president of DVC. From her promise I got the feeling that there was some real issues behind the curtain, more than were made public. She was transferred to Paris after 18 months.

So Disney is like other companies, but if the DVC product fits your needs and you buy into it knowing what to expect, then go for it. You can always sell at any time should you decide to do so.

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Old 12-20-2013, 05:05 PM   #43
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I'm beginning to think, as a new perspective buyer, that a Wyndham membership might be better. Is that a bad word around here?
Its not a bad word at all...but if I were doing it over, I'd stick with cash. We could have rented DVC points and we'd be a little behind financially - but actually probably not because we wouldn't have treated friends and family if we had outlays of cash instead of points. And there was a least one Disney trip we would have skipped.

Cash is simply flexible in ways timeshare ownership isn't. If the transmission goes out in the car, cash will fix it - a timeshare needs to be turned into cash through rental. Cash has allowed us to find some great deals, sometimes in timeshare units, sometimes in hotels.

The best thing DVC gave us was family vacations where - because we always stayed in a one or two bedroom - we weren't tripping over each other. But we could have gotten that other ways with cash. The one thing cash wouldn't have gotten us was habitual vacations - DVC forced us to vacation when we might have skipped (sometimes, as I said, treating others). That's been a nice benefit of ownership.
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Old 12-20-2013, 05:47 PM   #44
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DVC has allowed us better accommodations at a place that has created an unbelievable environment. They have so many of the bases covered in managing an enormous empire. There would be no amazing movies with the corresponding characters in the parks the very week of the release.

We don't take for granted the undertaking that Disney has done to create what they have... it's one heck of a feat. There is NO company that has achieved anything remotely close, and that costs. We'll manage with the increases, or cut back a bit and do some rentals. We don't expect any treatment by Disney... know what we bought and exactly what it entails.
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Old 12-20-2013, 09:33 PM   #45
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Yes.

We vacationed at WDW Poly many times in the 70's, honeymooned at Vacation Villas (SSR), stayed away in the 80's until our youngest was 4 (no, I don't think it's fun to vacation with a baby - we went to the beach ). We began vacationing at WDW again - cabins, moderates and finally moving to deluxe. Frankly, I am glad we didn't buy DVC when the kids were young because part of the vacation experience was the housekeeping (someone else making the bed, cleaning the bathrm, neatening up the room and replenishing the coffee supplies - extra pillows, please).

We'd looked into DVC over the years, even staying at OKW in 2001 and decided against. For us, buying after the kids were off on their own works. We enjoy spending time with each other. We like the DVC venues. We don't expect much, don't begrudge the worn textiles or feel 'entitled' to more than a discounted bed in a location within walking distance to a park. We don't wait in lines, do ADRs or plan to vacation with family/friends. If our 'kids' join us, that's fine but not a requirement. Our friends and family are beach people and I don't envy them their toes in the sand any more than they envy me our $8 beverage staring at a man made lake.
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