DVC RESALES
DVC RESALES

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Old 10-25-2013, 05:20 PM   #1
Lorajo
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Beginning to think about a possible purchase. We have rented points about 4 times in the past 6 years so we know we enjoy the resorts.
We love staying at the BW/BC area and always thought if we bought it would be a resale in that area.
I just saw the pics of the new Floridian villas and I'm sorta in love....
I realize that listing price is basically double the price of her boardwalk resales. But the new GF contract is also for an additional 22 years. Between that and the high-desirability of the Floridian, this should really slow down the decline of Floridian resales compared to boardwalk resales in the future.
Have any number-crunchers calculated the value to the buyer of having an extra 22 years on a contract?

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Old 10-25-2013, 05:39 PM   #2
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IMO the extra years doesn't mean much. I doubt if we will be owners in 20 years, 50 years is just too far off to think about.

A lot can happen in 20 years, jobs change, kids move out, DW moves out, Disney is bought out, or you might just want to stay home and grow a garden.

For us owning at our favorite resorts is more important than length of contract.

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Old 10-25-2013, 07:54 PM   #3
Lorajo
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I know I would be happy with both resorts.

I'm just wondering what the true price difference between the two resorts really is.

I agree that things change and I can see us selling as our kids grow up which is why future resale value is important to me as well.



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Old 10-26-2013, 06:39 AM   #4
nd43
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Originally Posted by Lorajo View Post
I know I would be happy with both resorts.

I'm just wondering what the true price difference between the two resorts really is.

I agree that things change and I can see us selling as our kids grow up which is why future resale value is important to me as well.



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There was a thread awhile back where I calculated the final cost of ownership based on a projected future value of a new resort compared to an existing resort after a period of time assuming you eventually sell the contract. It certainly was not universally supported (I.e. Many disagree with the basic premise).

However, given no one has experienced a resale market with contracts that have 10 years or less time left on them (which a BC resale might have after your ownership is done) no one can predict how quickly or how far the value of the contract will fall. However, in that same time, the VGF contract will have years left very similar to BC today and we know that resale market, under those conditions, remained relatively strong.

I still believe that the future resale value of older resorts is a understated risk in resale as people have simply never seen a resale market with near ending expiration so they cannot predict that impact on the future price. Disney may or may not offer an extension and no one knows, even if they did, how it would be priced.

So, if you planned to keep DVC 10 to 15 years, it is worth considering what would be left on the BC contract when you go to sell it and the possible price pressure this will have. That might materially impact the final cost of DVC ownership compared to VGF, and I believe, the final cost of ownership will not be as far apart as some others might using their own assumptions.

In the end, this is a math calc based on a set of assumptions that can be wildly off by myself or anyone else. So, to be upfront, if you can afford either, buy where you want to stay and leave the spreadsheet to others. This is about really enjoying your vacations. I just like the math debate for some reason.
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Old 10-26-2013, 11:23 AM   #5
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Just another way to look at the cost.
Look at the points required for the same unit size to help determine where you may like to buy.

VGF 1 BR Dream season STD = 308 Lake = 366
BWV 1 BR Dream season STD = 206 POOL/BW= 255

That's 100 points more, on average for GF vs BW. At $160 GF vs $75 BW resale.
GF 308 x 160 = $49,280
BW 206 x 75 = $15,600

Good luck deciding.
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Old 10-26-2013, 12:39 PM   #6
DisneyDenis
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Prior poster has a point about "point inflation" at VGF. BWV where I own has the 2nd "cheapest" rooms in all of DVC - standard studio. Only AKV Value Studio is cheaper!!! One advantage is that you can stay at the VGF studio with a party of 5, not 4 like other resorts. I use studios for my examples because that is the most efficient use of DVC points.

That said you can stay at the other at the 7 month mark. You could stay at BWV with "expensive" VGF points or stay at VGF with "cheap" BWV points.

Another consideration is if financing is involved. Manytimes VGF purchase involves Disney financing. This adds to the actual point cost, presuming BWV is not financed.
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Old 10-26-2013, 03:25 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lorajo View Post
Beginning to think about a possible purchase. We have rented points about 4 times in the past 6 years so we know we enjoy the resorts.
We love staying at the BW/BC area and always thought if we bought it would be a resale in that area.
I just saw the pics of the new Floridian villas and I'm sorta in love....
I realize that listing price is basically double the price of her boardwalk resales. But the new GF contract is also for an additional 22 years. Between that and the high-desirability of the Floridian, this should really slow down the decline of Floridian resales compared to boardwalk resales in the future.
Have any number-crunchers calculated the value to the buyer of having an extra 22 years on a contract?

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For your intentions, the extra 22 years is 100% irrelevant now and should be ignored.

Why pay 2x for VGF over BW/BC if you like the boardwalk location and can stay at VGF at the 7 month mark.

In fact, you could buy 2x the points at BW/BC over VGF.

Only buy VGF if you want to stay there and be able to book at the 11 month mark.
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Old 10-26-2013, 04:06 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by BillPA View Post
Just another way to look at the cost.
Look at the points required for the same unit size to help determine where you may like to buy.

VGF 1 BR Dream season STD = 308 Lake = 366
BWV 1 BR Dream season STD = 206 POOL/BW= 255

That's 100 points more, on average for GF vs BW. At $160 GF vs $75 BW resale.
GF 308 x 160 = $49,280
BW 206 x 75 = $15,600

Good luck deciding.
This is exactly why we decided to keep adding on at BWV as opposed to buying some GFV.
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Old 10-26-2013, 08:44 PM   #9
Lorajo
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Thanks all for bringing me back to reality.

For the amount I'd want to spend, I can get so many more BW points. I'd always be happy to stay there. I'd love to try GF one day but I could still do that.

An extra 100 points a week makes you think as well!

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Old 10-26-2013, 09:10 PM   #10
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We have loved Grand Floridian and due to work constraints HAVE to book far in advance... guess paying for convenience has definitely applied to VGF purchase!
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Old 10-27-2013, 06:44 AM   #11
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We have loved Grand Floridian and due to work constraints HAVE to book far in advance... guess paying for convenience has definitely applied to VGF purchase!
Because of work we have to go at crowded times. I ended up selling because I can't get reservations 7 months out where I like to go. I bought where I don't like because that was what was being sold....didn't know about resale....and didn't really think about it too long. I really suggest buying where you like to go.
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Old 10-27-2013, 08:38 AM   #12
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For your intentions, the extra 22 years is 100% irrelevant now and should be ignored.

Why pay 2x for VGF over BW/BC if you like the boardwalk location and can stay at VGF at the 7 month mark.

In fact, you could buy 2x the points at BW/BC over VGF.

Only buy VGF if you want to stay there and be able to book at the 11 month mark.
I don't agree with the premise that you will be able to stay at VGF at the 7 month mark with BWV points. Technically you should be able to, but practically, I think it will be VERY difficult.

Between fixed week purchases and the fact that it's a tiny resort that will be in high demand by its owners that paid a premium to buy there and points rented out, I think it will be very difficult to get reservations if it's not your home resort. That's why we decided to buy there frankly over anything on the resale market.
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Old 10-27-2013, 09:21 AM   #13
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I don't agree with the premise that you will be able to stay at VGF at the 7 month mark with BWV points. Technically you should be able to, but practically, I think it will be VERY difficult.

Between fixed week purchases and the fact that it's a tiny resort that will be in high demand by its owners that paid a premium to buy there and points rented out, I think it will be very difficult to get reservations if it's not your home resort. That's why we decided to buy there frankly over anything on the resale market.
Every time a new DVC resort is built, people say the same thing and it turns out to be not true, with the possible exception with GCV.

I am not saying that getting a value studio at GFV at 7 months will be possible 100% of the time, I am only stating that there will be "good" availability of GFV at lots of 7 month dates, but the low point rooms will be booked fast.
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Old 10-27-2013, 10:12 AM   #14
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Every time a new DVC resort is built, people say the same thing and it turns out to be not true, with the possible exception with GCV.

I am not saying that getting a value studio at GFV at 7 months will be possible 100% of the time, I am only stating that there will be "good" availability of GFV at lots of 7 month dates, but the low point rooms will be booked fast.
But VGF doesn't have any value rooms.

The least expensive VGF room is 17 points per night. A one-bedroom starts at 33 points per night. And that's during the slow season. A VGF Studio goes as high as 37 points per night!

VGF will eat up points like no other WDW DVC resort before it. Considering most DVC contracts are under 200 points and VGF is selling at $150/point, I suspect many VGF members will buy just enough points for the Studios. There only are 47 Studios at VGF. Compare that to, for example, 65 at VWL or 110 at BCV.

A Studio at the VGF might not be as difficult to book as AKV concierge but once all the points are sold, it should quickly become one of the most difficult DVC rooms to book.
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Old 10-27-2013, 11:15 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by DVC Dude View Post
Every time a new DVC resort is built, people say the same thing and it turns out to be not true, with the possible exception with GCV.

I am not saying that getting a value studio at GFV at 7 months will be possible 100% of the time, I am only stating that there will be "good" availability of GFV at lots of 7 month dates, but the low point rooms will be booked fast.
I agree. Every time it's said. No time has it happened.

Fixed weeks will add another kink to VGF but it will still be possible to book there at 7 months. Maybe not all times of the year but many. If a person only wants to stay at VGF that's one thing and they should buy VGF points but if they're like the OP and they like BWV and would just like to stay every now and then at VGF I think BWV points are the way to go. Even if it were to become virtually impossible to get a room there at 7 months a person could rent VGF points from an owner and then rent out their own resort points out but I don't believe that would be necessary for most times.

We'll come back to this in 4-5 years or so and see how it turned out.
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