DVC RESALES
DVC RESALES

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Old 05-01-2013, 08:43 PM   #16
Illini Al
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I cannot believe the drop in inventory and rise in prices. I got in just in time. My $49 SSR contract from a couple months ago is looking better everyday.
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Old 05-01-2013, 08:56 PM   #17
theguda
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The prices you're seeing are not...repeat...not inflated. Instead, the prices paid over the past year or so were overly deflated.

These prices aren't going back down. They're going to keep rising. When Disney announces DVC at the Grand Floridian you're gonna see a spike in interest. People will want DVC and those those won't pay the GF price will look for alternatives in the resale market. This demand will continue to drive prices up. Trust me...I slept in a Holiday Inn last night.

If you want a good deal...you can still find them. Those who wait will pay higher prices in the future. If you bought a contract within the last year...congratulations, you bought at the bottom.
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Old 05-01-2013, 09:27 PM   #18
DizBub
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theguda View Post
The prices you're seeing are not...repeat...not inflated. Instead, the prices paid over the past year or so were overly deflated.

These prices aren't going back down. They're going to keep rising. When Disney announces DVC at the Grand Floridian you're gonna see a spike in interest. People will want DVC and those those won't pay the GF price will look for alternatives in the resale market. This demand will continue to drive prices up. Trust me...I slept in a Holiday Inn last night.

If you want a good deal...you can still find them. Those who wait will pay higher prices in the future. If you bought a contract within the last year...congratulations, you bought at the bottom.
I believe you may be right. Not that it's all bad news. Just means our existing contracts could be worth more than we expected should we ever decide to sell. I'm all for them propping up resale prices.

I'm not waiting for rock bottom prices....looking for more inventory. Some of those small contracts people are buying direct will show up on resale sites eventually.
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Old 05-01-2013, 09:38 PM   #19
fmer55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theguda View Post
The prices you're seeing are not...repeat...not inflated. Instead, the prices paid over the past year or so were overly deflated.

These prices aren't going back down. They're going to keep rising. When Disney announces DVC at the Grand Floridian you're gonna see a spike in interest. People will want DVC and those those won't pay the GF price will look for alternatives in the resale market. This demand will continue to drive prices up. Trust me...I slept in a Holiday Inn last night.

If you want a good deal...you can still find them. Those who wait will pay higher prices in the future. If you bought a contract within the last year...congratulations, you bought at the bottom.
C'mon dude, you are the analytical one, the one with all the answers and you are now in ROFR at a property with 29 years left on it. That contract will be worthless in 15- 20 years. People didn't want to pay $20pp to extend OKW for 15 years.

The bubble is already over, prices will stabilize from here, IMO. ROFR lasted all of 2 weeks and that was to clear up the waitlist that was artificially created by the increase to $130.

As to the BWV listed at $85 you need to read a little deeper into those listings. They are all the same seller, 2 of the 3 cannot close until November due to pending vacations. You cannot even consider those as real listings. They are posted by P.T. Barnum, there is one born every minute.

Back to TheGuda......I wish you the best in ROFR, and i fully want you to enjoy your points, Good Luck!!!
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Old 05-01-2013, 10:58 PM   #20
theguda
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C'mon dude, you are the analytical one, the one with all the answers and you are now in ROFR at a property with 29 years left on it. That contract will be worthless in 15- 20 years. People didn't want to pay $20pp to extend OKW for 15 years.
That's completely untrue. Let's pretend DVC started decades ago and when it started you bought a 100 point BWV contract that expires in 3 years. The MF's this year are $5.84...or $584 for all 100 points. The next cheapest option to stay at WDW is to rent points for around $12....or $1200 for 100 points.

Right off the bat your contract saves the owner $616 the first year. Extrapolate that over the 3 years remaining on the contract (assuming a similar savings each year, which is a safe assumption) and the remainder of your contract would save the owner over $1800. That's hardly worthless. A smart person would buy your contract for $1000 and realize an $800 savings over 3 years.

When you say today's contracts are worthless in 15-20 years...that's simply not true. I have a feeling you wouldnt hand over your contracts to me for free in 15-20 years. If so, I'll gladly take them off your hands.
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Old 05-01-2013, 11:03 PM   #21
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That's completely untrue. Let's pretend DVC started decades ago and when it started you bought a 100 point BWV contract that expires in 3 years. The MF's this year are $5.84...or $584 for all 100 points. The next cheapest option to stay at WDW is to rent points for around $12....or $1200 for 100 points.

Right off the bat your contract saves the owner $616 the first year. Extrapolate that over the 3 years remaining on the contract (assuming a similar savings each year, which is a safe assumption) and the remainder of your contract would save the owner over $1800. That's hardly worthless. A smart person would buy your contract for $1000 and realize an $800 savings over 3 years.

When you say today's contracts are worthless in 15-20 years...that's simply not true. I have a feeling you wouldnt hand over your contracts to me for free in 15-20 years. If so, I'll gladly take them off your hands.
There is value in use and a couple bucks renting, but resale? I stand by my statement. The problem with your reasoning is you think people look at this as a type of investment when the fact is the vast majority understand this is a prepaid vacation.
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Old 05-02-2013, 12:57 AM   #22
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I do agree that anyone that bought in the last year bought at the bottom of the market. I think that durning the recession a lot of people were forced to sell and it was a buyer's market. Today with the limited inventory of points, it looks like a seller's market, which should keep price higher than all of us 'deal hunters' are use to.

How I wish my OKW contracts from last Mar had made it through ROFR. I think it will be a long time before I get someone to accept $39/point for OKW.
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Old 05-02-2013, 05:49 AM   #23
theguda
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Originally Posted by fmer55

There is value in use and a couple bucks renting, but resale? I stand by my statement. The problem with your reasoning is you think people look at this as a type of investment when the fact is the vast majority understand this is a prepaid vacation.
.

Ok...you do admit there is value is renting those points. That means these contracts never become worthless.

Let's take the next step...resale. You seem to think there would be no value is resale and again, that's not true. if you have years left on your contract that still represents a way for someone to pay MF costs instead of renting. Doesn't matter if it's 1 year left on the contract or 29. People buy one time discounts everyday via Groupon, LivingSocial, etc just to save $5. You think someone wouldn't buy a resale contract to save $500???
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Old 05-02-2013, 05:55 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by DougEMG
I do agree that anyone that bought in the last year bought at the bottom of the market. I think that durning the recession a lot of people were forced to sell and it was a buyer's market. Today with the limited inventory of points, it looks like a seller's market, which should keep price higher than all of us 'deal hunters' are use.

How I wish my OKW contracts from last Mar had made it through ROFR. I think it will be a long time before I get someone to accept $39/point for OKW.
I wish i would have bought a few months ago...but after looking at historical #'s I'm happy to pay $68 for a stacked BWV contract. I could be wrong and prices could drop...but it looks more likely that we've just exited a bottom period in the market
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Old 05-02-2013, 06:35 AM   #25
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Right now, prices are much higher due to increased demand, DVC exercising ROFR more frequently, less inventory, & wait lists generated by the price increase. Once GF is offered for sale, I don't think this trend is going to continue. I think prices will stabilize. People may sell their old properties to purchase GF or people may simply be interested in purchasing GF with less focus & demand on older properties. I don't necessarily think prices will decrease significantly, if at all, but I don't think they are going to continue to sharply increase. Smaller contracts (under 100 points) will continue to sell for a premium as they are less readily available & demand for those is consistently greater. Even looking at the Fidelity web site, prices range from 1/2 of buying direct to equal to buying direct. Doesn't mean a seller is going to get asking price. $85 on a stripped, larger point point contract is inflated. I just don't see anyone paying asking price. I would not pay that for a 50 point stripped contract either. Although someone may as the difference is nominal on a smaller contract although I don't see the value in it.
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Old 05-02-2013, 06:38 AM   #26
Minniesgal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theguda View Post
The prices you're seeing are not...repeat...not inflated. Instead, the prices paid over the past year or so were overly deflated.

These prices aren't going back down. They're going to keep rising. When Disney announces DVC at the Grand Floridian you're gonna see a spike in interest. People will want DVC and those those won't pay the GF price will look for alternatives in the resale market. This demand will continue to drive prices up. Trust me...I slept in a Holiday Inn last night.

If you want a good deal...you can still find them. Those who wait will pay higher prices in the future. If you bought a contract within the last year...congratulations, you bought at the bottom.
I disagree totally I think the current prices are an artificially inflated bubble driven by Disney advertising and low inventory. Disney are fairly well through the direct wait lists. the reason i know this is i wait listed VGC in January and was told several times that had the longest wait list of all and my points have come through already. ROFR buy backs have been lower recently than they were just a few weeks ago.

Disney cleverly created a frenzy that buyers and sellers reacted to. I believe certainly the top end of the asking prices we see today will drop very soon.

The classic resorts will drop in value quite soon as people are going to be come more and more aware of the expiry date. I'm not convinced VGF will make a lot of people buy personally it doesn't interest me at all and I know a lot of the same opinion. Now if it were the Poly different story.
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Old 05-02-2013, 06:41 AM   #27
Minniesgal
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Originally Posted by theguda View Post
That's completely untrue. Let's pretend DVC started decades ago and when it started you bought a 100 point BWV contract that expires in 3 years. The MF's this year are $5.84...or $584 for all 100 points. The next cheapest option to stay at WDW is to rent points for around $12....or $1200 for 100 points.

Right off the bat your contract saves the owner $616 the first year. Extrapolate that over the 3 years remaining on the contract (assuming a similar savings each year, which is a safe assumption) and the remainder of your contract would save the owner over $1800. That's hardly worthless. A smart person would buy your contract for $1000 and realize an $800 savings over 3 years.

When you say today's contracts are worthless in 15-20 years...that's simply not true. I have a feeling you wouldnt hand over your contracts to me for free in 15-20 years. If so, I'll gladly take them off your hands.
You missed the point of that statement, the BWV contract might be worth something to you in 15 years as you already own it but no-one is going to pay you to take it off your hands.
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Old 05-02-2013, 06:54 AM   #28
theguda
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Originally Posted by Minniesgal

You missed the point of that statement, the BWV contract might be worth something to you in 15 years as you already own it but no-one is going to pay you to take it off your hands.
Again...not true. I don't know why this is hard to accept...but people will buy anything if it saves them money. Why do you think people stand in line for hours on Black Friday...or join websites like Slickdeals or Fat Wallet?
Tell you what...I'll buy any contract with 5 years remaining for $500 and make a small fortune renting the points....and so would all of the DVC rental point brokers. Anyone who tries to sell their DVC contract will never have a problem doing so. There will be plenty of people willing to buy it (either to rent the points out or to save $ on their own vacation). These contracts are never ever "worthless" and will always have a market for rental and resale. They will always have value not only to the current owner...but also to anyone who wants to rent points OR someone who would like to buy the contract to realize the savings until it expired.

Last edited by theguda; 05-02-2013 at 07:04 AM.
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Old 05-02-2013, 07:31 AM   #29
lodge
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Geez, maybe I should have listed my contract for more! I listed a 50 point BWV stripped contract a week or so ago and settled on $73/point. Granted, I doubt they'll get $85 for those contracts but may well get above what I got for a much larger contract.
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Originally Posted by NoleFan View Post
The site that listed the BWV contract in the $80's typically has listings well above market price. Personally, I would not pay those inflated prices.Also, none of those have gone to contract yet. Upcoming price reductions?
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Originally Posted by ELMC View Post
Me neither. However, there are people who are considering buying direct at $130pp who still see this as a discount.
That's been my thought process, then I saw a contract (always seem to be watching them) with small points, loaded to the gills, and the total cost of it paid for accommodations for a trip this year that we had not expected to use points for.... paid for itself right out of the gate.
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Old 05-02-2013, 07:44 AM   #30
Minniesgal
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Again...not true. I don't know why this is hard to accept...but people will buy anything if it saves them money. Why do you think people stand in line for hours on Black Friday...or join websites like Slickdeals or Fat Wallet?
Tell you what...I'll buy any contract with 5 years remaining for $500 and make a small fortune renting the points....and so would all of the DVC rental point brokers. Anyone who tries to sell their DVC contract will never have a problem doing so. There will be plenty of people willing to buy it (either to rent the points out or to save $ on their own vacation). These contracts are never ever "worthless" and will always have a market for rental and resale. They will always have value not only to the current owner...but also to anyone who wants to rent points OR someone who would like to buy the contract to realize the savings until it expired.
I wouldn't call being sellable for $500 having residual sales value.

Last edited by Minniesgal; 05-02-2013 at 08:18 AM.
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