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Old 02-08-2013, 05:25 AM   #31
lockedoutlogic
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Originally Posted by bom_noite View Post

Time will tell who is right and who is wrong. But, am confident my theories are correct. Why: Logic wins 99.9 of the time.
That's typically how it works here...whether in the short term or in the long...
By the way, everyone...Harry Potter IS fading...as expected


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Originally Posted by bom_noite View Post
entire "It should be Anaheim only sentiment" is ridiculous fodder that Iger looks past with no second thought! He will move this thing to Orlando, Paris, Hong Kong, China and four cities in Ecuador if he thinks it will be profitable! If you owned Disney Stock you would fire him if he did any less!

Do you honestly think a guy who makes 40 Million and wants to make 50 Million thinks "Carsland should be West Coast only?" No, he thinks can I got a potential winner here! Can it make me 5 more million if we took this east, to China, to Paris, to Tokyo?

While I love the DisBoards, the lunacy sometimes escapes me. Think like a guy who makes 40 Million and wants to make 50 Million. Not a guy who makes 40K and wants to make 50K while a bluebird is on his shoulder.

Trust me, there are more Orlando Execs sipping their morning coffee smiling and agreeing with me then many others here.
i agree...the thought process here tends to be coming from the wrong direction off the mental highway...

And that's why i agree wholeheartedly that they could put the cars attractions all over the map to save on cost and increase return. especially in the chinese parks. (though archaic love of internal combustion engines is more of an american thing...isn't it?)

BUT i don't necessarily agree that Orlando is a slam dunk scenario on that. Its ALREADY their frontline cash cow...investment actually delays the cash coming out of it in many ways.
The question is: does carlsand hold the same return on dollar at Studios that it did at DCA?

From an exposure standpoint...you'd think yes...many more potential customers (and southern fried ones...as well).
But from an impact on the park/themepark business segment perspective?...I'm not sold on that.
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Old 02-08-2013, 10:23 AM   #32
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I agree with everything Pete, but, I tried to argue it was the "SAFE" move - not the "SMART" move.
Oh, I agree it is definitely a "SAFE" move, but I also think it's a pretty "SMART" move. Is it the smartest move? No. The smartest move to me would be delay a little and bring in a serious Star Wars land. If they do the movies right - this will be HUGE. However, there is risk that the movies will tank. Carsland is SAFER - less investment faster build because the design work is already complete.

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Originally Posted by lockedoutlogic View Post
The question is: does carlsand hold the same return on dollar at Studios that it did at DCA?

From an exposure standpoint...you'd think yes...many more potential customers (and southern fried ones...as well).
But from an impact on the park/themepark business segment perspective?...I'm not sold on that.
I agree with you here - it won't have the same impact it did at DCA. It, along with WoC, made a park that most people disliked into a destination.

The problem Disney has is that most new things it puts in are only going to for the most part draw away from itself. The main reason for something like FLE is capacity expansion. If they continue to grow customers coming to the park, they need more rides, but FLE will do very little to bring new people in.

Carsland CAN do that to a degree. Again, for those that haven't actual ridden RSR, the ride is amazing. The popularity of Cars with kids is enough that it could actually draw people to stay/extend at WDW. But, what kind of a bump can they expect. I think 5 % overall would be impressive, with 2-3% more likely. Potentially a 10% bump @ DHS could occur. I think it would be that popular.

DCA saw what a 100% increase in attendence, and while DL saw a decrease, the overall increase was huge, and it drew people away from DL which had serious crowding issues. Long-term it makes DCA a viable 2nd gate, which it was not. Carsland in DHS will never be a home run of that magnitude. But I think it could be a solid double.
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Old 02-08-2013, 10:39 AM   #33
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By the way, everyone...Harry Potter IS fading...as expected
I havent seen the numbers for IofA for 2012 yet, have you?

How can you say Harry Potter is fading?
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Old 02-08-2013, 01:56 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by ChipnDale79 View Post
I havent seen the numbers for IofA for 2012 yet, have you?

How can you say Harry Potter is fading?
not the park attendance at universal...the franchise.

and the park will beholden to that. only the 2012 numbers will matter...and i haven't seen them yet....but there is a list of most lucrative from a licensing standpoint that surfaces every year...usually forbes, wall street journal..etc.

I would expect that the numbers are in significant decline for Harry Potter as the new material ended with the last year.

The franchise's longterm popularity at IOA will suffer over time as the audience dwindles...and it will dwindle without new material.
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Old 02-08-2013, 02:00 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by lockedoutlogic View Post
not the park attendance at universal...the franchise.

and the park will beholden to that. only the 2012 numbers will matter...and i haven't seen them yet....but there is a list of most lucrative from a licensing standpoint that surfaces every year...usually forbes, wall street journal..etc.

I would expect that the numbers are in significant decline for Harry Potter as the new material ended with the last year.

The franchise's longterm popularity at IOA will suffer over time as the audience dwindles...and it will dwindle without new material.
I think it will dwindle a little bit, but I think new generations will read the books and watch the movies much like LOTR and Star Wars.

Have you read the books and seen the movies?
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Old 02-08-2013, 02:45 PM   #36
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I think it will dwindle a little bit, but I think new generations will read the books and watch the movies much like LOTR and Star Wars.

Have you read the books and seen the movies?
I don't have any data, and I AM a Harry Potter fan (prefer the books to the movies but have read/seen them all, got books 4-7 the day they came out. The books are great..the movies less so.) but I don't see any way for it not to dwindle over the next five years.

The thing that makes any pop culture touchtone truly popular is new content. So many examples I can choose from, but I'll take the two you mention. LOTR never faded away completely, but only became a real money maker - and interest in "theme park" concept - once Peter Jackson made the movies. Then the three movies wrapped up, and it started to fade, then it surged again.

Star Wars popularity started to wane in the late-eighties/early-nineties. Then Lucas came out with the prequels. Regardless of the quality, that really made Star Wars as popular as ever. Star Wars remains evergreen with videogames, cartoon series, and now new movies.

I can list many other examples. Another equivalent to Harry Potter is the Narnia books. While kids still read them, until they decided to make them into movies, the popularity had faded significantly. Indiana Jones is another. Star Trek had faded significantly before JJ Abrahms brought it back. Even something like Mickey Mouse had really reduced in popularity until MMCH brought him back. Tinkerbell is another example with the Fairies line bringing her back to huge prominence.

I am not suggesting Harry Potter will "go away", but until JK Rowling signs off on herself or someone continuing that Universe - and you can bet people are trying to get her to - the popularity will slowly fade.

This is why I think Disney really SHOULD be focusing on Star Wars. Of all their products, that is one that if they really put behind a Star Wars land, adding say 2 rides, a stage show, and a restaurant and gift area, it could be a HUGE draw. Especially if they could get it open by 2016 or so. We talk about "SAFE" and "SMART", this is both. CARS is good, because being animated they can continue to push new product if necessary. As someone elsewhere pointed out, Star Wars is about to become its own GENRE. They can't do Marvel, but they can do this.

SkierPete

P.S. I know I this is coming off as very corporate/bottom dollar, but I always try to be a practical Disney fan. This isn't 1955, this is 2013, the way the business works is the way it works. This doesn't mean they shouldn't be able to give us some magical attractions, whether it's Star Wars, Cars, or Avatar. But I am looking at it from a real world view. Would I rather have something different in DHS than Carsland? Yep, I definitely would. But, most important is that they put in SOMETHING. The Backlot tour and LMA are both severly lame IMO. I want them to give me something. And if it was the Carsland of California, well, that would be a hell of a good step in the right direction!

Enough - I gotta head home in a snowstorm. See ya'll!
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Old 02-08-2013, 07:59 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChipnDale79

I think it will dwindle a little bit, but I think new generations will read the books and watch the movies much like LOTR and Star Wars.

Have you read the books and seen the movies?
Yes and Yes...

There is nothing there to produce lasting phenomenon. Good material...but my stance hasn't changed: too Short of attention spans and too much media available at the fingertips for this type of "cultural phenomenon" to endure.

Star Wars was huge because we didnt have anything available to replace it. It was Star Wars and then....what? The karate kid? The wwf? Teenage mutant ninja turtles? Comic books, action figures, atari 2600, and network TV

World has changed.

And until lord of the rings was adapted to movies...who ever really paid much attention to it for decades? It was on the 7th grade summer reading list and they made that claymation hobbit in the 70s.

The potter material is good. But without injection of new material on multiple media platforms...how is it reasonable to think it can sustain on a similar level? Certainly not print.

I could see it going into hibernation for 30 years until the original consumers have 10 year olds. As they do now with all toys - roll them bak out for the kids of who originally played with them.

That I'll give you.
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Old 02-09-2013, 01:41 AM   #38
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Doc, if you think I am a pompous idiot there is a good reason: I am a pompous idiot!

I do believe in my theories and love to defend them. I also enjoy the "give and take", I read everyone's opinion and am quick to change my opinion based on many of the fantastic posts I read.

Sometimes I come off wrong (and am the first to admit to it and HATE when I do that!), but, I love the passion and creativity of everyone here. We really are all on the same side. We all are here to discuss a place we love dearly! In my opinion there are no wrong answer on the Dis Boards.

The only reason I believe so many of my posts make sense is that I did work with the Orlando crew. And, it was a bloody experience - one that took me years to get past. Before we started our project I told my team: "These folks care passionately about quality and customer experience - all companies should be as passionate! Look and learn, we may walk away a better company!" We found something else. Advancement, Empire Building, Scape-Goating and Profits were king. It was many years ago - maybe it has changed.

I have seen it written that anyone who eats feels they can build a better Restaurant. I also think that anyone who has ridden a coaster feels they can run a better Theme Park. It ain't that easy despite our collective rantings.
~Good grief, bom_noite! I would never think anything like that about you! If I come across in that way, please accept my apology! Your posts are well articulated & so brilliant! It's just too bad (for me), when I don't agree with them, lol. And, you have a wonderful sense of humor!

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Originally Posted by raidermatt View Post
I don't want to duplicate too much from the other thread, but a few things.

Somebody pointed out that Cars wasn't the most popular of Pixar's films. This is true, but it did very well in merchandise sales, particularly to boys, where Disney has often struggled. So, Presto!, Cars got the first sequel other than Toy Story once that floodgate was opened, and Cars got a mini land in DCA.

As for how likely this is to happen, I'd have to say it is closer to 80% than 20%. But I also don't see that as any kind of proof that things are changing in Orlando, that they are finally willing to go all out. The reality is the new FL isn't bringing people in like they hoped, and they have to do something. Cut and pasting Cars Land (after a little trimming here and there) is the cheaper, easier way to go, which falls right in line with what we would expect.

The only thing that gives me pause is that some rumors say it is Iger and Lasseter that would prefer Star Wars or something else. Lasseter just because he thinks something different is a better strategy, and Iger because he wants to get some return on his $4 billion.
~I just don't get it, raider. DHS already has a commanding Star War presence -- Star Tours, Star Wars Gift shop, the huge Walker machine thing, Star Wars Week & that very popular Darth Varder training program for kids. I thought Star Wars land would be a given. I give up!!!

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I'm going to agree with Bom Noite over DRDISNEYMD - I hope she won't rescind my Captain America status. I think the Carsland is a smart move for Disney, and it makes a lot of sense, not just cents.

1) Cars is HUGELY popular amongst young boys 3-10 age group. HUGE. There quite a few girls (including my daughter) that like it too.
2) Disney will continue to leverage CARS merch and products. I've said it before about Harry Potter, I LOVE the Harry Potter books, but without new PRODUCT coming out, regardless of how good the books are, the popularity will fade. CARS on the other hand can continue to thrive (look at the - likely awful - PLANES coming out this summer). It IS a bigger competitor to Universal.
3) Regardless of what Disney fanatics may think, the majority of people don't spend time at BOTH WDW and DLR. A Carsland will be new to the vast majority of people.
4) They transferred the lead Imagineer of Carsland to DHS. Why would they do that?
5) I agree Star Wars is a smarter move for Disney, but possible that is too far out. A Carsland can be built much quicker and cheaper, because they've already done it once. Also, though Star Wars is more popular than Cars, Cars is more popular than Avatar - at least for Disney's demographic.
6) And I agree Al Lutz is one of the more reliable Disney rumor sources, though I would put him at only around 50/50.

So, my feeling is while it's not a sure thing - lots of signs are pointing to it.
~Wow... really, Pete?!? That's it, I'm taking the shield!

~Unfortunately, I think you're right. Carsland looks amazing at DCA! I'm not so convinced it will be as amazing at DHS, I really hope I'm wrong. Again, I have to remember to lower my expectations with this company -- it messes me up every. single. time. DHS is in desperate need of new family attractions, so it is more probable that Disney will take the "cheaper & quicker" alternative above all the other fabulous options, but I digress.
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Old 02-09-2013, 02:41 AM   #39
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Wasn't the whole point of Cars Land to lift ticket sales in Anaheim? Moving it here to Florida means that WDW has everything Disneyland has and more. So people would go to WDW more, destroying the point of Cars Land....
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Old 02-09-2013, 12:19 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by DRDISNEYMD View Post

~Wow... really, Pete?!? That's it, I'm taking the shield!
Drops to the ground and looks up at the heavens...."NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!"

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Originally Posted by DRDISNEYMD View Post
~Unfortunately, I think you're right. Carsland looks amazing at DCA! I'm not so convinced it will be as amazing at DHS, I really hope I'm wrong. Again, I have to remember to lower my expectations with this company -- it messes me up every. single. time. DHS is in desperate need of new family attractions, so it is more probable that Disney will take the "cheaper & quicker" alternative above all the other fabulous options, but I digress.
I hope that the real lesson they take from Carsland is "don't cheap out". Whatever they put in, if they do it right, then it'll be OK. I would even be OK if they JUST put in RSR...as long as it's not a watered down version.

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Wasn't the whole point of Cars Land to lift ticket sales in Anaheim? Moving it here to Florida means that WDW has everything Disneyland has and more. So people would go to WDW more, destroying the point of Cars Land....
Well, that's not the primary reason. The primary reason is to get people to go to California Adventure, a park they opened 12 years ago that was a near total bust with locals and tourists alike.
In 2000: Disneyland attendance was 13.9 million
In 2001, DCAs first year: Disneyland 12.3 million, DCA 5.0 million
In 2011, Disneyland 16.1 million, DCA 6.1 million
Much less growth in DCA than in DL, and that's after many improvements were already in place.

I haven't been able to get any concrete numbers for 2012, but I read (from Al Lutz) that Disney was *hoping* for 7.5 million in DCA in 2012, but it is expected DCA attendance has exceeded 10 million patrons in 2012. And that's with Carsland open only 1/2 a year. Disneyland Park numbers in the meantime have dropped relative to 2011, but overall attendance rose and that's all a big win for DLR. The situation could NOT have gone better for Disney out there.

But now remember, Disneyland is predominantly a locals park, and those attendance numbers are counted as the park a person first sets foot in for the day. Hopping doesn't count, so again, it's about spreading out the population.

That said, you've struck upon the ONLY logical reason NOT to duplicate it in WDW. This presumes that they have concrete data stating that Carsland is drawing people from the East Coast/Europe to visit Disneyland. If that is not the case, and they are still seeing attendance as mostly west coast driven, then there isn't a logical reason not to add Carsland.

(Remember, there are around ONE MILLION AP holders @ DLR. If you look at the above numbers, and say there were 22 million park attendee days in 2011, how many of those were AP holders. You don't buy an AP if you don't plan on going at least enough times to break even, which would be somewhere around 10-15 days. Since the MINIMUM is 10 days, I think we could safely say the average would be higher, say 15 days. On that assumption, 15 million of the 22 million attendee days would be AP holders, mostly locals. That's roughly 68% of patrons that guaranteed could care less if Disney put Carsland in Florida. This doesn't include other west coasters that DON'T have annual passes.)

Anyways, my assumptions are piling up quite a bit, so I think I'll stop for now. My point is, if Disney has reason to be concerned that Carsland will siphon off people from DCA, that might stop them from building it in Florida, but a quick look at the data says they probably don't have reason to fear that much. Therefore, it probably doesn't factor into the decision as much as you might hope.

SP
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Old 02-09-2013, 09:09 PM   #41
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Wasn't the whole point of Cars Land to lift ticket sales in Anaheim? Moving it here to Florida means that WDW has everything Disneyland has and more. So people would go to WDW more, destroying the point of Cars Land....
Kind of my thoughts too... Almost everyone we talk to when we are trip planning votes for WDW over DL. I felt like DL really had a hand up with Cars Land and I don't think WDW needs one. It seems like WDW is trying to compete with it's sister park and I really don't get that

I am also on the train with everyone about Cars in general. I kind of liked the first one, now I'm kind of over it. And it's everywhere! Sure, it will bring in the money, but what about something different for FL that people would be excited about? How about something from UP or Wall-e? Give WDW their own new shiny Pixar thing, but give DL it's own unique thunder too!


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Old 02-09-2013, 09:47 PM   #42
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how about for a small side doing a dumbo style - planes ride???
I feel that park needs more for the little ones (my boys are teens but they like Dumbo too)
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Old 02-09-2013, 11:09 PM   #43
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how about for a small side doing a dumbo style - planes ride???
I feel that park needs more for the little ones (my boys are teens but they like Dumbo too)
it needs more for the "little ones" and the "big ones"

they haven't done too much for 10 years. toy story mania is great...but its a simplistic kinda ride with a really long line (soarin' is in that category as well)...

they kinda botched the whole "real production studio" concept when they built it...and just when they started to make some real move to upgrade...animal kingdom opened to less than stellar returns and clouded the issue.

and recently - it seems like they've just kinda given up on both and just concentrate on the other two parks. which isn't necessarily bad...but studios will continue to decay if they don't beef it up and animal kingdom is high overhead and in need of serious help...large scale.
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