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Old 01-01-2013, 12:02 PM   #1
cewait
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Marathon Weekend Weather

I was not going to do this again this year and since ‘L’accuweather started with the longer period of forecasts it seemed really pointless. Well, coming from a farming community as a kiddo, I am still tuned into the weather more than many folks. We are now approaching the 10 day forecast period where models tend to have relevancy… not necessarily accuracy, but start to let you see the gross trends.

So, the norms for the race weekend are a low of 49F and high of 70F. This produces an average temp for race day of 59F. The current 10 outlook is as follow:

NWS
7-Day forecast

Weather
5k – 54F – No Forecast
Half – No forecast
Full – No Forecast

Wunderground
5k – 59F – Hi 72F
Half – 59F Fog – No forecast
Full – No Forecast

Accuweather
5k – 59F – Hi 75F – Rain >50%
Half – 57F – Hi 79F – Showers >50%
Full – 57F – Hi 79F


Note, even if we get rain, it ‘generally’ is not a real drencher. Accumulations are less than a half-inch and usually less than a tenth for an all day event. Obviously, there are exceptions but remember, this is the middle of the dry season.
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Old 01-01-2013, 04:52 PM   #2
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Please no lightening! I fear that greater than most anything else mother nature has to offer.


I saw on some weather related webpage something like this:

5k race day is raining at a high of 75 degrees.
half marathon day is raining at 79 degrees
Full marathon day is 79 mostly cloudy.

Two pairs of sneakers are in order here. In case one pair gets drenched.
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Old 01-01-2013, 05:44 PM   #3
cewait
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AGREE 100%

The only reason for the race to be called off is if there is lightning in the area. I definitely would hate to have the race cancelled.

Though, I guess a start delay could occur for most anything that is way off... heavy rain, lightning, winds.....
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Old 01-01-2013, 09:39 PM   #4
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I have no fear of the lightening itself, but really fear them calling the race because of it.

The forecast right now is okay I guess. 57 with light rain wouldn't be too bad. At least it's cooler than Disneyland. I just don't want 60s or heavy rain. But, I'm bringing the rain vest just in case. After 2010 I will never be unprepared again.
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Old 01-01-2013, 10:46 PM   #5
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I keep telling myself that I won't freak out about the heat yet, but I am not pleased. Silly FL, why can't you behave and realize it is winter? Here's hoping for a nice cold front to wonder our way this week and cool us off so that we don't have a bunch of overheated runners passing out all over the place. Should be fun no matter what and I bought a new tank top just for this reason!
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Old 01-01-2013, 10:57 PM   #6
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You know, the rain is going to feel great if it really is close to 80...

And frankly, I wouldn't know what to do if it wasn't raining or snowing. Literally every single one of our long runs this training period we have had to deal with one or the other...
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Old 01-02-2013, 05:47 AM   #7
cewait
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1/2 Update

The latest from the services this morning.
Remember, this is the dry season and without a change in temperature from a front, the chances of anything other than sprinkles is remote. I am not seeing where Accuweather is getting the energy source for the rain on Friday and Friday evening.

This will be one of the hotter marathons in Disney history at these forecasts. Prepare NOW. Start by thinking about your hydration actions taken earlier in the fall. Mid week next week, start hydrating and making sure that you are topping off the tank by sipping all day. Think of your hydration strategy and how warm mile 11-13 or 15-26 will be when the sun is out and beating on the pavement in front of you.

Now is not the time to not think of surviving a cool morning, and I would still have in my ‘take on trip’ stack a set of cool weather clothes.

NWS
7-Day forecast

Weather
5k – 60F – Hi 76F
Half – 56F – No forecast
Full – No Forecast

Wunderground
5k – 61F Fog – Hi 75F
Half – 61F Fog – Hi 73F
Full – 61F – No Forecast

Accuweather
5k – 59F – Hi 80F – Rain >50%
Half – 57F – Hi 77F
Full – 58F – Hi 77F


The norms for the race weekend are a low of 49F and high of 70F. This produces an average temp for race day of 59F.
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Old 01-02-2013, 06:40 AM   #8
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I did the half last year and the weather wasn't too hot at all..I think it was nice...if its really hot this year...

I am going to wear minmal clothing for the full and half...covered with warm clothing...wearing a hydration belt...start thinking of hydrating myself now...even though I don't feel like it.
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Old 01-02-2013, 07:04 AM   #9
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If the temps stay this warm, do you recommend bringing our own water given the year they ran out at a few stations? I run about an 10:30-11:30mm pace (depending on picture stops) and will start in D if that makes any difference. I rather not have to carry more than I need to but want to be smart about this .
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Old 01-02-2013, 07:05 AM   #10
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Sounds like it probably won't be needed, but here's what my local running store told me to do to dry out wet running shoes. It works pretty well.

Remove the insoles.
Stuff newspaper into the shoes for 1 hour.
Take that newspaper out and replace it with new newspaper. Leave it in for 2-3 hours.
Take that newspaper out and replace it with new newspaper. Leave it in overnight.

I know the resorts don't deliver newspapers anyone, but I think you can get them at the front desk...?


My runs lately have either been on the treadmill or in 20-degree weather with wind and snow...so hopefully I'm prepared for anything at this point.
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Old 01-02-2013, 07:19 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goofeygirl View Post
I did the half last year and the weather wasn't too hot at all..I think it was nice...if its really hot this year...

I am going to wear minmal clothing for the full and half...covered with warm clothing...wearing a hydration belt...start thinking of hydrating myself now...even though I don't feel like it.
Actaully, last year's half was 44F... I ran it with a short sleeved shirt and no throw down clothing... cool and a little uncomfortable until the gun. Once on the run, it was great.
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Last edited by cewait; 01-02-2013 at 07:28 AM.
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Old 01-02-2013, 07:27 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rocio View Post
If the temps stay this warm, do you recommend bringing our own water given the year they ran out at a few stations? I run about an 10:30-11:30mm pace (depending on picture stops) and will start in D if that makes any difference. I rather not have to carry more than I need to but want to be smart about this .
I carry a Gatorade or bottled water bottle with me for the staging area and the first 4-9 miles of the race. I do this because my hydration regimen is different that the aid station layout. In 2007, the race did have issues with heat (67F start) and water stations. I was running a sub 10mm pace and saw tables being folded in the mile 13 area. I ended up slowing way up due to other issues and ended up finishing with a 13:30 pace. We did not have any liquids in the 20 mile area.

I personally do not think that will happen again. The rD folks took a lot of heat from that and Disney rarely gets fooled twice on the same issue. However, if you feel the need to have the security of knowing you have water with you, I would pack your belt and bring it to Orlando. You can always not wear it or fill only a couple bottles for security. I know there are veterans of 07 who carry a supply regardless of the expected heat
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Old 01-02-2013, 07:29 AM   #13
cewait
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariel484 View Post
Sounds like it probably won't be needed, but here's what my local running store told me to do to dry out wet running shoes. It works pretty well.

Remove the insoles.
Stuff newspaper into the shoes for 1 hour.
Take that newspaper out and replace it with new newspaper. Leave it in for 2-3 hours.
Take that newspaper out and replace it with new newspaper. Leave it in overnight.

I know the resorts don't deliver newspapers anyone, but I think you can get them at the front desk...?


My runs lately have either been on the treadmill or in 20-degree weather with wind and snow...so hopefully I'm prepared for anything at this point.
I have 4 pairs of these... though not pink
http://www.amazon.com/Stuffitts-Orig.../dp/B007KL6M9A
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Old 01-02-2013, 08:34 AM   #14
buckeyecinderella
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So if I don't carry my own water, and Run
Disney runs out, can I buy a bottle of water from a vendor as I run through the theme parks, like AK, DHS, Epcot? Just wondering how close we'd be to the eateries and vendors along the route.

Thanks for starting the weather thread, Coach. I was hoping you would!
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Old 01-02-2013, 08:45 AM   #15
rocio
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cewait

I carry a Gatorade or bottled water bottle with me for the staging area and the first 4-9 miles of the race. I do this because my hydration regimen is different that the aid station layout. In 2007, the race did have issues with heat (67F start) and water stations. I was running a sub 10mm pace and saw tables being folded in the mile 13 area. I ended up slowing way up due to other issues and ended up finishing with a 13:30 pace. We did not have any liquids in the 20 mile area.

I personally do not think that will happen again. The rD folks took a lot of heat from that and Disney rarely gets fooled twice on the same issue. However, if you feel the need to have the security of knowing you have water with you, I would pack your belt and bring it to Orlando. You can always not wear it or fill only a couple bottles for security. I know there are veterans of 07 who carry a supply regardless of the expected heat
So when they ran out of water, it wasn't the entire course that was out, just a couple of the stops? I think I'll *gulp * trust the race organizers and hope for the best.
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