Valuing loaded and stripped contracts

[Deb & Bill]

Originally Posted by bighoo93

LOL

I suppose you offer someone who has banked the previous year's points into the current year (and you can use them) an additional $10 a point on their asking price?

[DougEMG]

Here's a thread from a while back about valuing contracts.


http://disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2916071


What interested me at the time was being able to compare one contract against another contract in order to determine which was the better deal and to determine how much I should offer and how to structure the offer (ie what to offer for $/point, closing & MF).

[bighoo93]

Originally Posted by Deb & Bill

I suppose you offer someone who has banked the previous year's points into the current year (and you can use them) an additional $10 a point on their asking price?

No. My approach is probably a little different than yours, so I wouldn't offer someone more than their asking price.

I am willing, however, to ask $100/point for my 250 point SSR contract, and I've already used the points for the current year. Based on your logical formula, you would offer me $97.50 or so per point. Is that correct?

Asking price - (asking price / # years left on contract) = 100 - (100/42) = 97.62

[Deb & Bill]

Originally Posted by bighoo93

No. My approach is probably a little different than yours, so I wouldn't offer someone more than their asking price.

I am willing, however, to ask $100/point for my 250 point SSR contract, and I've already used the points for the current year. Based on your logical formula, you would offer me $97.50 or so per point. Is that correct?

Asking price - (asking price / # years left on contract) = 100 - (100/42) = 97.62

Yes, if your asking price was logical. And it isn't for SSR. SSR has never sold for $100 a point. You left out the logic.

Also, if you would never offer more than the asking price, why do you ask so much less than the asking price? Don't you ever consider the asking price as logical to begin with?

[bighoo93]

Originally Posted by Deb & Bill

Yes, if your asking price was logical. And it isn't for SSR. SSR has never sold for $100 a point. You left out the logic.

Actually, the current base price for SSR from DVC is $110 per point. My ask would be a discount to that. Further, there are multiple resale SSR contracts for which the asking price is $100 on the market right now. There is plenty of logic to that asking price.

I was just trying to understand your formula. You didn't qualify anything about the asking price.

Also, if you would never offer more than the asking price, why do you ask so much less than the asking price? Don't you ever consider the asking price as logical to begin with?

That's easy. The asking price has absolutely nothing to do with the value of the contract to me. I would never offer more than the asking price (unless for some reason I anticipated a bidding war and wanted to preempt that). The seller is willing to sell for a certain price, why would I try to give him more?

But I would offer less if the seller listed the contract at more than I am willing to pay for it. If they decline my offer, nobody loses anything, we just can't come to agreement on the price and move on. But what they ask only sets an upper limit on my offer, nothing more.

I'm not trying to say another approach is wrong, I just like to understand how others try to value different contracts. Doug's posts on the matter are have been very interesting.

[Deb & Bill]

Originally Posted by bighoo93

Actually, the current base price for SSR from DVC is $110 per point. My ask would be a discount to that. Further, there are multiple resale SSR contracts for which the asking price is $100 on the market right now. There is plenty of logic to that asking price.

I was just trying to understand your formula. You didn't qualify anything about the asking price.
....

But I did qualify it originally. I said it was logic. Here's where my history comes from. The last contract we bought was direct from Disney in 2002 for BCV pre-opening for $75 a point. We did sell that contract for about $94 a point in about 2006 because we wanted to divest ourselves of some of our DVC contracts - too money much going to Disney each month. And that asking price was a lot less than what Disney was asking at the time and was in line with what was being asked for a resale.

So if the logic is there to ask $100 a point for SSR, then your offer of $97.62 would be logical to offer if the current year points were already gone for the year. I just don't look at resale site and I don't even know what Disney is asking these days.