How important is the 11 month window?

[drusba]

Based on tracking the seven month window, you should be aware of the following:

1. If you want AKV concierge, AKV value, BWV GVs, BWV standard or boardwalk view, or BLT standard view, you should own at the particular resort so you can reserve 11 months out since those things can often be unavailable at 7 months out any time of year, particularly if you want more than 2 or 3 consecutive days. That also is true to some extent for BCV although it tends to be open many times of year.

2. In addition to the above, it can often (but not always) be difficult to get anything at a near park resort (BWV, BCV, BLT or VWL) at seven months out for more than 2 or 3 consecutive nights at any time between the last few days of Sep (depending on which day Food & Wine starts) and the Monday after Marathon weekend in Jan. That is DVC's highest demand quarter. Moreover, the first, second and last week of December can be near impossible to get any of those at 7 months out even for two consecutive nights. There are two "pockets" during that time when it can be much easier to get rooms at those four resorts, the Tuesday to Tuesday before Thanksgiving, and the third week of Dec. If Marathon weekend is late there can also be a pocket between about Jan 4 and the Thurs before Marathon weekend.

3. Between the Tuesday night after Marathon weekend in Jan and just before the end of Sep, you can usually get VWL, BLT theme park and lake view, and BWV pool/garden view at 7 months out and that includes holiday time such as Easter and July 4. BCV is also open many times during that nine month period. The easiest times for anything at 7 months out is last two weeks of Aug to just before end of Sep (in fact many things stay open well beyond the 7 month window then), the first two weeks of Feb, last several days of Feb through first week of March, last week of April through third week of May.

4. OKW studios through 2BRs are open at 7 months all year long except possibly the first week of Dec and some other busy times if you want rooms near Hospitality House (a booking category). OKW GVs in Hospitality House area are often gone throughout the year at 7 months, and sometimes even other GVs. AKV standard and savanna views are also open year round at 7 months except possibly the first week of Dec. AKV GVs are usually open at 7 months except possibly for those key Dec weeks and Jambo GVs will disappear before Kidani GVs do.

5. SSR is always open year round for everything other than treehouses at 7 months out and treehouses are usually but not always open (that is a pattern that represents a change from prior pattern because there was major point reallocation involving treehouses for reservations starting in 2013 which lowered the demand for treehouses).

6. Studios usually fill before 2BRs which usually fill before 1BRs and you can sometimes find 1BRs at 7 months out even during the busy times when rooms are otherwise not available. The exception is BLT theme park view; for some reason for that category of rooms 1BRs usually disappear before studios do.

[snarlingcoyote]

Drusba- thanks for this! DH and I had already decided to buy SSR and "spin the wheel" on reservations, so to speak, so long as we get to hop around to them all at one point or another, but this makes me feel even better about our choice.

Although, of course, we're falling for SSR! ( it really fits our WDW vacation style to a tee- have a car, like eating and shopping at DTD, like sprawling properties. . .)

[Kwaschitz]

Wow- thanks drusba! The specificity really helps

I'm also trying to really look and see if we could handle closer to the 11 month window.

It had honestly not occurred to me that DVC would have high demand times pretty much the opposite of general park demand. It makes sense, but the points charts confused me on that because they seem to be in line with general park crowd trends more than what I'm hearing are DVC use trends.

[Disneymagicforme]

Drusba, you are awesome!

[zavandor]

DVC high demand time depends somehow on points charts. Many people look to stretch their point as much as they can so the first two weeks of Dec are a bargain due to good weather, holidays decorations and low points.

Why don't they increase the points for the first two weeks of December and lower the last two of August (a very low demand time for DVC)?

[chalee94]

Originally Posted by zavandor

Why don't they increase the points for the first two weeks of December and lower the last two of August (a very low demand time for DVC)?

they might do that eventually. point charts are definitely subject to change (although it is true that total pts for the year for each entire resort cannot change.)

[disneynutz]

It's important to note that all of the availability info is a best guess and it's not guaranteed. At one time there wasn't a F&W or F&G or Star Wars weekend, or any marathons. All of this changed after some people bought.

If you truly don't care where you stay or when, then buy the least expensive resort. If you plan to buy cheap and expect to stay somewhere else you may be disappointed.

Bill

[crisi]

Originally Posted by zavandor

DVC high demand time depends somehow on points charts. Many people look to stretch their point as much as they can so the first two weeks of Dec are a bargain due to good weather, holidays decorations and low points.

Why don't they increase the points for the first two weeks of December and lower the last two of August (a very low demand time for DVC)?

Dvcers seem to have more flexible schedules as well. Fewer of us are stuck to school schedules since there are older and child free dvcers. A lot of new owners have young children.

So while Disney has peak times that follow school schedules because most Disney guests have school age children, adults who like Disney enough to buy DVC only have school aged children for part of their ownership.

[drusba]

Originally Posted by zavandor

DVC high demand time depends somehow on points charts. Many people look to stretch their point as much as they can so the first two weeks of Dec are a bargain due to good weather, holidays decorations and low points.

Why don't they increase the points for the first two weeks of December and lower the last two of August (a very low demand time for DVC)?

The constant fear of those who usually go the first two weeks of December is that DVD will do an increase for Dec 1-14 while lowering points other weeks. Some are already concerned that a change might occur this year because we do not already have the 2014 point charts. When DVD has not made changes, it has usually released the charts in November; when it has made changes, it has held them back until almost mid-Jan just before you need them to make reservations for the next Jan.

Flipping late Aug time with that Dec time at first glance sounds logical but has complicating issues that make it impossible to do without changing a lot of other times and doing it over a period of two years. First, that late August time is 16 nights while the Dec time is 14 and thus you cannot make an even switch where the Aug nights in total will decrease no more than the Dec nights increase. Second, you have rule that DVD cannot change any given night more than 20% per year. For many nights such as for 1BRs at most DVD resorts, the change needed is more than 20% per night to make that switch and thus it could only be done over a period of two years of partial changes that would effect far more nights than just those two periods, e.g., if Dec 1-14 stays in the same season for a year and points go up a little so they can make the switch with Aug the next year, DVD would also have to raise Jan and Sept points; likewise a temporary one year decrease in Aug points while it remains in same season would require decreasing some Feb, June and all of May time. Moreover, if you want to switch with something other than those Aug dates, there are no real candidates. There is not enough in the choice season to do a flip because the specified Oct and Nov time in that season has itself increased in demand over the years thus precluding any of it from being a good candidate to move down in points to adventure season.

[Dean]

Originally Posted by drusba

The constant fear of those who usually go the first two weeks of December is that DVD will do an increase for Dec 1-14 while lowering points other weeks.

I'm not sure about this year but I truly expect them to increase the early Dec option. Ultimately I suspect they'll do away with Adventure and just have the 4 categories with early Dec being Dream time. They'll have to lower other times slightly but it won't be enough to make a big difference.