How many people buy resale?

[BestDadEver]

]

Originally Posted by ELMC

I Instead what it accomplished is lowering the prices of resale contracts, making them more attractive to a subset of the buying population. Over time, DVD is sure to figure out what restrictions would push a critical mass of buyers from resale towards direct, so I would anticipate another round of restrictions at least.

That is very an interesting point. I would agree with . Its not much a deturent to by resale. Although it was for me .

I would also agree that they can't legally do it to previous resale owners . Much like the recent changes only affect future contacts .

The other thing I have seen mentioned here , that makes sence is that disney realy doesn't want to devalue the resale product . It does have value to them , even if not directly .
Example would be you wouldent buy a used car for 30k if out was only worth $10 a year later .

[disneynutz]

Originally Posted by BestDadEver

]



That is very an interesting point. I would agree with . Its not much a deturent to by resale. Although it was for me .

I would also agree that they can't legally do it to previous resale owners . Much like the recent changes only affect future contacts .

The other thing I have seen mentioned here , that makes sence is that disney realy doesn't want to devalue the resale product . It does have value to them , even if not directly .
Example would be you wouldent buy a used car for 30k if out was only worth $10 a year later .

You can't use the DIS or the internet as a gage of what most buyers do. The majority of Direct buyers don't visit the DIS or know about resale and if they do, Disney reminds them of the direct benefits as if someone else set them up.

Legally they can pretty much do what they want, when we signed the contract, we gave them that right. Disney weighs the PR angle against the sales benefit angle when they make these types of changes.

Disney doesn't talk about resale to buyers so I don't think that they care about what happens to resale prices other than if they decide to sell older resorts when new inventory runs low. Then they want to buy low through ROFR and sell high.

Bill

[BestDadEver]

My point was that disneys product is devalued if the resale goes down . No business wants their product to loose value .

Ferrari does this to an extream . They make you sign something saying you wont sell the car for x amount of time, also you can't but certine models without owning other . All that protects the value of there product .

Like Elcm said if they hammered resale perks the value would drop dramaticly . Then potential buyers would be detered to buy a product for thousands of dollers that will be worth pennies when they need/want to sell it.

The main reason I wouldn't buy a hyundai . Although I think the cars are much better quality they still loose more then half there value in a year. And a honda will only be half as much depreciation in the same time .

[Dean]

Originally Posted by BestDadEver

Most people buy direct . Most people that post here say to but resale . But even most of them have some direct points .

There was a poll done here , and I was shocked to see most were direct points people had . I have no intrest to look for the threads but there was three threads one for how many resle points you bought , one for direct , and one for both . It was a landslide for direct points.

I myself see value in the direct points so that is what I bought and will add with . Most active posters are for resale, probably cause any time some says anything positive about direct points they get flamed , and dont come back . I myself try not to come on this forum for that reason sometimes.

What most people do is irrelevant for a number of reasons. First, most who bought retail either did so without appropriate knowledge of the resale options and/or when the price difference wasn't make or break. Until the last couple of years or so, the price difference was generally in the 15-20% difference for most situations. I don't believe you've been flamed though I would take you to task on your views regarding retail vs retail because I find them significantly inaccurate and inappropriate for most people's situation. We're about to see a situation where buying retail may be reasonable for a subset of people (current and prospective members) because the GF will go on sale fairly soon. There will be those that have to own there and make the judgement that a higher price is worth the benefit. For those that will use those points for GF most of the time, that very well may be a reasonable validation for buying retail.

MOST timeshares are bought retail even for those you can buy for free on ebay or elsewhere. I've had friends and acquaintances buy retail for such timeshares even though I gave them the info so they were aware of the limitations and price differences. The salespeople are often pretty slick.

Originally Posted by BestDadEver

]



That is very an interesting point. I would agree with . Its not much a deturent to by resale. Although it was for me .

I would also agree that they can't legally do it to previous resale owners . Much like the recent changes only affect future contacts .

The other thing I have seen mentioned here , that makes sence is that disney realy doesn't want to devalue the resale product . It does have value to them , even if not directly .
Example would be you wouldent buy a used car for 30k if out was only worth $10 a year later .

Legally they could make such changes retroactively though it's unusual for timeshares to do so. I don't think DVC cares much about devaluing current owners holdings as the affect of future sales will be minimal to negligible. What it might do is drive them to further differentiation of the retail vs resale situation but given there are NO good reasons to buy retail over resale related to those differentiations, it really won't matter to the informed buyer. It might also cause them to be more aggressive in sales, I think we've seen some movement in that direction already over the past couple of years.

[xbrentx]

Remember, Disney has only devalued resales. Direct prices are actually going up this December.

As a business, this is smart, because they have ROFR. Now they can build waiting lists for sold out resorts, and pickup resales for 50% of the cost, and instantly resell them and make a huge profit. No overhead with that kind of profit margin is crazy to think about. Disney did not do it to bring incentive to direct sales, they purposely wanted to devalue resales so they can make bank of ROFR contracts.

If they wanted to bring real incentives to buy direct, they would make changes that would significantly impact resales. Like discounts on annual passes for the life of the contract on direct sales. Imagine saving an extra 10%-20% on annual passes a year, per person, for 40 years. Those types of long term savings would drive people to buy direct.

Buying direct is currently insanity from a cost/value perspective. SSR is $110 a point direct. I'm currently waiting for Disney's ROFR process on a 240 point SSR that I got for $57 a point. That's basically 50% of the cost. My family will not go on a cruise, and I already cruise with NCL. Adventures by Disney cost upwards of 800 points a person, so you would need a contract of 400-600 points a year to consider those anyway.

[Cruznmore]

Originally Posted by xbrentx

Remember, Disney has only devalued resales. Direct prices are actually going up this December.

As a business, this is smart, because they have ROFR. Now they can build waiting lists for sold out resorts, and pickup resales for 50% of the cost, and instantly resell them and make a huge profit. No overhead with that kind of profit margin is crazy to think about. Disney did not do it to bring incentive to direct sales, they purposely wanted to devalue resales so they can make bank of ROFR contracts.

I disagree that the ROFR devalues the resale product. I think it actually keeps the resale values up. As a buyer, if you have looked at any of the historical data available here and elsewhere, you know if you go too low, Disney will snag it and you have wasted your time and effort.

As seller (again assuming you are at least informed about the value, which I'm assuming the Reseller agencies will help inform), you know the same. This keeps the offers in a narrow band that fluctuates some, but has a floor.

Many other timeshares you can pick up basically for closing costs and MF. That is because they don't have an active ROFR process. Disney helps keep value in the points because they do exercise the ROFR, or at least that the threat is there.

I think OKW is one to watch to see what happens. With Disney actively ROFRing deals, I would think that would drive prices and offers up. Any guesses as to which resort will be next on their list?

[DougEMG]

Originally Posted by Cruznmore

I disagree that the ROFR devalues the resale product. I think it actually keeps the resale values up. As a buyer, if you have looked at any of the historical data available here and elsewhere, you know if you go too low, Disney will snag it and you have wasted your time and effort.

As seller (again assuming you are at least informed about the value, which I'm assuming the Reseller agencies will help inform), you know the same. This keeps the offers in a narrow band that fluctuates some, but has a floor.

Many other timeshares you can pick up basically for closing costs and MF. That is because they don't have an active ROFR process. Disney helps keep value in the points because they do exercise the ROFR, or at least that the threat is there.

I think OKW is one to watch to see what happens. With Disney actively ROFRing deals, I would think that would drive prices and offers up. Any guesses as to which resort will be next on their list?

I'm not sure that ROFR has anything to do with keeping prices up. If you look at the numbers here http://disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2529191&page=14 on post 199, you'll see that other than OKW and BCV, there was practically no ROFR on any of the other resorts.

[Cruznmore]

Originally Posted by DougEMG

you'll see that other than OKW and BCV, there was practically no ROFR on any of the other resorts.

True, but the threat of ROFR eliminates 'crazy eddie' deals. I'm sure if any of the resorts had a deal sub-$40 they would grab it. There definitely won't be any $1 deals like you find for other timeshares on Ebay.

[xbrentx]

I agree with you, I may have explained myself poorly. The ROFR process does also help Disney keep value in their product. If it wasn't for the ROFR then the prices would be rock bottom.

My point was that Disney has created a difference between direct and resale, by removing some benefits if you choose to buy resale. This creates a small decrease in value for the resale market. If they were the same product then the resale prices would be very close to direct prices. Disney simply wanted to create room for profit by executing their ROFR. Also, my point was that the lost benefits were not implemented to convince people to buy direct, but a business decision to devalue resales, creating that room for profit with ROFR.

[ELMC]

Originally Posted by xbrentx

I agree with you, I may have explained myself poorly. The ROFR process does also help Disney keep value in their product. If it wasn't for the ROFR then the prices would be rock bottom.

My point was that Disney has created a difference between direct and resale, by removing some benefits if you choose to buy resale. This creates a small decrease in value for the resale market. If they were the same product then the resale prices would be very close to direct prices. Disney simply wanted to create room for profit by executing their ROFR. Also, my point was that the lost benefits were not implemented to convince people to buy direct, but a business decision to devalue resales, creating that room for profit with ROFR.

I think that your assertion that DVD implemented restrictions on resale in order to capitalize on ROFR contracts as a profit center is sheer speculation and not supported by the facts. If this were the case, then ROFR activity across all resorts would be much higher. The fact of the matter is that the majority of contracts DO pass ROFR. DVD continues to focus on selling the currently marketed resorts. That is their profit center and that is what "guides" push prospective buyers towards.

The direct market and the resale market function relatively independent of each other. The direct market is based on DVD's pricing schedule and their astronomical built in price increases. The resale market functions on the laws of supply and demand. This would explain why BLT prices have been dropping recently despite significant increases in direct prices.

[Aladdin72]

Following this thread, thought I would add 2 cents worth.

My wife and I just purchased Direct at SSR for 175 pts with a March UY yesterday. That said, we looked at several resale locations and the financing options as well for the purchase. The incredible thing was, because we bought and dictated our purchase location and use year we received our current year's(2012) points (and we have 2 weeks to decide to bank or use) and will receive our upcoming year's points obviously. We have a first payment due in Feb, and put down 15% to cover the 7 weeks of dues. Our monthly payment (10yr financing, but our finances will allow us to pay it off in Aug 2013), include the annual dues over 12 months. With us banking the points we essentially received 350 pts for March 2013 use, paid 55/pt, with the full benefits entitled to direct buy, AP pass and all....

This was by far cheaper than the currently listed prices of most regales at SSR for 63+ /pt, with no ROFR issues or anything.

I have to say I am extremely happy with this and will purchase our next round in Nov 2013 at OKW for 200 Pts and same UY. There was no downside to this purchase, you just have to be smart on the time to buy, make your intents known for what you want in terms of pts and UY and they (Disney) will accommodate you.

[ThumpersWorld]

It certainly is difficult to quantify the direct impact of Disney's ROFR policy on the market for resales but as an owner there is something very reassuring knowing that there are some very deep pockets propping up the dvc market.

Maybe not a perfect analogy but one could look back to the financial market panic of 2008 to see the calming effect that a very large buyer of last resort can have on sentiment. Until the govt gave itself the powers to intervene decisively there seemed to be no bottom in sight.

Leads me to believe that the mouse's bazooka and its willingness to use it (even if only occassionally) has got to be worth something.

[Dean]

Originally Posted by xbrentx

Remember, Disney has only devalued resales. Direct prices are actually going up this December.

As a business, this is smart, because they have ROFR. Now they can build waiting lists for sold out resorts, and pickup resales for 50% of the cost, and instantly resell them and make a huge profit. No overhead with that kind of profit margin is crazy to think about. Disney did not do it to bring incentive to direct sales, they purposely wanted to devalue resales so they can make bank of ROFR contracts.

If they wanted to bring real incentives to buy direct, they would make changes that would significantly impact resales. Like discounts on annual passes for the life of the contract on direct sales. Imagine saving an extra 10%-20% on annual passes a year, per person, for 40 years. Those types of long term savings would drive people to buy direct.

Buying direct is currently insanity from a cost/value perspective. SSR is $110 a point direct. I'm currently waiting for Disney's ROFR process on a 240 point SSR that I got for $57 a point. That's basically 50% of the cost. My family will not go on a cruise, and I already cruise with NCL. Adventures by Disney cost upwards of 800 points a person, so you would need a contract of 400-600 points a year to consider those anyway.

They've devalued all resales including those that buy retail, once you buy no matter who from, it's worth the 50%. The reality is that they won't actually make any real money at 50% because they're competing with their own retail products and those retail products don't cost them much or any more than that anyway. ROFR isn't about making money on resales (sure they make some but not much) but more about control of the market and driving sales to retail. It worked fairly well when resale prices were 80% or so but not at around 50% which is likely the reason for the differentiation between resale and retail buyers.

Originally Posted by Cruznmore

True, but the threat of ROFR eliminates 'crazy eddie' deals. I'm sure if any of the resorts had a deal sub-$40 they would grab it. There definitely won't be any $1 deals like you find for other timeshares on Ebay.

To a small degree. There have been times where the ROFR price played prominently in the resale prices but currently I don't think that's the case and hasn't been for a long time. Sure there are isolated issues where there might be some affects but overall it's not really a player in prices right now. Those fire sales are a lot less likely now than even 5-10 years ago due to the internet.

[Lizard Valley]

Originally Posted by Aladdin72

Following this thread, thought I would add 2 cents worth.

My wife and I just purchased Direct at SSR for 175 pts with a March UY yesterday.

With us banking the points we essentially received 350 pts for March 2013 use, paid 55/pt, with the full benefits entitled to direct buy, AP pass and all....

This was by far cheaper than the currently listed prices of most regales at SSR for 63+ /pt, with no ROFR issues or anything.

I hate to tell you this, but you didn't do the math right. Or you misunderstood. You only have 350 points for 2013, all of the other years only have 175 points.

You can't divide your total purchase price by 350 pts to get a per point price. At best, you can subtract the value of the 2012 mf's that you didn't have to pay (about 5/6ths of the total 2012 mf's) from the purchase price, then divide by 175 (not 350).

So:
19,250-690=$18,560/175=$106/pt

You paid 106$/pt, not 55$/pt.

Sorry...

[JaimeA]

Originally Posted by Lizard Valley

I hate to tell you this, but you didn't do the math right. Or you misunderstood. You only have 350 points for 2013, all of the other years only have 175 points.

You can't divide your total purchase price by 350 pts to get a per point price. At best, you can subtract the value of the 2012 mf's that you didn't have to pay (about 5/6ths of the total 2012 mf's) from the purchase price, then divide by 175 (not 350).

So:
19,250-690=$18,560/175=$106/pt

You paid 106$/pt, not 55$/pt.

Sorry...

I saw that thread before I thought they bought resale, but now I see the word direct, ouch!

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