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Old 08-30-2012, 12:46 PM   #76
lockedoutlogic
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What tkraz is commenting on is "park cannibalization"...when one park eats its own young.

Disney saw significant days added to trips when they built EPCOT...again with MGM...and further still as they added resorts, downtown, wide world, boardwalk, typhoon and blizzard, etc.

But then with AK they hit the breaking point...people starting shifting days from one park to the next instead of ADDING days...and that ruins the incentive for capital investment.

Why build more when it won't make more...it will actually cost you more to run it...And people spend roughly the same on average each day...whether that's in 5 spots or 10...

This is why the 5th gate is impossible...or as close to it as you can get statistically...

And the part about average vacation in the US is huge...it drives everything. We've been taught so...more work
Equals more money and happiness for EVERYBODY!

Only that's completely wrong...not
Even close.

But we do as the talking picture box tells us
To do...when common sense says otherwise.

Ever wonder why the British take 3 week stays in Florida while I have to plan for 6 months in advance for 7 days and spend half my time returning emails on my iPhone?

Because like with most things: the Europeans invented greed...the Americans have perfected
It
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Old 08-30-2012, 12:51 PM   #77
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Have read this thread and all the related points about extra vacation days, east coast vacationers, bottom dollar money, etc are all interesting and valid points.

But as a WDW veteran who has now been to Carsland (returned last week), I wanted to chime in just a few of my own feelings. Just my feelings, by the way.

Purely speaking from a selfish standpoint and putting aside the bottom line - We would love to see a Carsland in Orlando and here's why. Two reasons:

We have been to WDW many many times (myself as a kid, me and DH for honeymoon, with our son, etc). We just love it there. We feel lucky that we are able to figure out ways to visit often. It's our vacation place.

We've been to California twice - my sister lives in LA and both visits included a stay at DL as we are big Disney fans. I'm not going to debate whether DL or WDW is better. They are different and similar in many ways. For us, we love WDW and like DL. But we all LOVED carsland. It was amazing. My son was beside himself. He is a *huge* cars fan. I'm talking knows every character from both movies, including all of the international spies and lemons.

First REASON: I truly feel that the WDW visitors would appreciate Carsland so much. There really is a difference between most WDW visitors and their vacations and most DL visitors and their DL trips. I can't explain it (yes, locals vs. vacationers is part of it) but there's something else. Maybe it's the complete immersive feeling you get in WDW that you really don't get in DL, no matter how well they theme it. For me personally I love to escape on vacation and in DL I am always reminded that I'm at a park. Even staying at a Disney hotel, there are huge crowds of locals in DTD that you walk through to get to the hotel. From the monorail, you can actually see how one-dimensional Cadillac Range is at the back of Carsland, with buildings right behind it. In WDW everything feels so large and encompassing. In DL/DCA I very often feel crowded. (And yes, I'm quite familiar with Easter and New Years crowds in WDW).

Carsland itself was created in a way that if you wanted to, you could feel like you were in Radiator springs. Except I always felt that same feeling that, "right over there is anaheim stadium and a building." I never feel that in WDW. It's not really Disney's fault - it's mostly just a space issue.

So my general point is that I think many WDW fans also appreciate the immersive feeling of WDW. And thus, they would really enjoy a land that was built in such an immersive way. WDW nuts (er, fans) love the crazy attention to detail that defines Disney and Carsland was so detailed! I just think WDW fans would love it.

SECOND REASON: I don't know the figures on how much money Disney makes off the Cars franchise. I know that they make quite a bit just off my son . However, I can tell you that as the mother of one boy, no girls, we are happy to see the Fantasyland expansion but are not booking a trip just to see it. We DID book a trip just to see Carsland. But we will probably not go back, despite our love of Carsland. Traveling across the country is just not our cup of tea. It was more expensive. It took a whole day vs two. Time change was not easy. At this point in our vacationing, we don't really want to travel around to other cities for attractions - we want to stay put, no driving, be entertained, relax and that it. We did not find enough variety (especially in dining) to fill a week and it could definitely cost us more for less days at DL than it would for WDW. So for us, to return often to DL is just not going to happen. But Carsland would make us THAT much more excited to return to WDW - just a short 2 hr flight in the same time zone.

ONE MORE: And for those people who think that Disney has everyone staying on property for 7 days and buying tickets for that and have maxed out people's vacation time. Well, I have several friends who go there with the idea that they will go for just a few days (4-5), and then go to Sea World or Legoland, or just swim. Adding more content like Carsland to make DHS a two-day park (or full day, for some) would change at least a few of their plans I know (many of my friends also have young boys).

I am big fan of DHS as it is, so I'd prefer it if they just expanded vs. replacing something else. Well, I wouldn't mind if they actually had animators there again, or if they brought the monsters' inc ride in, or re-opened a sound effects stage. The MI ride at DCA is a little cheesey (typical dark ride) but next to Carsland, it was my DS's favorite.
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Old 08-30-2012, 12:57 PM   #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sweettears

While the 7 day cap rule may apply, not everyone stays that long. Making AK and HS full day parks may induce folks to stay an extra day.

Moving off-site vistors to on-site defines revenue growth to me. Don't confuse attendance number with actual revenue. Disney could care less about attendance numbers if it doesn't translate to revenue growth.
Once again you have a sound idea but it defies the counter intuitive logic of WDW...

7 days is a "standard" Disney trip...and it has been locked there for almost 20 years.

You contention that you could move the 4 or 5 dayers to 7 omits to key factors:
1. There's already a reason that they Don't go 7
2. That number is relatively small and doesn't hold much "tap" potential

The answer to number 1 is MONEY...and it answers number 2 and any of 100 other questions I could come up with.

The 4 days traveler is doing so usually due to limiting costs...and that not where Disney's interests lie.

You could say that if they add more great stuff...then people might be inclined to save/ invest more...but they are not who Disney wants the bucks from...

They want the bucks from those who don't care how much it costs, flood the giftshops, and gobble up overpriced food and drinks...
That's the target
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Old 08-30-2012, 12:57 PM   #79
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Originally Posted by Sweettears View Post
I'm not sure where you come up with the idea that WDW is not a growth market or has growth potential. Adding AoA, new DVC at GF, discussion of more DVC at W seem to counter that arguement. I doubt that the whole FLE is being done to better serve existing visitors. There are a large group of people that call DHS a 1/2 day visit or skip it entirely. Adding a popular E ticket to the park seems to make sense.
Rather than retype the same responses...I'd point you to tjkraz and lockedouts posts.

They're saying pretty much verbatim what I would say to you.

Growth means new butts in the resort...in significant number. Not the same butts in different parks/rooms.

The only thing I would add is that the 1/2 day parks actually work to Disney's benefit, to some extent. They steer you to other profit centers (like DTD, like some of the nicer restaurants at the resorts, and even the water parks). That's not "bad" for Disney.
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Old 08-30-2012, 01:03 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by Sweettears View Post
While the 7 day cap rule may apply, not everyone stays that long. Making AK and HS full day parks may induce folks to stay an extra day.

Moving off-site vistors to on-site defines revenue growth to me. Don't confuse attendance number with actual revenue. Disney could care less about attendance numbers if it doesn't translate to revenue growth.
Except..that 7 days is pretty much the average LOS. Some are less, some are more. But the average hasn't moved, even when Disney expected it to. They built a whole park expecting it to budge...it didn't. Why invest 750 million in an already built park in hopes it will do what you've already seen it NOT do? Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

It's revenue growth for the hotels.

It's a net zero for the theme parks...those folks were likely in the parks already,they were just laying their heads elsewhere.

Revenue growth, FYI, doesn't define a growth market, either. You can grow revenue in a variety of ways and not actually grow your market.
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Old 08-30-2012, 01:23 PM   #81
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Originally Posted by Figment1990 View Post
Have read this thread and all the related points about extra vacation days, east coast vacationers, bottom dollar money, etc are all interesting and valid points.

But as a WDW veteran who has now been to Carsland (returned last week), I wanted to chime in just a few of my own feelings. Just my feelings, by the way.

Purely speaking from a selfish standpoint and putting aside the bottom line - We would love to see a Carsland in Orlando and here's why. Two reasons:

We have been to WDW many many times (myself as a kid, me and DH for honeymoon, with our son, etc). We just love it there. We feel lucky that we are able to figure out ways to visit often. It's our vacation place.

We've been to California twice - my sister lives in LA and both visits included a stay at DL as we are big Disney fans. I'm not going to debate whether DL or WDW is better. They are different and similar in many ways. For us, we love WDW and like DL. But we all LOVED carsland. It was amazing. My son was beside himself. He is a *huge* cars fan. I'm talking knows every character from both movies, including all of the international spies and lemons.

First REASON: I truly feel that the WDW visitors would appreciate Carsland so much. There really is a difference between most WDW visitors and their vacations and most DL visitors and their DL trips. I can't explain it (yes, locals vs. vacationers is part of it) but there's something else. Maybe it's the complete immersive feeling you get in WDW that you really don't get in DL, no matter how well they theme it. For me personally I love to escape on vacation and in DL I am always reminded that I'm at a park. Even staying at a Disney hotel, there are huge crowds of locals in DTD that you walk through to get to the hotel. From the monorail, you can actually see how one-dimensional Cadillac Range is at the back of Carsland, with buildings right behind it. In WDW everything feels so large and encompassing. In DL/DCA I very often feel crowded. (And yes, I'm quite familiar with Easter and New Years crowds in WDW).

Carsland itself was created in a way that if you wanted to, you could feel like you were in Radiator springs. Except I always felt that same feeling that, "right over there is anaheim stadium and a building." I never feel that in WDW. It's not really Disney's fault - it's mostly just a space issue.

So my general point is that I think many WDW fans also appreciate the immersive feeling of WDW. And thus, they would really enjoy a land that was built in such an immersive way. WDW nuts (er, fans) love the crazy attention to detail that defines Disney and Carsland was so detailed! I just think WDW fans would love it.

SECOND REASON: I don't know the figures on how much money Disney makes off the Cars franchise. I know that they make quite a bit just off my son . However, I can tell you that as the mother of one boy, no girls, we are happy to see the Fantasyland expansion but are not booking a trip just to see it. We DID book a trip just to see Carsland. But we will probably not go back, despite our love of Carsland. Traveling across the country is just not our cup of tea. It was more expensive. It took a whole day vs two. Time change was not easy. At this point in our vacationing, we don't really want to travel around to other cities for attractions - we want to stay put, no driving, be entertained, relax and that it. We did not find enough variety (especially in dining) to fill a week and it could definitely cost us more for less days at DL than it would for WDW. So for us, to return often to DL is just not going to happen. But Carsland would make us THAT much more excited to return to WDW - just a short 2 hr flight in the same time zone.

ONE MORE: And for those people who think that Disney has everyone staying on property for 7 days and buying tickets for that and have maxed out people's vacation time. Well, I have several friends who go there with the idea that they will go for just a few days (4-5), and then go to Sea World or Legoland, or just swim. Adding more content like Carsland to make DHS a two-day park (or full day, for some) would change at least a few of their plans I know (many of my friends also have young boys).

I am big fan of DHS as it is, so I'd prefer it if they just expanded vs. replacing something else. Well, I wouldn't mind if they actually had animators there again, or if they brought the monsters' inc ride in, or re-opened a sound effects stage. The MI ride at DCA is a little cheesey (typical dark ride) but next to Carsland, it was my DS's favorite.
FIRST REASON: I get it. It's cool, and I'm sure there are TONS of WDW guests who would enjoy and appreciate it. I 100% understand why people WANT Disney to clone it at DHS. I, myself, would love to see it there.

But that's not enough of a reason for Disney to actually build it.

SECOND REASON: Rather than address reason 2, I'm going to point you to your own statement:

Quote:
We DID book a trip just to see Carsland.
ONE MORE: Anecdotes are nice, but they really don't paint a great picture. Individuals do lots of crazy, unpredictable, wacky things...let chaos theory abound. BUT, as a homogenized group...all that crazy, unpredictable, wackiness disappears.

And that's what Disney looks at. What is the herd doing. And, from all accounts, and by every bit of info we have (which, admittedly, isn't complete), by every bit of historical evidence we have....they're doing pretty much what lockedoutlogic and tjkraz have laid out in their previous posts.
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Old 08-30-2012, 01:27 PM   #82
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Originally Posted by lockedoutlogic View Post

They want the bucks from those who don't care how much it costs, flood the giftshops, and gobble up overpriced food and drinks...
That's the target
Then they would love to have WDWers at Carsland - you should SEE how much merch and cozy-cone-contained food they are selling in CL.

In a way, that's partially what I was saying about my "WDWers would love Carsland" feeling. Sometimes I think when we go to WDW, all of our restraint flies out the window. Somehow this absurdly amazing land would be a great fit since to so many WDWers, Disney is just "unbelieveably amazing!" (jaw dropped, etc).
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Old 08-30-2012, 01:34 PM   #83
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Then they would love to have WDWers at Carsland - you should SEE how much merch and cozy-cone-contained food they are selling in CL.

In a way, that's partially what I was saying about my "WDWers would love Carsland" feeling. Sometimes I think when we go to WDW, all of our restraint flies out the window. Somehow this absurdly amazing land would be a great fit since to so many WDWers, Disney is just "unbelieveably amazing!" (jaw dropped, etc).
Which is actually what Disney is trying to do.

Because that lack of restraint isn't specific to Disney. You see it at many tourist-centric destinations, amongst vacationers. You see it on cruise ships and at their ports of call. You see it in the touristy sections of the Caribbean/Bahamas. You see it in Cabo, in parts of Rio.....all over. Not specific to WDW.

Disney is trying to turn DLR into THAT kind of place. Right now, it's much more local focused, with near a million AP's. Those types of guest...closer to home, more grounded in day to day life, tend to show a lot more fiscal restraint.

They want more "WDW-type" guests going through the turnstiles at DLR.

I always turn to the bottle of water example. At home, a $5 bottle of water sits on your local grocery stores shelf gathering dust. At your local theme park, it might move a bit faster, but I'd bet they're still not selling all that many. At vacation destinations like WDW? They'd sell like hot cakes. And you would hear "Ah, don't worry about it honey..WE'RE ON VACATION" more times than you could count.
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Old 08-30-2012, 01:36 PM   #84
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Which is actually what Disney is trying to do.

Because that lack of restraint isn't specific to Disney. You see it at many tourist-centric destinations, amongst vacationers. You see it on cruise ships and at their ports of call. You see it in the touristy sections of the Caribbean/Bahamas. You see it in Cabo, in parts of Rio.....all over. Not specific to WDW.

Disney is trying to turn DLR into THAT kind of place. Right now, it's much more local focused, with near a million AP's. Those types of guest...closer to home, more grounded in day to day life, tend to show a lot more fiscal restraint.

They want more "WDW-type" guests going through the turnstiles at DLR.

I always turn to the bottle of water example. At home, a $5 bottle of water sits on your local grocery stores shelf gathering dust. At your local theme park, it might move a bit faster, but I'd bet they're still not selling all that many. At vacation destinations like WDW? They'd sell like hot cakes. And you would hear "Ah, don't worry about it honey..WE'RE ON VACATION" more times than you could count.
Well, honestly, they are probably making MORE money off locals at the Mad T Party or whatever it's called in the Hollywood part of DCA. At least, if my 20-something year old sister is any evidence!
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Old 08-30-2012, 01:37 PM   #85
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Which is actually what Disney is trying to do.

Because that lack of restraint isn't specific to Disney. You see it at many tourist-centric destinations, amongst vacationers. You see it on cruise ships and at their ports of call. You see it in the touristy sections of the Caribbean/Bahamas. You see it in Cabo, in parts of Rio.....all over. Not specific to WDW.

Disney is trying to turn DLR into THAT kind of place. Right now, it's much more local focused, with near a million AP's. Those types of guest...closer to home, more grounded in day to day life, tend to show a lot more fiscal restraint.

They want more "WDW-type" guests going through the turnstiles at DLR.
I always turn to the bottle of water example. At home, a $5 bottle of water sits on your local grocery stores shelf gathering dust. At your local theme park, it might move a bit faster, but I'd bet they're still not selling all that many. At vacation destinations like WDW? They'd sell like hot cakes. And you would hear "Ah, don't worry about it honey..WE'RE ON VACATION" more times than you could count.
So how do you reconcile this with DLR limiting the tickets to 5 days?
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Old 08-30-2012, 01:41 PM   #86
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I keep reading that more attractions and/or more parks is something WDW wont do because it doesnt extend the average stay of a vacation.

I think one thing you guys are missing when you state this, is capacity. I have zero numbers to back this up, it's just a complete guess, but what these parks/attractions/and new resorts do is add more capacity and will draw more people to WDW. Does it extend the average stay above 7 days? No, probably not. But over all attendance probably increases, you've got more hotel rooms and more attractions to actually place people and entice people to come to WDW, therefore WDW is able to reap the benefits from adding new attractions, resorts, or parks.

There's a theme park less than 2 miles from my house called Carowinds, if Disney does not pump money into WDW every now and then, then they run the risk of just being another Carowinds. Old and stale. Everyone wants new and exciting things, if you don't offer these things, then people don't come as often.

And as far as growth potential at WDW, unless you are closing the parks every single day due to full capacity, or every single hotel room is booked, there is growth potential.

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Old 08-30-2012, 01:47 PM   #87
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So how do you reconcile this with DLR limiting the tickets to 5 days?
I don't see any juxtaposition, since the context was spending?

WDW-style spending when in the parks <> WDW LOS.

As for why they limit tickets to 5 days...I'd guess they recognize their usual LOS is less than that. Which makes sense when you're talking 2 parks vs 4 (+ 2 waterparks, a shopping district, a family entertainment district, etc).

Not to mention there are AP options (for out of state guests) for as little as $180 more than the 5 day tickets run you.
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Old 08-30-2012, 01:56 PM   #88
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I keep reading that more attractions and/or more parks is something WDW wont do because it doesnt extend the average stay of a vacation.

I think one thing you guys are missing when you state this, is capacity. I have zero numbers to back this up, it's just a complete guess, but what these parks/attractions/and new resorts do is add more capacity and will draw more people to WDW. Does it extend the average stay above 7 days? No, probably not. But over all attendance probably increases, you've got more hotel rooms and more attractions to actually place people and entice people to come to WDW, therefore WDW is able to reap the benefits from adding new attractions, resorts, or parks.
Because those rooms that are filling up aren't "new guests". That's the thought. They're just moving their digs from one hotel (Disney owned, possibly, with DVC...."off property", possibly, for new hotel rooms) to another.

Why is that the thought? Because construction of other DVC additions and resorts, since AK opened, haven't resulted in massive spikes in total admission at the 4 parks. There has been steady growth, but not related to construction of new room inventory.

Which goes back to the point that WDW isn't really a growth market.

Quote:
There's a theme park less than 2 miles from my house called Carowinds, if Disney does not pump money into WDW every now and then, then they run the risk of just being another Carowinds. Old and stale. Everyone wants new and exciting things, if you don't offer these things, then people don't come as often.
But you have to recognize the difference between investing and refreshing..and 750 million bucks.

They've put 300+ million into FLE. They've reported they're going to spend about 400 million on "Avatarland" at AK, with groundbreaking in 2013.

I'm sure there will be some other attraction "refreshing" over the next 2 to 3 years, too. Mostly minor stuff, maybe one major. And they could add a "one off" here or there.

Quote:
And as far as growth potential at WDW, unless you are closing the parks every single day due to full capacity, or every single hotel room is booked, there is growth potential.
Spare capacity does not mean growth potential. Not in that industry.

In manufacturing, it's not about how many you can pump off the line. It's about how many you can sell when they come off the line.

Same thing, different industry. It doesn't matter how much room they have in the parks. It doesn't matter if they have some number of unbooked rooms at some points during the year. They have to convince people to book those rooms and buy those tickets. The ability (and maybe that's the wrong word...maybe "possibility" works better) to do THAT is what really marks growth potential.
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Old 08-30-2012, 02:12 PM   #89
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They have to convince people to book those rooms and buy those tickets.
That's actually one of the points I was trying to make, by adding new attractions or new resorts, what does it do? It peaks people's interest, and instead of going to the beach this year, that family might go to WDW for their vacation.

If investments are not made at WDW it becomes old and stale, like almost every other theme park in America, and loses its magic.

Quite honestly you guys believe that WDW is maxed out and Disney wouldn't spend money to attract people.

Personally, I think thats wrong, Disney has been always been one step ahead of the other theme parks, its because they try new, innovative things and aren't afraid to spend the big bucks to do it right. If that practice changes, Disney is just another Carowinds.

As long as people have expendable income, WDW has grown potential.
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Old 08-30-2012, 02:16 PM   #90
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While the 7 day cap rule may apply, not everyone stays that long. Making AK and HS full day parks may induce folks to stay an extra day.
I don't have much more to add to what the others have said.

Just think about your personal situation. Even if Disney replicated Cars Land at DHS, would that be enough for you to add more time to your own typical vacation? Not just one trip but consistently. Whether you go for 6 days...7 days...8 days, is Cars Land going to take you to 7, 8 or 9 days?

I don't see how anyone could honestly answer 'yes' to that. As great as Walt Disney World is, we all know you can't see everything in one trip. If giving a Cars Land its due means one less afternoon in Adventureland or walking aimlessly through Innoventions, that's exactly what folks will do.

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Moving off-site vistors to on-site defines revenue growth to me. Don't confuse attendance number with actual revenue. Disney could care less about attendance numbers if it doesn't translate to revenue growth.
Oh, I agree completely here. Building new hotels is definitely about growing revenue. They want to pull business away from non-Disney lodging. No question.

But is Cars Land going to similarly grow revenues in the parks? I have my doubts, given how tapped-out consumers already are. Cannibalization seems more likely.
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