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#1321 | |
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I'm with Beast
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Pacific Northwest
Posts: 11,265
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First and primary at the moment is my of not being able to get a bookable day to even get it started now that it is gone 2 days out. If folks are walking, and I'm sure they are, it is very possible this trend will continue and there will no longer be a day "one" available to book if the next day is gone before booking opens for that day as it is within someone else's window. Second is that even if I am able to get it started, someone else doing the same thing could effectively take my room for future days depending on configurations of 1B/2B/Studio bookings as well as the ability to book further out online than I can on the starting date. So for example the following could occur I would think. For simplification reasons lets say there are only 2 potential 2b's avail for the category I want but all can be booked as studio/1b/2b. on 12/26 I book a 2B for 3 nights (26-29) Someone else books a 1B for 7 nights (26-1) Another party books a studio for 7 nights (26-1) on 12/27 someone books online, a studio for 5 nights (27-31) When I call at 9am on the 27th to walk, I cannot extend my 2B booking by a night as the 30th is now taken by the studio, leaving a 1B avail to book but not a 2. If you have enough points to walk a full 7 nights and call each day then yes, you should be fully safe but I'm not sure that waiting until the last day of the reservation is enough time to protect you from the above scenario, just too many variables with check in/out and configurations. Unless I'm missing something. I figure the reality is there are around 37 or so 2B's potentially available for booking in the BW view category (more or less). Total swag on that looking at the map which appears to be 25% BW, 50% P/G and 25% standard. It may be a little less, standard actually appears to be more. It also means only 37 studios or 1B's and since both are needed for the reservation (no dedicated 2B's), it definitely shows how it could be difficult. Yes, I'm over thinking this to death. The studio bookings are definitely a huge factor, those are sold out to match the 2B sold out categories but 1B's are still available for all.
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#1322 |
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DIS Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Bayou Country, La.
Posts: 21,761
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Oh Lord Have Mercy! I can offer nothing but a "I sure hope things work out the way you want them to."
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#1323 |
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DIS Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Minnesota
Posts: 6,645
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Oh Cynthia - Good luck! That's all the help I can offer!
Do you have a job where you are an analyst of sorts? I know you like spreadsheets! You have a analytical mind - I hope this planning doesn't make you nuts!
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Sheree,
Mom to Sarah (DD12) Paige (DD10) and married to Dave![]() Beauty and the Beach ~ Deluxe Edition PTR ; Resorts, Relatives & Restaurants - and a 3 day cruise My December 2009 TR ; What Are You Celebrating?? Air Conditioning!! A July 2010 TR; Someday is sooner than you think! A March 2011 PTRThe Drive, the Dream and DVC - A March 2011 Birthday Surprise TR Sound the Twilight Bark and Pass the Chocolate Croissants A London/Paris PTR A Bird's Eye View of London and Paris March 2012 TR WDW in October vs. HHI in March TR |
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#1324 |
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Chiefs fan living in Bronco country
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Denver, CO
Posts: 3,246
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My head hurts! This is why I never plan too far ahead.
Good luck!!!!!!Jill in CO |
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#1325 |
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DDC
![]() Maybe the entire internet is slowing down because of this thread Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: CT
Posts: 11,330
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Cynthia, why is it that all your trips have this kind of 'problem' with the planning?
![]() ![]() I have no idea what you are talking about. Time to break out one of your trusty spreadsheets me thinks.
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#1326 | |||||||||
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I'm with Beast
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Pacific Northwest
Posts: 11,265
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Sometimes they work, and sometimes we get into the
"I don't know, what do you want to do?" "I don't know, what do you want to do?" And no one can decide, or everyone wants something different and we end up paralyzed and unable to move forward. Quote:
Palo had a similar treatment. It's a solo venture on the Wonder but on the dream they split the space between Palo and Remy and stuck a lounge in the middle. I do think all the views suffered a little as a result. Quote:
Evan's note was funny. I got a distinct sense of him feeling put upon that JUST he wanted to go to breakfast. Quote:
! It is a lovely lovely ship!Quote:
![]() Yes, he puts up with it and even angles his plate at times for a shot. All the kids do now. It's pretty funny. Quote:
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![]() Blame your fellow DISdad's for that one, that's all I have to say.
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#1327 | |||||||||||
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I'm with Beast
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Pacific Northwest
Posts: 11,265
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It's a good time of year for soups & stews, I've been doing a lot of them lately. Comfort food season for sure! Yep, MIA. Quote:
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#1328 | |
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DIS Dad #460
You should always make room for a loophole when you need it Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Indiana
Posts: 8,098
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Andy
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#1329 | |
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DIS Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Nuremberg, Germany
Posts: 5,694
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This only works with the 11-months window. Since nobody can book a vacation starting further out, the number of people having reservation for nights further out than exactly 11 months out always has to be equal or lower than the number of people having reservation for the 11-months window day. I wish I could explain this more clearly. Maybe if you imagine a huge chart where every room is a line. Reservations beyond the 11-months window can only ever go as parallel lines to one room with a starting point in the 11-months window. They can't jump to another room. |
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#1330 | ||||||||
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I'm with Beast
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Pacific Northwest
Posts: 11,265
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![]() Over analytical. Which there is another word for.... No, not really. Sort of. I'm in business development so there is some analysis involved (and right now budgeting so my head hurts) but generally speaking I'm only an analyst as far as assessing market strategy and business opportunities and positioning my team and company well for both. Today I am not loving spreadsheets but that might be more I'm not loving the fact that people unerringly seem to delete or write over spreadsheets in areas they shouldn't but yet I get yelled at if I lock the cells so they can't. ![]() Yell might be strong, the headache is more likely due to co workers color coding ever other cell in a way only meaningful to them. Which is fine if it's your's but oh...it makes my eyes hurt! I wouldn't say it's making me nuts. I mean I did know that NYE was the single most popular night for DVC. I did know that the resort and view I want is one of the very most difficult to get for NYE (and other times) even at 11m out). I do think I'll be able, at a minimum, to get a pool/garden view. It just isn't what I want and so more than anything, it's making me sad...and a little mad. Mad in the sense that I really don't want to deal with "walking", sad that to get what I want it is becoming apparent that I will have to and even more sad that I may have already missed the boat to do so. Which then makes me mad at myself. ![]() I don't have the heart to tell Jeff until all is said and done. I think the kids would be just as happy with the pool view but I'm going to have a sad DH if I can't pull of BW view after getting the add on there and I'll be a train wreck if I can't get pool/garden because I waited hoping BW would open back up. Quote:
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![]() Heck, this is nothing, there is other drama for this trip but I'm not going there yet as, as far as I'm concerned until I ahve my villa booked the rest is a bit irrelevant and I can only control me. And Jeff And the E's Shhhh don't tell them! Just you wait...you will be outgrowing a regular room very soon. Quote:
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#1331 | |
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I'm with Beast
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Pacific Northwest
Posts: 11,265
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Still have to get that first day though so right now I'm on hold till Sat unless somehow tomorrow really opens up and I can start the walk then. Seems odd to start it before I'd even get to the day I want but with 11m and 11+1 gone already it makes me nervous. I guess the plan for now is that starting tomorrow if I see it open, I jump on it and start walking. Sat would be better for my dates, and has a better chance since tomorrow is already booked unless someone drops xmas day (unlikely!). If it's still at 11+1 tomorrow I just keep checking and hoping I can get a day 1 between now and the 29th and nothing past that fills up. That parts pretty straightforward really, and at present, out of my hands until a day is open. The quandary becomes what to do if I see the 11+1 continue each day, effectively locking me out of even starting a reservation. Do I book an alternate view and waitlist what I want or wait until my 11m day to book the alternate view, keeping my options as open as possible? This assumes the pool garden stays available and I don't know that will be the case, it is sold out for the 22nd and actually sold out around the 20th. However, it is still available right now, which is encouraging. At the end of the day I want to hold out for that BW view but don't want to miss my chance to book pool/garden and end up with nothing.
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#1332 |
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DIS Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Charlotte NC
Posts: 7,204
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I really think this will all work out since I assume lots will book to "hold" it and end up cancelling it.
To give you any hpe I was able to book Dec 30 - Jan 3 about 2-3 months out. It was a studio and lots of 1b were left but the studios were hard to come by. I had the beginning and the end and had to wait for dec 31 on a waitlist for a while. Ended up with a split SSR and AKL but the point is I got it. I know you have your heart set on something specific and hopefully it will work. If not out of the gate then a waitlist should take care of it.
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#1333 | |
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I'm with Beast
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Pacific Northwest
Posts: 11,265
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Quote:
Right now I have a good feeling about pool/garden view at a minimum, it's the BW view that is at risk. We will see, it will be an interesting weekend. As expected the 25th was still gone all day today. Interestingly enough though, the 24th opened back up. I did put in a couple of waitlists to start the "walk" as that will not impact my ability to book online at 8am tomorrow if something is available and then I will walk from there but I figured it couldn't hurt, especially after I read of someone having a standard view studio waitlist filled the same day they put it in (put in on the 24th, for the 23rd) as that may explain some of what is happening to folks when they log in at 8, see things are available but by the time they click through to book, they are gone. At some point through I'll have to decide whether or not to just book the other view and commit more to a waitlist. And with entering info for 8 folks, that could happen to me. LOL! We will see.
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#1334 |
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DIS Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Austria
Posts: 11,292
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Cynthia, I don't really know if that's possible, but can you waitlist a different view?
I waitlisted for the first time for BLT and we were only 5 weeks out. Got it the next day. I know you are going at Christmas time, but people DO cancel. Sorry, I guess I am not much help.
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#1335 | |
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I'm with Beast
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Pacific Northwest
Posts: 11,265
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Quote:
As of this morning though I am hopeful I will not need to. Walking has commenced! I really didn't want to walk but versus the alternative seemed needed. And, while I know I don't have to do it daily, I will. For 2 reasons. 1st to free up a night that might be really needed by someone and 2nd to get closer to my real dates that much faster. I'll breathe easier on Monday after NYE and NYD is secured but at least I have our check in day! Kind of a good thing I had to do a practice run, had I not I might not have had all the kids ages and addresses handy, that took a bit to enter.
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