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Old 10-19-2009, 11:40 AM   #1
edk35
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Will our dues go up up up up up....since other DVC things are happening??

Is there a limit to how much dues can go up? A cap so to speak?? Will we all be SHOCKED when we get our statements in Dec.??????
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Old 10-19-2009, 11:56 AM   #2
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By law dues can't exceed costs & budgeted reserves.

The POS states that the non-taxes portion can't go up by more than 15% IIRC, and historically it is generally 3-5% every year.

So over 50ish years they will go up a lot because of compounding, but in any given year it probably won't be a huge increase. You may want to look at some historic trends to see what has happened before. It's not a guarantee for the future but is a starting point for estimates. Here's a link:

http://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-pro...ask=view&id=51
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Old 10-19-2009, 12:39 PM   #3
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Is there a limit to how much dues can go up? A cap so to speak?? Will we all be SHOCKED when we get our statements in Dec.??????
Disney doesn't want the dues to go up, at least not until they sell all of the existing inventory. I feel that they deliberately keep the dues low to make it easier to sell new contracts.

That's why there aren't more paid perks and why the rooms and resorts aren't maintained as well as they could be.

Bill
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Old 10-19-2009, 12:41 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by disneynutz View Post
Disney doesn't want the dues to go up, at least not until they sell all of the existing inventory. I feel that they deliberately keep the dues low to make it easier to sell new contracts.

That's why there aren't more paid perks and why the rooms and resorts aren't maintained as well as they could be.

Bill
And why it takes more points to stay in a BLT villa vs the others.
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Old 10-19-2009, 02:22 PM   #5
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Rethinking this a bit; when OP said "since other DVC things are happening" in the title, what were you referring to?

Do you mean how are your dues impacted by new resorts (such as Hawaii and possibly the DC area) and what not? Short answer is there should be very little or no impact from them. Dues are for the upkeep of YOUR home resort(s) and their share of common DVC expenses (Member Services for instance).
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Old 10-19-2009, 02:40 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DVCGeek View Post
Rethinking this a bit; when OP said "since other DVC things are happening" in the title, what were you referring to?

Do you mean how are your dues impacted by new resorts (such as Hawaii and possibly the DC area) and what not? Short answer is there should be very little or no impact from them. Dues are for the upkeep of YOUR home resort(s) and their share of common DVC expenses (Member Services for instance).


Oh I guess I should have clarified better. I mean...it seems that with the "current economy" there have been little things here and there that have changed, for example the "valet perk" and more complaints to MS about this that and the other. I just wonderered..if our dues would be impacted by the economy changes/ cut backs at WDW and such.
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Old 10-19-2009, 03:40 PM   #7
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Oh I guess I should have clarified better. I mean...it seems that with the "current economy" there have been little things here and there that have changed, for example the "valet perk" and more complaints to MS about this that and the other. I just wonderered..if our dues would be impacted by the economy changes/ cut backs at WDW and such.
We can only speculate about how the weakened national economy could impact our MFs, but I don't think anyone can establish a casual relationship between the two with any certainty. For example, our MFs receive a positive impact from breakage income, which is income derived from DVC inventory rooms that are turned over to CRO for booking at the 60-day mark. Breakage income is about 8 cents to about 10 cents per point. If fewer people are traveling to WDW due to the economy, or if those that are traveling to WDW are opting for cheaper non-DVC rooms, then each DVC resort's breakage income might be less. Another possible adverse variable are the ad valorem taxes each resort is billed by the local taxing authorities. If the local authorities aren't getting the needed revenue from sales taxes, income taxes, etc, they might try to make up the shortfall by increasing the taxes on DVC resorts.
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Old 10-19-2009, 06:00 PM   #8
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Best guess is that dues might go up a little (2% to 3%). We should still max out on breakage income -- actual income from renting rooms at the breakage period is actually a lot more than the breakage income that goes to set off dues; that income goes first to offset dues but up to no more than 2.5 % of the annual operating budget, amounts after that 2.5 max go next to MS for operating expenses and then anything left over goes to Disney's bottom line. Thus, even a decline in total breakage income should still leave members getting the max offset of dues.

I suspect employee costs (wages, benefits for Disney employees and outsourced such as housekeeping)have not gone up much this year because of the lack of any real wage increases and employee costs are probably at least 60% of everything in the budget; however insurance costs for those employees will likely increase. Property and liability insurance costs have likely risen but transportation costs might have even declined -- when budgeted last year for this year gasoline prices were significantly higher than they are now. Property taxes may have risen but I think the local government agencies made their main moves before last year's budget. In any event, I am guessing that the upcoming budgets should not have any big moves from last year.
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Old 10-19-2009, 06:25 PM   #9
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I assume that a lot of things go on behind the stage that we will never know about. When you talk about breakage income we assume that we get dollar for dollar.

Buy the time Disney CRO takes their discount and the DVC subtracts their processing fees, I bet that it makes more money for Disney than the membership. If it didn't they would leave more rooms in reserve and available when rooms should be taken out of inventory for maintenance reasons.

Same thing for declared inventory. How many rooms does Disney deliberately not declare so CRO can rent them out. What's the formula and is it adhered to?

Bill
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Old 10-19-2009, 07:53 PM   #10
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I think DVC has done a great job of keeping costs increases reasonable the past 16 years or so. But I'm worried about 2010 dues. Crashes in the Orlando housing market could lead to tax increases.
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Old 10-19-2009, 08:09 PM   #11
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Another factor that may effect our dues is the return on the money has invested for capital expenses may (probably) will show a lower return. It could be reflected in an increase. That's one of the effects we felt post-9/11. I don't expect to see a "shocking" increase this year but I think the days of flat to even decreasing dues are behind us.
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Old 10-19-2009, 09:10 PM   #12
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Same thing for declared inventory. How many rooms does Disney deliberately not declare so CRO can rent them out. What's the formula and is it adhered to?

Bill
In the recent cases of BLT, SSR, and AKV, I am amazed at how many units DVD declares for the DVC that are not actually needed based on the rate of sales. For example, on August 31, 2009 DVD declared 20 2-bedroom villas for AKV, which brought 325,800 points into the AKV. However, through October 15, 2009, DVD has only sold 3,040 points from this declaration. Equally noteworthy, DVD still has 121,988 points to be sold from the prior AKV declaration made on November 21, 2008. Based on the rate of AKV sales, there was no need for DVD to roll out 20 more 2-bedroom villas for the DVC in August 2009.

DVD has "overdeclared" units for SSR as well. On January 22, 2009, DVD declared 30 Treehouse villas for the DVC. Yet, through 10/15/2009, it has only sold 126,162 of the 452,625 (27.9%) points from this declaration. At the rate of SSR sales, DVD could have easily declared only 10 THVs for the DVC and still have a large cushion of points. Thus, the DVC membership has had far more THVs available for bookings than justified by sales. Even in BLT's case, DVD has declared units at a faster rate than sales.

Based on its current policy of Declarations, it appears that DVD is actually quite liberal in turning over more units to the DVC inventory than warranted by sales. I don't know what formula it uses, but, at least for the past year, it has been to the benefit of the DVC membership.
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Old 10-19-2009, 10:48 PM   #13
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Based on its current policy of Declarations, it appears that DVD is actually quite liberal in turning over more units to the DVC inventory than warranted by sales. I don't know what formula it uses, but, at least for the past year, it has been to the benefit of the DVC membership.
If they have declared more units than sales, that means that somewhere there will be a lot of vacant rooms. That tells me that Disney makes more money turning over vacant rooms to CRO verses not declaring them.

Bill
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Old 10-20-2009, 08:48 AM   #14
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I think DVC has done a great job of keeping costs increases reasonable the past 16 years or so. But I'm worried about 2010 dues. Crashes in the Orlando housing market could lead to tax increases.
Maybe I'm missing something here, but I thought property taxes were a percent of the properties value. If this is the case I would think a weakened housing market would send property values down, resulting in lower property taxes overall. I know this is the case in my hometown, which is why cities are trying to make up the money elsewhere (code enforcement, more traffic tickets, etc.) Orange County cant just raise taxes because revenue is down, it has to be based on the propertie's value. I doubt the value of these properties has increased during this recession.
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Old 10-20-2009, 09:41 AM   #15
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I suspect employee costs (wages, benefits for Disney employees and outsourced such as housekeeping)have not gone up much this year because of the lack of any real wage increases
While I hope you (and others) are correct that dues increases won't be too high for 2010 for the variety of reasons posted, wasn't there a broad reaching wage increase of 4 to 5% for thousands of employees in Sept. or early this month?

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Maybe I'm missing something here, but I thought property taxes were a percent of the properties value.
Yes, that is generally the case, BUT the tax percentage (milage) could go up. Usually this would require a vote by the residents (I think). I assume that is how it works in FL (and CA & SC)...
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