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Old 10-15-2013, 01:00 PM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glamdring269 View Post
Thanks again all, I do appreciate the lively discussion. SSR may ultimately be the best idea for us to at least get started but we still have a number of things to consider.

One of those considerations is Poly. This would likely be the only place I might consider buying direct from Disney when sales go live. I love this resort. I have fond, but vague, childhood memories of the property and enjoyed the time we spent walking around last week on our way to Ohana.

Here's my question: When do these resorts typically start to go on sale relative to their projected open date? For example, VGF is slated to open this month but when did Disney start selling those points? Just trying to understand how long we'll be waiting before seeing what details are on the table for Poly.
I believe they started selling VGF on May 23rd, 2013. (To current members) Non-members it was a little less than a month after that.
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Old 10-15-2013, 01:12 PM   #32
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I believe they started selling VGF on May 23rd, 2013. (To current members) Non-members it was a little less than a month after that.
Thanks. I was actually just looking through the resource thread for something else and noticed this as well. That's a great point about the non-member date lag though.
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Old 10-15-2013, 01:28 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glamdring269 View Post
Thanks again all, I do appreciate the lively discussion. SSR may ultimately be the best idea for us to at least get started but we still have a number of things to consider.

One of those considerations is Poly. This would likely be the only place I might consider buying direct from Disney when sales go live. I love this resort. I have fond, but vague, childhood memories of the property and enjoyed the time we spent walking around last week on our way to Ohana.

Here's my question: When do these resorts typically start to go on sale relative to their projected open date? For example, VGF is slated to open this month but when did Disney start selling those points? Just trying to understand how long we'll be waiting before seeing what details are on the table for Poly.
I think that the Florida timeshare laws require that a certain percentage of construction be completed before pre-sales can begin. That's one of the reasons why converting existing resort rooms to DVC is an option for the Poly. They can start making money ASAP and use the profits to fund the new construction. That's what they did at AKV's.

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Old 10-15-2013, 08:37 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by glamdring269 View Post
One of those considerations is Poly. This would likely be the only place I might consider buying direct from Disney when sales go live. I love this resort. I have fond, but vague, childhood memories of the property and enjoyed the time we spent walking around last week on our way to Ohana.

Here's my question: When do these resorts typically start to go on sale relative to their projected open date? For example, VGF is slated to open this month but when did Disney start selling those points? Just trying to understand how long we'll be waiting before seeing what details are on the table for Poly.
For many looking to get in and who think a new resort may be a good choice for them is to buy some points now say at SSR and then do an add on when the new resort (Poly) comes along. In many ways you get the best of both worlds. Cheaper points and fees and access to a very high demand resort for specific stays. The main negative I can see is that for many you'll pay more than you would just buying points now at say SSR due to the fact larger contracts are less than smaller ones. But it'll be much cheaper than waiting and buying all at the Poly or at VGF. In part the total number of points involved may determine the reasonableness of this approach. For 150 points total or less, it's likely not reasonable but for a larger total, north of 200, it may make sense. Plus it allows access and usage now AND access to the resort you ultimate want to use part of the time. Many people own at multiple resorts.

Not only will you have access to inventory a little earlier in all likelihood, you'll likely get it a little cheaper than waiting and buying new for all points at that time.
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Old 10-16-2013, 11:59 AM   #35
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Let me ask you guys a pricing question here. I know all situations are not created equal but this is just a scenario. I'm basically trying to determine value of a stripped contract.

100 points at VWL
$100/point asking price
$10000 (not counting closing)
No 13 or 14 points available. 10/15 is when first available.

I saw a 50 point contract in the ROFR thread sell for $87/point that still had some '12 points all 13/14 points.

So let's assume $87/point here as an offer that would drop the 100 point price down to $8700. Well, the problem here is I'm now missing two years of points. Should I also decrease the value of what I could get if I had those points and could have sold them?

Example, 200 points x $10/point = $2000
$8700 - $2000 = $6700
$6700 + $1158 ($5.79/pt maintenance fee for 2 years) = $7858
$7858 / 100 = $78.58 / point


So I would offer $78.58 per point, or $7858.

Am I thinking about this correctly? Or am I placing too much value on points that have been stripped from a contract? This does also assume that the $87/point start was a good place. Might be a little inflated due to the 50 point contract premium. If there is a general advice thread on how to go about negotiating prices I would love to see it. Apologies in advance if I've overlooked it.

Thanks!

*edited because I forgot they pay some maintenance fees* adjustment made above.
*realized some amazing grammatical errors... corrected!*

Last edited by glamdring269; 10-17-2013 at 07:45 AM.
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Old 10-16-2013, 08:07 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glamdring269 View Post
Let me ask you guys a pricing question here. I know all situations are not created equal but this is just a scenario. I'm basically trying to determine value of a stripped contract.

100 points at VWL
$100/point asking price
$10000 (not counting closing)
No 13 or 14 points available. 10/15 is when first available.

I saw a 50 point contract in the ROFR thread sell for $87/point that still had some '12 points all 13/14 points.

So let's assume $87/point here as an offer that would drop the 100 point price down to $8700. Well, the problem here is I'm not missing two years of points. Should I also decreased the value of what I could get if I had those points and could have sold them?

Example, 200 points x $10/point = $2000
$8700 - $2000 = $6700
$6700 + $1158 ($5.79/pt maintenance fee for 2 years) = $7858
$7858 / 100 = $78.58 / point


So I would offer $78.58 per point, or $7858.

Am I thinking about this correctly? Or am I placing too much value on points that have been stripped from a contract? This does also assume that the $87/point start was a good place. Might be a little inflated due to the 50 point contract premium. If there is a general advice thread on how to go about negotiating prices I would love to see it. Apologies in advance if I've overlooked it.

Thanks!

*edited because I forgot they pay some maintenance fees* adjustment made above.
In my opinion the price of a stripped contract and to a degree, a loaded contract, should be determined based on the actual value of the points gained or lost in that year or 2. Obviously there are other factors for small or difficult to find contracts but that's the exception. Basically it's taking the value of the point you don't have (or can't use) and subtracting them from the starting neutral value. I'd use $10 a point or slightly higher as an adjustment (up or down) INCLUDING maint fees. IMO you need to be able to close and use the points to count them as value.

Say 100 point contract for Feb UY with no 13 or 14 points. No fees reimbursed for 2013 but come Jan you'd pay the 2014 dues for an entire year of points you don't have. Then in another year you'd pay an additional month of dues for those lost fees (for Feb, more if the UY is later). I'll round off the numbers.

100 points lost from 2013 -$500 (no points and no fees)
100 points lost from 2014 -$1000 (no points but pay the fees)
2015 dues -$40

So a 100 point Feb UY contract with no 13 or 14 points with buyer paying dues for Jan and beyond is worth approximately $1550 less than a contract with all points and the 13 points either usable or banked. Subtract another $40 roughly per month (or actual fees) for a later UY. IF you had 12 points and could use them, I'd add only a small amount due the the limitations. Put another way, take the stripped contract and figure what you'd have it was loaded and you rented the points.
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Old 10-17-2013, 07:14 AM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glamdring269 View Post
Let me ask you guys a pricing question here. I know all situations are not created equal but this is just a scenario. I'm basically trying to determine value of a stripped contract.

100 points at VWL
$100/point asking price
$10000 (not counting closing)
No 13 or 14 points available. 10/15 is when first available.

I saw a 50 point contract in the ROFR thread sell for $87/point that still had some '12 points all 13/14 points.

So let's assume $87/point here as an offer that would drop the 100 point price down to $8700. Well, the problem here is I'm not missing two years of points. Should I also decreased the value of what I could get if I had those points and could have sold them?

Example, 200 points x $10/point = $2000
$8700 - $2000 = $6700
$6700 + $1158 ($5.79/pt maintenance fee for 2 years) = $7858
$7858 / 100 = $78.58 / point


So I would offer $78.58 per point, or $7858.

Am I thinking about this correctly? Or am I placing too much value on points that have been stripped from a contract? This does also assume that the $87/point start was a good place. Might be a little inflated due to the 50 point contract premium. If there is a general advice thread on how to go about negotiating prices I would love to see it. Apologies in advance if I've overlooked it.

Thanks!

*edited because I forgot they pay some maintenance fees* adjustment made above.
IMO, a stripped contract is worth less than a loaded one. I think your pricing rationale is just fine.

That said, for resale, it seems to boil down to market conditions and the rules of supply & demand.

In the last few months, the smaller point contracts (100 or less) have been selling at or very near asking price. Those who offer less often lose out to someone willing to pay list (even though rationally a stripped contract is not "worth list" compared to non-stripped contracts). It's been a sellers' market. The current market may be turning more towards the buyer.

In the end, the best advice is to offer what you are wiling to pay. If your offer is rejected, keep trying. Good luck!

P.S. Keep in mind that the ROFR thread is based on DIS poster buyer reports. More of the good to excellent deals will be reported than the average or not-so-good deals. People are people, LOL.
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Old 10-17-2013, 07:47 AM   #38
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Good advice, and thanks to both of you for replying. Glad to hear I'm on the right track with my thinking at a high level, but do understand that my thinking may not be the same as other buyers (or sellers!) so in the end it boils down to what I'm willing to write a check for. Seems pretty straight forward.
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Old 10-17-2013, 12:02 PM   #39
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Another question, this time on UY...

If I'm most likely to travel in Jun, Oct, Dec is there a problem with June UY? Based on the OP I received a suggestion of October which does make sense to me but the concern there are the amount of available Oct contracts.

If I understand UY correctly then it seems a June UY would still give me ample time time to bank current use year points if I have to cancel an Oct or Dec trip. FYI, I doubt I would travel in JAN/FEB/MAR/APR, but could travel in last week of May potentially.

Am I thinking about this correctly?

Scenario:
- June UY - 100 points
- December '13 trip scheduled using 100 June '13 points
- Realize I need to cancel in early November so cancel reservation.
- Decide to bank the 100 points immediately since I know I will not be able to use them this UY.
- June 1 2014 - I now have access to the 100 '13 UY banked points as well as the 100 '14 UY points.
- Must use (or sell/transfer) the '13 UY points by May 31 2015 or lose them. Must bank the '14 points by Jan 31 2015 or use them by May 31 2015 or lose them.

So based on the scenario this will work for me but I'm probably looking at this simplistically. What are the negatives to having a June UY in my scenario? I assume any negatives revolve around the usage of banked points?

Thanks again. You have all been extremely helpful!
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Old 10-17-2013, 12:22 PM   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glamdring269 View Post
Another question, this time on UY...

If I'm most likely to travel in Jun, Oct, Dec is there a problem with June UY?
from the OP:

Quote:
Originally Posted by glamdring269 View Post
About us...

1) Two adults, no kids
2) Most likely to travel during October, followed by late May/early June, followed by Christmas.
what happens if you travel in late may if you have a june UY and need to cancel? this is why you were steered away from a june UY before.

Quote:
Am I thinking about this correctly?

Scenario:
- June UY - 100 points
- December '13 trip scheduled using 100 June '13 points
- Realize I need to cancel in early November so cancel reservation.
- Decide to bank the 100 points immediately since I know I will not be able to use them this UY.
- June 1 2014 - I now have access to the 100 '13 UY banked points as well as the 100 '14 UY points.
- Must use (or sell/transfer) the '13 UY points by May 31 2015 or lose them. Must bank the '14 points by Jan 31 2015 or use them by May 31 2015 or lose them.
i don't like the underlined language since you can book a stay after june 1, 2014 with those banked 13 and current 14 pts before june 1, 2014 (but i think you understand that). so in general, i think you are thinking correctly.
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Old 10-17-2013, 12:29 PM   #41
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Take a look at this thread - it may help you better understand what people are telling you about use year:

Understanding Use Year

.
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Old 10-17-2013, 12:32 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by chalee94 View Post
from the OP:



what happens if you travel in late may if you have a june UY and need to cancel? this is why you were steered away from a june UY before.
Very good point. I think for the purpose of this exercise I'm assuming we would just not travel at the end of May. The only reason we would do that as of now is because it ties in closely to the end of school and we could just delay the trip start a day or two to ensure it begins in June. This also likely means we get to bypass a weekend making the trip that much cheaper. Ultimately we would just have to be very aware of the fact that using points in late May carries a risk.

So assuming no travel in late May, would June be an ok choice for travel primarily in June/Oct/Dec?

And to the underlined portion, you're right, the language was not the best. I understand that you can begin using that once you're in the 11/7 months booking range along with the additional normal UY points.

Thanks again.
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Old 10-17-2013, 12:35 PM   #43
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Take a look at this thread - it may help you better understand what people are telling you about use year:

Understanding Use Year

.

Thanks Carol, I'll be sure to go through that thread again. It has been awhile. Honestly I think I'm ok with June but just looking for assurance that I'm not overlooking something more than anything else. I tend to overanalyze and fall victim to analysis paralysis way too often.

After reading through again I think this is likely the most important point:

Quote:
Use year only matters if you have to cancel a vacation that was scheduled to occur late in your use year - during the last three months. That's because banking is not allowed during the last four months of your use year and so you don't have much time to reschedule before the points expire. Many owners never have to cancel a vacation (lucky them, LOL) so they don't worry about use year.
So basically, if I never (or rarely) intend to travel during Mar/Apr/May then June should work out just fine.

This does lead me to another question... as usual...

I'd like to confirm that point usage is specific to the date of use and not tied to the start date of the trip. Example with June UY: If I have a trip that starts in May and ends in June, but have to cancel in April, I would lose any current UY points that I did not bank but could still bank the June UY points used to support the June dates. Is this right?

I think this will be my last question for awhile!

Last edited by glamdring269; 10-17-2013 at 12:57 PM.
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Old 10-17-2013, 03:15 PM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glamdring269 View Post
...(snip)......


So basically, if I never (or rarely) intend to travel during Mar/Apr/May then June should work out just fine.
Correct.
Quote:
Originally Posted by glamdring269 View Post
This does lead me to another question... as usual...

I'd like to confirm that point usage is specific to the date of use and not tied to the start date of the trip. Example with June UY: If I have a trip that starts in May and ends in June, but have to cancel in April, I would lose any current UY points that I did not bank but could still bank the June UY points used to support the June dates. Is this right?

I think this will be my last question for awhile!
Also correct.
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Old 10-17-2013, 06:47 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by glamdring269 View Post
Another question, this time on UY...

If I'm most likely to travel in Jun, Oct, Dec is there a problem with June UY? Based on the OP I received a suggestion of October which does make sense to me but the concern there are the amount of available Oct contracts.

If I understand UY correctly then it seems a June UY would still give me ample time time to bank current use year points if I have to cancel an Oct or Dec trip. FYI, I doubt I would travel in JAN/FEB/MAR/APR, but could travel in last week of May potentially.

Am I thinking about this correctly?

Scenario:
- June UY - 100 points
- December '13 trip scheduled using 100 June '13 points
- Realize I need to cancel in early November so cancel reservation.
- Decide to bank the 100 points immediately since I know I will not be able to use them this UY.
- June 1 2014 - I now have access to the 100 '13 UY banked points as well as the 100 '14 UY points.
- Must use (or sell/transfer) the '13 UY points by May 31 2015 or lose them. Must bank the '14 points by Jan 31 2015 or use them by May 31 2015 or lose them.

So based on the scenario this will work for me but I'm probably looking at this simplistically. What are the negatives to having a June UY in my scenario? I assume any negatives revolve around the usage of banked points?

Thanks again. You have all been extremely helpful!
Assuming equal usage for all 3 months, June would be the best by far because you would still be in your banking window for any points that you end up canceling during those 3 months AND you'd statistically have the largest part of the UY to reuse them if you need and couldn't bank such as for banked points. You'd also have the most time to use any points that might end up in a holding status. If your normal usage is heavily slated to one time or another, that could change the UY that's best but the principles still apply. Say most of your travel would be Dec with a small % in the other 2 months, Dec instantly becomes the best choice.
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