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Old 09-26-2013, 01:12 PM   #16
Deb & Bill
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DVCcurious View Post
You should be willing to pay $11 over "fair market value" of a standard contract (no banked, all current and future points).....
No, I meant automatically $11 over their asking price because you have the use of the points that they already paid the dues on, plus the current year points that the dues have already been paid on.
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Old 09-26-2013, 02:19 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dizzyinwdw View Post
Hi all--

I thought I saw a thread where someone gave an estimate of fair price per point for a stripped contract, but cannot find it. I am eyeing a contract but no points till 2015.. I might just wait for another one since I would love to plan a trip next year LOL.

Thanks!
For future reference, I think most people overvalue stripped contracts, esp the sellers. I'd interpret a neutral contract as one with all current and future points and enough time remaining to both close and bank the points for this UY. I'd subtract for anything less and add very little or nothing for anything more like banked points. I'd establish the neutral position on maint fees as the way DVC themselves calculate them which means that most people overpay resale on maint fees. I'd deduct around $5 a point PLUS maint fees owed or to be paid by the buyer for any points missing. Let me give you a few examples to compare. I'll ignore home resort, use rounded prices of $50 pp and $5 pp for maint fees. I'll assume $500 for closing and 100 points just to make it simple.
  1. Lets say Sept UY all 100 points now and future with no banked points. Neutral pricing would put the total price at $5000 + $500 + $125 (3 months Oct to Dec).
  2. Same scenario with 100 banked points, I'd add maybe $500 since there are 11 months (minus closing time) to use the points.
  3. Same scenario as #1 with no 2013 points, I'd subtract $1000 (between price and fees or a little less if fees were figured CORRECTLY). Remember that if you bought now then paid the fees due in Jan, you'd be paying 9 months of the 2013 fees on points you didn't get.
  4. Same scenario as #1 but with with no 2013 or 2014 points, I'd subtract a full $2000 (or a little less if fees done correctly) between fees and price.
  5. Same scenario as #1 but with a UY too close to close and reasonably use like Dec or Feb, I'd treat it like the points weren't there.
Obviously one can take this format and adjust for different resorts or maint fees. I'd also suggest that a minor adjustment for UY could be in order as well. To convince oneself of the cost difference, assume you had the extra points in a given purchase and rented them out if you had enough time but assume any that were too short notice would be lost.
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Old 09-29-2013, 08:00 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DVCcurious View Post

Before I start I will say that you will NEVER get a good value buying a stripped deal because the sellers won't agree to the massively lowered value. You should ignore every contract without all 2013, 2014, and 2015 points. You will see why if you walk through the math below:

Quite easy to calculate.

Contract 1 (standard): no 2012 banked, all current year 2013 pts and all pts going forward

Fair value: XX per point (XX is the general average you see listed for sale on the resale sites).

Contract 2 (semi-stripped): no 2013, all 2014, all 2015

Fair value: XX per point - $11 per point for "lost rental revenue".

Explanation:
You could easily turn contract 1 into contract 2 by renting the 2013 points. If you bought contract 1, then immediately rented the 2013 points you would have a contract with no 2013, all 2014, all 2015 pts. Which is exactly what contract 2 is. If you pay $100 per point for contract 1 and then rent all the 2013 pts for $11 per point you would effectively have paid $89 per point for your contract.

Therefore, the fair value of contract 2 (stripped) HAS to be $11 less per point than contract 1. Using the same logic, a contract with banked 2012 points would be equal to XX + 11 points, because you could rent the 2012 points and have the exact same situation as contract 1 (no 2012, all 2013, all 2014, etc).

Example: If I was looking at Boardwalk which had no points until 2015 I would calculate it this way...

$85: Going rate for contracts with all 2013, 2014, 2015 pts.
-11: missing 2013 points
-11: missing 2014 points
$63: fair value for contract with no points until 2015.

Will someone sell you a stripped Boardwalk for $63? No. So don't waste your time with anything that doesn't have all 2013, 2014, and 2015 points. Stripped contracts are a rip-off to the buyer.
Agree and adding...
If buyer pays mf + and s smaller premium of 6$/7$ it is the same. (Depending on resort). Also it is not easy for a newer owner to rent points, and there is risk IMO at least 1-2$ worth putting that # closer to 4-6$... Which is about what it is.

Also you are assuming everything is equal and the exact same contract will be available. This market is unstable, and it is somewhat a sellers market, especially on small contracts..
Today's 76$ bc contract is tomorrow's 84$ contract and 71$ in a yr. it is a changing market. BW was down to 48$ ish and now can be seen at 80$.

So IMO if the contract fits, and you feel good with price bite.
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