DVC RESALES
DVC RESALES

Go Back   The DIS Discussion Forums - DISboards.com > Disney Vacation Club > Purchasing DVC
facebooktwitterpinterestgoogle plusyoutubeDIS UpdatesDIS email updates
Register Chat FAQ Tickers Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read





Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 05-07-2013, 01:16 PM   #31
rusafee1183
DVC Owner Since 2012!
 
rusafee1183's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Posts: 3,108

Quote:
Originally Posted by sgtpet View Post
Good luck, let us know if you get it.
I definitely will. Thanks! I am a little nervous about it because it feels like a tricky time to put in offers. I know how few VWL contracts are out there, and I know how long the waitlist is direct (we inquired last week) and I have been seeing a lot more contracts ROFR'd than usual.

I have a bad feeling, but I am hopeful. It will be very discouraging to lose this one. It's EXACTLY what we need.
__________________
Heather & Bob
rusafee1183 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2013, 12:28 PM   #32
DougEMG
DIS Veteran
 
DougEMG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
Posts: 1,732

Yesterday I saw a new 500 point BWV contract listed at one of the brokers so I put in a offer figuring I shouldn't have much competition for such a large contract. Was I wrong! Found out this morning that it had already sold.
__________________
DougEMG is offline   Reply With Quote
|
The DIS
Register to remove

Join Date: 1997
Location: Orlando, FL
Posts: 1,000,000
Old 05-08-2013, 12:34 PM   #33
NoleFan
DIS Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 710

Quote:
Originally Posted by DougEMG View Post
Yesterday I saw a new 500 point BWV contract listed at one of the brokers so I put in a offer figuring I shouldn't have much competition for such a large contract. Was I wrong! Found out this morning that it had already sold.
Off topic question Doug but you seem to have a bit of experience with DVC. For RORF purposes, does DVC exercise RORF more frequently on larger contracts than smaller (75 points or less)?? I know the availability of smaller contract is more limits & also are typically more expensive.
NoleFan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2013, 01:16 PM   #34
DougEMG
DIS Veteran
 
DougEMG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
Posts: 1,732

Quote:
Originally Posted by NoleFan View Post
Off topic question Doug but you seem to have a bit of experience with DVC. For RORF purposes, does DVC exercise RORF more frequently on larger contracts than smaller (75 points or less)?? I know the availability of smaller contract is more limits & also are typically more expensive.
No one knows exactly how or why Disney exercises ROFR, we all just have guesses.

I beleive that Disney can repackage a large contract into a number of smaller ones, UY has to stay the same though, so it doesn't really matter what they take.

My personal thought is that ROFR is driven purely by how many people are waiting for points on the wait lists. Given that they can wait 30 days for every contract, that givens them a 30 day window to wait to see if anything better comes in during that time.

If you look at the data from the last 12 months, the average size of a contract that was ROFR was 211 points. I've seen 50 point contracts taken and I've lost a 400 point contract myself. It's probably nothing more than what the average contract size is out there, so I don't think that there is any relationship between contract size and chance of getting ROFR.

Your best chance of passing ROFR is having someone else submit the same resort and UY year with a lower price at the same time as you
__________________
DougEMG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2013, 01:20 PM   #35
rusafee1183
DVC Owner Since 2012!
 
rusafee1183's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Posts: 3,108

Quote:
Originally Posted by DougEMG View Post
No one knows exactly how or why Disney exercises ROFR, we all just have guesses.

I beleive that Disney can repackage a large contract into a number of smaller ones, UY has to stay the same though, so it doesn't really matter what they take.

My personal thought is that ROFR is driven purely by how many people are waiting for points on the wait lists. Given that they can wait 30 days for every contract, that givens them a 30 day window to wait to see if anything better comes in during that time.

If you look at the data from the last 12 months, the average size of a contract that was ROFR was 211 points. I've seen 50 point contracts taken and I've lost a 400 point contract myself. It's probably nothing more than what the average contract size is out there, so I don't think that there is any relationship between contract size and chance of getting ROFR.

Your best chance of passing ROFR is having someone else submit the same resort and UY year with a lower price at the same time as you
Yikes.... well, I know for a fact there are a lot of people waiting on VWL (we added ourselves to the waitlist last week and our guide said 50 people were in front of us). It's looking less and less likely for my contract to pass.
__________________
Heather & Bob
rusafee1183 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2013, 01:26 PM   #36
Breyean
DVC Since '93
 
Breyean's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Scottsdale AZ
Posts: 999

Quote:
Originally Posted by DougEMG View Post

Your best chance of passing ROFR is having someone else submit the same resort and UY year with a lower price at the same time as you
I really think this is true. Look what two posters reported today on the ROFR thread. Both BLT, same UY, same price, one for 210 the other for 300 points.

One passed today and was was ROFR'd. I wonder which was reviewed first and if they took that one and then didn't need the second.

I also think this helped me pass at VGC a couple of months ago. Right before mine, there were several with a lot of points for my UY, but I passed since they were too many points.

When my was listed, I even joked with the broker that we should time submission to Disney to be right after those others because they could have picked up a lot of points with any of them, maybe satisfying the wait list for my UY.

Don't know if it worked out that way, but I passed at $90, which seems to be a pretty good price.

So maybe your statement has some truth to it.
Breyean is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2013, 01:38 PM   #37
NoleFan
DIS Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 710

Quote:
Originally Posted by DougEMG View Post
No one knows exactly how or why Disney exercises ROFR, we all just have guesses.

I beleive that Disney can repackage a large contract into a number of smaller ones, UY has to stay the same though, so it doesn't really matter what they take.

My personal thought is that ROFR is driven purely by how many people are waiting for points on the wait lists. Given that they can wait 30 days for every contract, that givens them a 30 day window to wait to see if anything better comes in during that time.

If you look at the data from the last 12 months, the average size of a contract that was ROFR was 211 points. I've seen 50 point contracts taken and I've lost a 400 point contract myself. It's probably nothing more than what the average contract size is out there, so I don't think that there is any relationship between contract size and chance of getting ROFR.

Your best chance of passing ROFR is having someone else submit the same resort and UY year with a lower price at the same time as you
Helpful, thanks for the insight.
NoleFan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2013, 02:43 PM   #38
ELMC
DIS Veteran
 
ELMC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Connecticut
Posts: 1,981

Quote:
Originally Posted by DougEMG View Post
No one knows exactly how or why Disney exercises ROFR, we all just have guesses.

I beleive that Disney can repackage a large contract into a number of smaller ones, UY has to stay the same though, so it doesn't really matter what they take.

My personal thought is that ROFR is driven purely by how many people are waiting for points on the wait lists. Given that they can wait 30 days for every contract, that givens them a 30 day window to wait to see if anything better comes in during that time.

If you look at the data from the last 12 months, the average size of a contract that was ROFR was 211 points. I've seen 50 point contracts taken and I've lost a 400 point contract myself. It's probably nothing more than what the average contract size is out there, so I don't think that there is any relationship between contract size and chance of getting ROFR.

Your best chance of passing ROFR is having someone else submit the same resort and UY year with a lower price at the same time as you
You make some very good points here. This is what bothers me...we've seen contracts pass ROFR when people have been on the wait list for fewer points in the same UY. If all DVD cared about was filling the wait list request, then there is no way that the contract should have passed. And yet it did.
__________________
ELMC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2013, 03:03 PM   #39
DougEMG
DIS Veteran
 
DougEMG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
Posts: 1,732

Quote:
Originally Posted by ELMC View Post
You make some very good points here. This is what bothers me...we've seen contracts pass ROFR when people have been on the wait list for fewer points in the same UY. If all DVD cared about was filling the wait list request, then there is no way that the contract should have passed. And yet it did.
The only way this would make sense is if either at the resale price was too low for Disney to make a reasonable profit or if they were expecting something with a better price to come along.

Another criteria could be how easy is it to purchase the contract, foreign sellers might not be as attractive to buy from because of the delay and a longer delay means the person on the wait list could change their mind.

Another criteria could be that they prefer to take contracts that have been financed through them, then they know for sure the sale won't collapse and they not get their money. Or perhaps they don't want to buy them to increase the chance of people defaulting and they get to foreclose on those contracts.


All comes back to is no one knows exactly what their criteria is, but I'm fairly confident it has to do with money.

If they really wanted to mess with people and felt fairly confident they could sell any points they picked up quickly they could try and drive resale prices up (in order to make direct appear more attractive) by taking the occasional higher priced contract.
__________________

Last edited by DougEMG; 05-08-2013 at 03:21 PM.
DougEMG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2013, 07:44 AM   #40
johnsbelt
Mouseketeer
 
johnsbelt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Kettering, OH
Posts: 83

Quote:
Originally Posted by DougEMG View Post
The only way this would make sense is if either at the resale price was too low for Disney to make a reasonable profit or if they were expecting something with a better price to come along.

Another criteria could be how easy is it to purchase the contract, foreign sellers might not be as attractive to buy from because of the delay and a longer delay means the person on the wait list could change their mind.

Another criteria could be that they prefer to take contracts that have been financed through them, then they know for sure the sale won't collapse and they not get their money. Or perhaps they don't want to buy them to increase the chance of people defaulting and they get to foreclose on those contracts.


All comes back to is no one knows exactly what their criteria is, but I'm fairly confident it has to do with money.

If they really wanted to mess with people and felt fairly confident they could sell any points they picked up quickly they could try and drive resale prices up (in order to make direct appear more attractive) by taking the occasional higher priced contract.

Doug,

Your second last paragraph is the probably the driving factor. :-)

One thing that I've casually noticed (no hard data from tracking), is that the most likely to be taken by ROFR is a loaded contract or one that is almost at the beginning of its next UY with the full amount of points (or maybe just short a few). For example, a contract with a June UY that has no 2012 points but all of its 2013 points is a prime candidate for ROFR. An August UY with no current points but all 2013 points (next UY at this time), might be a decent candidate as by the time they make a decision (30 days), then close (another 10-30), the beginning of the UY is almost here and they can repackage it and sell it in less than 30 days. A March UY that has no current points would not be considered since the points are not available until 2014. DVD has no idea on what the demand will be 10 months from now so why take a chance and tie up the money. Contracts DVD can flip quickly will be the most susceptable.

The final thought would also be that they might just be playing with us. If they would ROFR too quickly, then the mystique of the direct purchase would be blown. If it were too easy to puchase direct on the "classic" resorts, then DVD couldn't push the latest and greatest as easily. As Mel Brooks said in "History of the World, Part 1", the secret is "Merchandising".

John
johnsbelt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2013, 08:57 AM   #41
rusafee1183
DVC Owner Since 2012!
 
rusafee1183's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Posts: 3,108

Quote:
Originally Posted by DougEMG View Post
The only way this would make sense is if either at the resale price was too low for Disney to make a reasonable profit or if they were expecting something with a better price to come along.

Another criteria could be how easy is it to purchase the contract, foreign sellers might not be as attractive to buy from because of the delay and a longer delay means the person on the wait list could change their mind.

Another criteria could be that they prefer to take contracts that have been financed through them, then they know for sure the sale won't collapse and they not get their money. Or perhaps they don't want to buy them to increase the chance of people defaulting and they get to foreclose on those contracts.


All comes back to is no one knows exactly what their criteria is, but I'm fairly confident it has to do with money.

If they really wanted to mess with people and felt fairly confident they could sell any points they picked up quickly they could try and drive resale prices up (in order to make direct appear more attractive) by taking the occasional higher priced contract.
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnsbelt View Post
Doug,

Your second last paragraph is the probably the driving factor. :-)

One thing that I've casually noticed (no hard data from tracking), is that the most likely to be taken by ROFR is a loaded contract or one that is almost at the beginning of its next UY with the full amount of points (or maybe just short a few). For example, a contract with a June UY that has no 2012 points but all of its 2013 points is a prime candidate for ROFR. An August UY with no current points but all 2013 points (next UY at this time), might be a decent candidate as by the time they make a decision (30 days), then close (another 10-30), the beginning of the UY is almost here and they can repackage it and sell it in less than 30 days. A March UY that has no current points would not be considered since the points are not available until 2014. DVD has no idea on what the demand will be 10 months from now so why take a chance and tie up the money. Contracts DVD can flip quickly will be the most susceptable.

The final thought would also be that they might just be playing with us. If they would ROFR too quickly, then the mystique of the direct purchase would be blown. If it were too easy to puchase direct on the "classic" resorts, then DVD couldn't push the latest and greatest as easily. As Mel Brooks said in "History of the World, Part 1", the secret is "Merchandising".

John
These are both interesting points....

So, I have to ask. I just put in an offer for VWL. 125 points, Dec use year, all 2013 points and going forward. $79 pp, buyer pays closing and buyer/seller split MF's. The waitlist for VWL is crazy long though.

How does it look?

I know that whatever you would say would be pure speculation, but at this time I can't even begin to guess. I looked at the ROFR thread, and it looks like the only one that has been ROFR'd for VWL was back in Feb. Since then, I think 9 have passed... all with different UY, point amounts, ranging from $60 - mid $70's. Ours was the highest $pp offer.... so I was feeling OK about it. But since nothing has been ROFR'd (at least not documented) since Feb - maybe they are "due"

It's only day 3 since it went to ROFR.
__________________
Heather & Bob
rusafee1183 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2013, 10:33 AM   #42
ELMC
DIS Veteran
 
ELMC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Connecticut
Posts: 1,981

Quote:
Originally Posted by rusafee1183

These are both interesting points....

So, I have to ask. I just put in an offer for VWL. 125 points, Dec use year, all 2013 points and going forward. $79 pp, buyer pays closing and buyer/seller split MF's. The waitlist for VWL is crazy long though.

How does it look?

I know that whatever you would say would be pure speculation, but at this time I can't even begin to guess. I looked at the ROFR thread, and it looks like the only one that has been ROFR'd for VWL was back in Feb. Since then, I think 9 have passed... all with different UY, point amounts, ranging from $60 - mid $70's. Ours was the highest $pp offer.... so I was feeling OK about it. But since nothing has been ROFR'd (at least not documented) since Feb - maybe they are "due"

It's only day 3 since it went to ROFR.
Although I am not convinced that price is the only reason for ROFR, I will admit that it could be likely that there is a connection. The VWL contract you speak of that was taken by Disney was for $48 pp and had close to two years worth of banked points. That being said, if you're this stressed on day three, I don't want to think about what you'll be like on day 29.
__________________
ELMC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2013, 11:11 AM   #43
Countryrunner262
Mouseketeer
 
Countryrunner262's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: IN
Posts: 265

Just curious if anyone knows. Is SSR a resort that usually passes through, or have you noticed them being ROFR'd. I think direct the wait list is only a week or two. We have a 150 point UY June all points from '12 to current, we are waiting to hear on. We are only on day 4, so we have awhile, we were just curious.
Countryrunner262 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2013, 11:11 AM   #44
DougEMG
DIS Veteran
 
DougEMG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
Posts: 1,732

Quote:
Originally Posted by rusafee1183 View Post
These are both interesting points....

So, I have to ask. I just put in an offer for VWL. 125 points, Dec use year, all 2013 points and going forward. $79 pp, buyer pays closing and buyer/seller split MF's. The waitlist for VWL is crazy long though.

How does it look?

I know that whatever you would say would be pure speculation, but at this time I can't even begin to guess. I looked at the ROFR thread, and it looks like the only one that has been ROFR'd for VWL was back in Feb. Since then, I think 9 have passed... all with different UY, point amounts, ranging from $60 - mid $70's. Ours was the highest $pp offer.... so I was feeling OK about it. But since nothing has been ROFR'd (at least not documented) since Feb - maybe they are "due"

It's only day 3 since it went to ROFR.
With a long waitlist and if anyone wants the DEC UY then things don't look good. On the other hand, there are no current points available and I beleive Disney would have to provide a direct purchaser with the 2012 UY points since that would be the current UY for the contract.

So cross your fingers and don't worry about it since you can't do anything about it now anyway.

Good luck
__________________
DougEMG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2013, 11:16 AM   #45
DougEMG
DIS Veteran
 
DougEMG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
Posts: 1,732

Quote:
Originally Posted by Countryrunner262 View Post
Just curious if anyone knows. Is SSR a resort that usually passes through, or have you noticed them being ROFR'd. I think direct the wait list is only a week or two. We have a 150 point UY June all points from '12 to current, we are waiting to hear on. We are only on day 4, so we have awhile, we were just curious.
The first page in this thread shows what has been ROFR for SSR and this page http://disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2529191&page=19 shows what has been registered by Disney (ie ROFR).

Previously ROFR for SSR never happened, now it does occasionally, most of the time it is passing.
__________________
DougEMG is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply



Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

DVC-Resales.com | 1-800-550-6493 (Contact The Timeshare Store) | DVC Resale Listings

facebooktwittergoogle plus youtube itunesDIS Updates
GET OUR DIS UPDATES DELIVERED BY EMAIL



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:33 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

Copyright © 1997-2014, Werner Technologies, LLC. All Rights Reserved.