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Old 04-10-2013, 09:47 PM   #106
DougEMG
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...most people will not put the effort or planning into getting the most out of DVC...
I kind of took your quote here out of context, but I think it applies to a large number of owners regardless of how they use their points.

While this is a interesting exercise in seeing if and how one could make money with renting DVC points, far too many people end up losing money buying DVC because they've extended themselves too far, don't really understand what it is they bought, don't realize that the room cost is only one small part of the overall cost of their vacation, etc.
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Old 04-10-2013, 10:03 PM   #107
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I kind of took your quote here out of context, but I think it applies to a large number of owners regardless of how they use their points.

While this is a interesting exercise in seeing if and how one could make money with renting DVC points, far too many people end up losing money buying DVC because they've extended themselves too far, don't really understand what it is they bought, don't realize that the room cost is only one small part of the overall cost of their vacation, etc.
And that plays into a point I've made several times of late, that buying/owning DVC is as much about psychology as it is math, likely more so. There are ways to minimize the risks of owning & using DVC starting with UY and planning around a year out.
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Old 04-11-2013, 06:28 AM   #108
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Of course there is risk, but what about your investments that are currently earning 10%? That's guaranteed? If so, do you mind sharing, because I'd like to invest...everything I've got.
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Old 04-11-2013, 07:54 AM   #109
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Of course there is risk, but what about your investments that are currently earning 10%? That's guaranteed? If so, do you mind sharing, because I'd like to invest...everything I've got.
If you re-read my post, I said that the investments may/will change. Currently though, that is what they are earning.

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Old 04-11-2013, 08:11 AM   #110
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I was actually running some numbers today to see if selling my BWV points made since. If I got very lucky and got a high price ($80-85) then after commission, withholding tax and capital gains taxes I think I could get close to double what I paid. I'm not sure though that I want to do that as I like owning and staying at BWV. So technically I don't view my DVC as an investment cause if this was a stock that doubled on me in one year I'd be selling and taking my profits.

What to do
This is my dilemma as well with my BWV points. Do I sell them now and make 30-40% more than what I paid and then jump back in a few years down the road? My solution to this problem seems to be that I keep booking trips to BWV.

I too am looking to spend at least a month of my retirement winter down in Disney.

Stephen
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Old 04-11-2013, 10:48 AM   #111
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This is my dilemma as well with my BWV points. Do I sell them now and make 30-40% more than what I paid and then jump back in a few years down the road? My solution to this problem seems to be that I keep booking trips to BWV.

I too am looking to spend at least a month of my retirement winter down in Disney.

Stephen
I talked it over with my wife last night and we decided that we would only sell if we doubled our money, otherwise we would rather just hold on to the points and use them ourselves.

With the high transaction costs of selling (commisson, withholding tax for non-US owners and capital gains taxes) you end up having to get real lucky with your timing, buying low, selling high and then rebuying low. I'm not sure I'm that lucky
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Old 04-12-2013, 10:24 PM   #112
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I decided to buy in and made an offer today for SSR, 160 points at $57 w/ 160 banked from 2012. Wondering if you DVC vets think that's a good deal. I know prices have gone up but it seems like anything in the $50's is good.
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Old 04-13-2013, 05:06 AM   #113
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I decided to buy in and made an offer today for SSR, 160 points at $57 w/ 160 banked from 2012. Wondering if you DVC vets think that's a good deal. I know prices have gone up but it seems like anything in the $50's is good.
That sounds reasonable for that contract, good luck with ROFR and enjoy your membership.
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Old 04-15-2013, 09:43 AM   #114
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I'm 99% sure I'm going to pass buying into DVC. I just don't see it as financially a good decision. The offer I have in hand is basically $10,500 for a 160 point contract with 160 banked points from 2012. Going back to my original post...I can rent points anytime I want for $12 without buying into DVC. So I need to compare the cost of buying into DVC vs the cost of just renting points whenever I want to go to WDW. I understand there are some ancillary benefits to being a DVC member...but we're flexible in our vacation times so I don't expect much of a problem finding the resort we want by renting points.

So...I pay $10,500 and get 320 points in 2013 and 160 every year afterward. Again, let's say for the sake of comparison that I rented those points each year with a average profit of $7 per point (I'm basing this # on the last few years of maintenance fee costs vs what people have been renting point for). So on aveage I'd "profit" $1120 per year. Divide my initial cost of $10,500 by $1120 and it will take me almost 8.5 years for my "profit" to match my upfront cost (remember, I started with 320 points instead of 160).

But this also doesn't take into consideration the interest I'd make on that $10,500 if I invested it instead (which I would). If I instead take that $10,500, invest it and get a moderate 5% rate of return...I'd have $15,600 at the end of 8 years. Now my recoup time extends to almost 14 years. I don't consider taking 14 years to recoup my initial cost as a good use of my money.

The beauty of this exercise is that it's easy to compare renting vs owning. Yes, I could use my points instead of renting them....BUT...the difference between renting and owning is still the same. I'm either "saving" by owning and paying a lower maintenance fees....but my upfront cost is huge....OR....I'm "saving" by renting for a larger amt per point with zero up front cost. Either way...the #'s end up similar.

I'm gonna pass on owning DVC and just rent points. For me, it just makes more sense although I'd LOVE for someone to prove my theory wrong because I would love to be a DVC owner...I just don't think it's financially worth it.
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Old 04-15-2013, 04:35 PM   #115
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I'm 99% sure I'm going to pass buying into DVC. I just don't see it as financially a good decision. The offer I have in hand is basically $10,500 for a 160 point contract with 160 banked points from 2012. Going back to my original post...I can rent points anytime I want for $12 without buying into DVC. So I need to compare the cost of buying into DVC vs the cost of just renting points whenever I want to go to WDW. I understand there are some ancillary benefits to being a DVC member...but we're flexible in our vacation times so I don't expect much of a problem finding the resort we want by renting points.

So...I pay $10,500 and get 320 points in 2013 and 160 every year afterward. Again, let's say for the sake of comparison that I rented those points each year with a average profit of $7 per point (I'm basing this # on the last few years of maintenance fee costs vs what people have been renting point for). So on aveage I'd "profit" $1120 per year. Divide my initial cost of $10,500 by $1120 and it will take me almost 8.5 years for my "profit" to match my upfront cost (remember, I started with 320 points instead of 160).

But this also doesn't take into consideration the interest I'd make on that $10,500 if I invested it instead (which I would). If I instead take that $10,500, invest it and get a moderate 5% rate of return...I'd have $15,600 at the end of 8 years. Now my recoup time extends to almost 14 years. I don't consider taking 14 years to recoup my initial cost as a good use of my money.

The beauty of this exercise is that it's easy to compare renting vs owning. Yes, I could use my points instead of renting them....BUT...the difference between renting and owning is still the same. I'm either "saving" by owning and paying a lower maintenance fees....but my upfront cost is huge....OR....I'm "saving" by renting for a larger amt per point with zero up front cost. Either way...the #'s end up similar.

I'm gonna pass on owning DVC and just rent points. For me, it just makes more sense although I'd LOVE for someone to prove my theory wrong because I would love to be a DVC owner...I just don't think it's financially worth it.
If you're comparing DVC to DVC renting vs owning, buying will be cheaper for SSR or similar but it will limit you to the home resort and the (currently) 7 month window. You'd have more control and less risk. I'd encourage you to reconsider if you have a long term plan of staying at DVC resorts even if you buy less and then rent for the higher demand and higher cost options. If you're only looking at a few years, the numbers aren't enough to justify owning no matter what.
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Old 04-15-2013, 05:42 PM   #116
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If you're comparing DVC to DVC renting vs owning, buying will be cheaper for SSR or similar but it will limit you to the home resort and the (currently) 7 month window. You'd have more control and less risk. I'd encourage you to reconsider if you have a long term plan of staying at DVC resorts even if you buy less and then rent for the higher demand and higher cost options. If you're only looking at a few years, the numbers aren't enough to justify owning no matter what.
Dean, if a person buys their points doesn't that give them the right to book at any DVC resort and their home resort would have an 11 month window?
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Old 04-15-2013, 06:44 PM   #117
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Dean, if a person buys their points doesn't that give them the right to book at any DVC resort and their home resort would have an 11 month window?
Owners can book their home resort at 11 months from check in and all the other resorts at 7 months from check in
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Old 04-15-2013, 06:45 PM   #118
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Dean, if a person buys their points doesn't that give them the right to book at any DVC resort and their home resort would have an 11 month window?
That's correct, 11 month home and 7 months other, I didn't word it very clearly.
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Old 04-15-2013, 08:18 PM   #119
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That's correct, 11 month home and 7 months other, I didn't word it very clearly.
Thanks, I knew the 'answer' but I was concerned that a newbie would find themselves confused.
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Old 04-16-2013, 10:21 AM   #120
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I'm gonna pass on owning DVC and just rent points. For me, it just makes more sense although I'd LOVE for someone to prove my theory wrong because I would love to be a DVC owner...I just don't think it's financially worth it.
If you are looking at it purely from a numbers perspective, then renting would likely make more sense, if for no other reason than you don't know what your travel habits will be five years from now, and if you (or, more likely, your kids) become sick of Disney by then, you almost certainly would have been better off just renting.

However, for me, it was more than *just* a numbers game. I figured that buying BLT points direct from Disney at $114 per point (a couple of years ago), I would "break even" from a vacation usage standpoint after 10-12 years, depending on the discounts I could get. I basically assumed a week at the Polynesian would go up by 5-7% per year, and that I would be able to get a 25% discount off rack rates.

Since I've bought into DVC though, two things have reinforced my decision to buy: first, one bedroom villas. We are a family of 5, and even now staying in a deluxe room utilizing the sofa as a fifth bed would seem to be a nightmare. And my oldest is only 10. Imagine that in 5 years. 1BRs are a Godsend. When we get to the point where we go less often, as the kids get older, we'll probably switch to a 2BR. There's no way we would have paid for a 2BR villa with cash, so this extra level of prepaid comfort will be very much appreciated down the road.

Secondly, while I am generally pretty flexible on my travel dates, with three children, our schedules are prone to change from time to time. If all I could do was sit around and wait for discounts off of rack rates, semi-last minute changes (e.g. 1-3 months in advance) would be difficult, and they are impossible if you go the points rental route. So, the flexibility to changes your vacation is a a big plus.

Lastly, if you ever wanted to use points over a hard-to-get time, rentals are not a very good option. I used to think I would *never* go to Disney over NYE. Well, this year, we have decided to try it out. I was able to get a Theme park view at BLT for a week around NYE, but I had to work to get it. I'm not sure I could have done that with a points rental. Sure, I could have stayed at another DVC place, perhaps, and gotten in, but by having my own points will allow us to do what we *want* to do, not what we would have to settle for.

So, in addition to the somewhat objective number analysis, the big part of our DVC decision was the subjective flexibility and upgradeability of our Disney vacations.

And buying direct from Disney, I was able to split my purchase into smaller contracts, which means that if we ever need to downgrade, we can sell off a portion of what we bought, and retain the rest.
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