Originally Posted by theguda
My answer to that question is...probably. I would not be getting the "possibility" of saving money on my vacations in 7-9 years. Instead, the savings would be a certainty because there is no way maintenance fees will ever approach the cost of renting points. Also, I wouldn't be paying the $13,000...the people who rent my points would be paying it over the next 7-9 years (assuming i sold all my points).
I'm going to assume that over a long period of time the cost difference between maintenance fees and what you can get by renting your points will be about the same as today. So I expect that gap to average around $7 per point...which means maintenance fees are 60% cheaper than renting. So the real question is...is it worth to front $13,000 today...recoup that $13,000 via rental points over the next 7-9 years... to save 60% on my trips for the next 30 years? I think that's a smart financial move. My hesitation isn't the money...it's the time required to list and sell the points should I choose to do so. Thanks to everyone for all the comments. I really like to hear all te opinions.
Also, I view DVC as an investment because I see it as a vehicle to save money on my trips. To me, spending $500 on something that would otherwise cost me $1000 is the same as me buying a stock for $500 and selling it at $1000.
I get what you're saying and although I don't share your point of view, I do see it. One thing I would caution you on, however, is the assumptions you have made above that I have put in bold. First off, I completely disagree with your assertion that the savings are "a certainty" and that maintenance fees have no chance of eclipsing point rental prices. You have absolutely no way of knowing this and I think it's risky to make plans now based on this theory.
I would not be so sure that the gap between maintenance fees and point rental prices is as stable as you might think. Up until this year, point rental prices were fairly constant in the $10-11 range. Only recently have we seen renters able to get $12, and even that requires time and patience. However, that $10-11 price range was stable for a period of about five years; a period of time when maintenance fees were rising at an average rate of about 4%.
Remember, maintenance fee increases are exponential and increases in point rental prices are not. This means that the gap will close a lot faster than you think. What is happening with VB is a good predictor of what will likely happen with the other resorts, just further out in time.
As it was said earlier in the thread, we all talk about break even points and when we can vacation for just the maintenance fees, or whatever you want to call it, but that is not the goal. Instead it's a predicted benefit that might occur as we use our Disney Vacation Club for its intended purpose...taking vacations to Disney. Unless that is your main goal, I can think of many different ways to allocate your money that would have less risk, more liquidity and greater returns. The fact that we will "get our money back" is an ancillary benefit of ownership.