Originally Posted by tjkraz
The problem is there's no way to answer that with any absolutes.
You've left a lot of variables in your query. You have mentioned three different months (May, Oct, Nov) and two different room sizes (Studio, 1B.) I don't recall any specific resort mentioned and if you're looking to book more than 7 months out, that comes into play since you will presumably only have that Home resort advantage at one location.
To address some extremes, getting an AKV Standard View 1B in early May will be a lot easier than a BWV Standard Studio during the Food & Wine Fest (Oct) or Thanksgiving.
I think fixating on the Standard View rooms is a bit of a mistake. To me, it implies that you're looking to buy a very small number of points to fill an expected need. And that could be a recipe for disaster.
Bear in mind that DVC does rebalance the point charts from time to time. That means adjusting daily values to better reflect member usage; some days go up in cost while others go down. If you buy an exact number of points to fill a certain need, you may soon find yourself a few points short if DVC happens to adjust your costs upward.
A BoardWalk SV Studio is currently 104 points for a week in May. Will you still be happy if the SV isn't available when you try to book, and you can only get 5 nights in a Preferred View? Will you still be happy if DVC adjusts the points and it costs 108 points for that May week?
IMO, the safer approach is to at least buy enough points for one of the more plentiful views--Pool/Garden at BWV or Lake View at BLT. And if you happen to snag a Standard View, regard it as a bonus which allows you to extend your trip or bank some points for future use.
And realize that if you CANNOT change your booking pattern and start making reservations more than 5 months out, options will be much more limited.
This may sound like "doom and gloom" to some extent, but I think it's important to have realistic expectations. The last thing you need is a bunch of sycophants saying "DVC is great...buy now and you'll never have problems getting what you want!"
It is certainly POSSIBLE to find a BWV Standard 1B available at 5 months for May. But I would not buy with the expectation that such a room will be available year-after-year.
I agree; and upon reading the OP's questions; it occurred to me that this was the actual problem. I would never buy the minimal amount of points you need; if you think that you would experience frustration over how far out you can book; this would really seal the disappointment.