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After a dozen years and many trips, we are still cancellation-free. Of course, given the nature of emergencies that doesn't mean our next trip might not have to be cancelled at the last minute.
I'm not a conservative planner and will gleefully schedule trips during the last month of my use year simply because I want to. If things happen, they happen.
So far the devil-may-care vacation planning style has served me well though. Having said that, I realize this laissez-faire attitude isn't for everyone, but given the relatively small risk and the worst possible outcome - losing points - I'm comfortable with my strategy (which is no strategy at all, lol!)
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