10-year cost of the 7 resorts - are BLT/VWL/BCV worth their much higher cost?

[crisi]

I agree with ten as the calculation horizon. If you can make the money work within ten years, with no planned resale value, its a good financial risk. If you sell after ten and make some money - or if it continues to work for another 35 years for your family - that's all gravy.

But financial sense is just one component. DVC is a luxury purchase. Vacations at Disney are a luxury. If you can afford to buy direct at BLT and doing that RIGHT NOW is worth the money, the financial calculations aren't important. If BCV delights you and you don't care about more years for less money at SSR, buy BCV. The "if you can afford it" is important, but once you can afford it, it doesn't make much difference if you buy your happiness through a direct Grand Floridian Villas purchase or a closet of Jimmy Choo shoes.

[tjkraz]

Originally Posted by crisi

I agree with ten as the calculation horizon. If you can make the money work within ten years, with no planned resale value, its a good financial risk. If you sell after ten and make some money - or if it continues to work for another 35 years for your family - that's all gravy.

In and of itself, I don't disagree with the 10 year figure. What sets off alarm bells for me is the idea that OP projects going from 2 trips in 3 years to 3 trips per year for the next 10.

[ldo]

my advice to new purchasers: decide how many points you need for your trip plans for 1 year and then cut that # in 1/2 and buy for every other year--and, if you can, buy when you can get the prior year's points as well--such as UY of June (buy thru May to get the prior UY points). Then with banking and borrowing, you can actually get annual vacations for the next 2 years, if you strategize. That is enough time to decide if you want a bigger commitment to DVC and whether the home resort you picked is working out for you--or if you want to get a different home resort if you are adding more points--as long as your contract has the same UY, you can list all under the same master contract.
also, as kids get older, vacation habits can change. EOY give the flex to do other things without feeling you "have" to use your DVc points.

[cjaime12]

I own at BLT and SSR, and I purchased all my points through DVC. We love BLT, fireworks on the roof is awesome, monorail, and view of MK is great. So, we wanted to add more points at BLT, but it is too expensive to buy at today's price point from DVC. So, we are adding on by buying resale. You can save a good amount of money by buying resale.

I suggest, if you know you want BLT to be your home resort, buy resale. FYI, resale purchases can not be used for cruises. But, all DVC resorts are fare game if you purchase resale.

I have a hard time telling people to buy DVC at today's price point. But, if you are going to buy from DVC directly I would buy the most affordable home resort and try out for few years. This way you can try different resorts. After, trying different resorts, now you can make a good decision about spending that extra money on a resort like BLT. Hope this was helpful.

[crisi]

Originally Posted by tjkraz

In and of itself, I don't disagree with the 10 year figure. What sets off alarm bells for me is the idea that OP projects going from 2 trips in 3 years to 3 trips per year for the next 10.

THAT does set off alarms.

Getting three trips a year to Disney when your kids are young seems doable. But a three year old will be thirteen in ten years, and three trips a year to WDW with a thirteen year old isn't so doable - unless you live close. The moment kids hit schoolage, their lives get so busy and unless you homeschool, outside of your control.

[Jasonkat]

Thanks for all the replies, its been very informative.

Originally Posted by kerickson

DVC is a 50year contract, why would you view it as a 10yr or even 30 committment?

My professional career is in the finance/accounting field. Part of the training in this area of study is learning how to value future cash flows. In my years of classes in finance Ive learned that emphasis needs to be put on the immediate future because the long term future is unknowable. If you were going to ask me to value a share of Apple stock Id put the most emphasis on what I think Apple will do the next five or ten years, not what they will do 25 years from now.

So for DVC its the same thing, Im using the immediate and predictable future rather than the unpredictable long term future. If DVC is a good buy (or in this case buying resort A over resort B is a good decision) for the next ten years then I can assume it will be even better after 10 years.

Originally Posted by JimMIA

I wonder if there isn't a fundamental error in these "points needed" calculations. It just doesn't seem rational that you'd pay $10 more per point AND pay higher dues and come out with a lower total cost.

If you need 340 pts for X days at AKV and 440 points for X days at SSR then you could pay more per point for AKV up front and for dues and still cost less because you need 20% fewer points. (5.44 X 340 < 4.73 X 440)

Originally Posted by DVCanadian

I have a hard time believing that you need more than a 100 more points SSR vs AK.

I got the points from DVC news.com and I took the lowest points needed for a one bedroom

Heres my math on how I came up with the point totals needed

Resort Memorial Day; Summer; Labor Day; total
Animal Kingdom 26*2+23 ; 188; 26*2+19; 334
Old Key West 32*2+27; 222; 32*2+21; 398
Boardwalk Villas 33*2+28 ; 220; 33*2+20; 400
Saratoga Springs 36*2+31; 241; 36*2+24 ; 440
Bay Lake Tower 40*2+34 ; 268; 40*2+26; 488
Beach Club 40*2+35 ; 269 ; 40*2+27; 491
Wilderness Lodge 40*2+35; 271; 40*2+28; 494

Originally Posted by DVCanadian

I think the OP should use $50 per point for Saratoga springs, not $60.

The price per point was estimated from fidelity and time share store current for-sale listings. While my price point may not be perfect I believe my final result is accurate: that BLT, WLV and BCV cost significantly more over ten years than AKV, BWV, OKW, and SSR for the same vacation time at Disneyworld. So Im trying to figure out if its worth the added cost. If I use $50 for SSR rather than $60 it wont change my result: SSR will still be cheaper over 10 years than BLT/BCV/VWL. Whether SSR is cheaper than AK,OKW, or BWV is irrelevant. I dont care about the cost difference of 41,000 vs 48,000; I care about the cost difference of 41,000 vs 64,000.

Originally Posted by tjkraz

What sets off alarm bells for me is the idea that OP projects going from 2 trips in 3 years to 3 trips per year for the next 10.

A couple people brought that up so heres the situation. My wife and I got married right out of college in 1999 and we spent the next 12 years focused on our careers. We took very few vacations in the early years and none later on (we took no vacations between 2004 and 2009; instead we used our vacation time to study for professional exams, visit business schools, that type of thing). In 2010 we took a vacation to WDW after I graduated from business school. In 2011 we used our vacation time to go to Korea to get our daughter (adoption) and stay home with her when we got back rather than going to work right away. We went to WDW with her on Columbus day weekend 2011 as a mini-vacation. In Feb 2012 we had a baby and used our vacation time to stay home with him after he was born. The reason we didnt take long WDW vacations in 2011 or 2012 is because we had no more vacation time to use after staying home with our babies.

The drastic change from few vacations in the past to 3 per year in the future is that from here on out we will have no more babies (so no need for paternity/maternity leave) and our careers are set (no more days off for career reasons) which means we can use our vacation time for...vacation (imagine that). We both work for the government so we have a ton of time off (5 weeks per year) and we make enough money (lets just say Obama thinks we're millionaires or billionaires even though we're a family of four living in a 900 sq ft apartment). So we have excess time off and excess cash and we are ready to start enjoying our life. Hence: 3 vacations to WDW per year until our kids start telling us they're bored of it, then well only do two vacations per year.

[Dean]

Originally Posted by Jasonkat

I’m using the immediate and predictable future rather than the unpredictable long term future. If DVC is a good buy (or in this case buying resort A over resort B is a good decision) for the next ten years then I can assume it will be even better after 10 years.

I think using 10 years is fine and actually preferable, but equating it to a stock and investment is not. IMO, you need to look at it for 10 years as it the resort closed and you had nothing. The idea that DVC will be an even better option 10 years from now is overly optimistic. Also using specialty views like standard at BWV or value at AKV is not realistic unless you reserve at 11 months out which means you have to own there. Plus, as I pointed out before, the 1 BR returns the lowest value on a $$$ basis of all DVC options and is often more expensive than just paying cash. It seems you're caught up in the emotions at this point planning the trips you are with so little background. I'd suggest you slow down, buy less and give DVC a try. There are always options to supplement your points and you can buy more later if it does work out. Plus, as someone else noted, you likely won't continue these trips as planned as the kids are older with activities and other interests.

[Jasonkat]

Originally Posted by Dean

Also using specialty views like standard at BWV or value at AKV is not realistic unless you reserve at 11 months out which means you have to own there. Plus, as I pointed out before, the 1 BR returns the lowest value on a $$$ basis of all DVC options and is often more expensive than just paying cash.

As I said up front: my calculations were based on apples-to-apples for all the resorts. So I choose the middle option (one bedroom is the middle option of the studio-one bedroom-2 bedroom choices) and the lowest point in that category and I assumed that I would only stay at that one resort forever. So maybe 1 br returns the lowest value but I don't care about that, I only care about how the 7 resorts relate to each other vis-a-vis 10-year cost (hence, the title of the thread). I could've chosen the most expensive studio at each resort or the middle value 2 bedroom at each resort and I'd probably have a fairly similar result (BLT/VWL/BCV are all more expensive over ten years than AKL/OKW/SSR/BWV).

[Dean]

Originally Posted by Jasonkat

As I said up front: my calculations were based on apples-to-apples for all the resorts. So I choose the middle option (one bedroom is the middle option of the studio-one bedroom-2 bedroom choices) and the lowest point in that category and I assumed that I would only stay at that one resort forever. So maybe 1 br returns the lowest value but I don't care about that, I only care about how the 7 resorts relate to each other vis-a-vis 10-year cost (hence, the title of the thread). I could've chosen the most expensive studio at each resort or the middle value 2 bedroom at each resort and I'd probably have a fairly similar result (BLT/VWL/BCV are all more expensive over ten years than AKL/OKW/SSR/BWV).

The price difference compared reasonably between BWV, BCV & VWL should be minimal because you have do ignore the standard view unless you buy there and reserve that option consistently at or near 11 months out, same for value at AKV or standard at BLT. The other difference is the intrinsic value at 10 years if you did decide to sell will be different. The 2042 resorts will be less than the rest of the on property resorts. BLT is ameliorated a little because of the lower dues though I don't think the difference will remain as great as it has been but the dues should continue to be favorable to the rest. IMO, only comparing the resorts to each other bypasses the most important question, whether buying at all makes sense for you. I don't believe it does at this point from what I've seen so far. From a cost/value/usage standpoint, SSR will be the cheapest overall if you give any value to the difference in expiration and you really should at least some. I'd count the buy in costs only to 10 years but the value estimated AT 10 years personally. I think you'll be a lot better off going more slowly and either waiting to buy in or buying less and trying it out a few trips.

[ELMC]

Originally Posted by Jasonkat

A couple people brought that up so heres the situation. My wife and I got married right out of college in 1999 and we spent the next 12 years focused on our careers. We took very few vacations in the early years and none later on (we took no vacations between 2004 and 2009; instead we used our vacation time to study for professional exams, visit business schools, that type of thing). In 2010 we took a vacation to WDW after I graduated from business school. In 2011 we used our vacation time to go to Korea to get our daughter (adoption) and stay home with her when we got back rather than going to work right away. We went to WDW with her on Columbus day weekend 2011 as a mini-vacation. In Feb 2012 we had a baby and used our vacation time to stay home with him after he was born. The reason we didnt take long WDW vacations in 2011 or 2012 is because we had no more vacation time to use after staying home with our babies.

The drastic change from few vacations in the past to 3 per year in the future is that from here on out we will have no more babies (so no need for paternity/maternity leave) and our careers are set (no more days off for career reasons) which means we can use our vacation time for...vacation (imagine that). We both work for the government so we have a ton of time off (5 weeks per year) and we make enough money (lets just say Obama thinks we're millionaires or billionaires even though we're a family of four living in a 900 sq ft apartment). So we have excess time off and excess cash and we are ready to start enjoying our life. Hence: 3 vacations to WDW per year until our kids start telling us they're bored of it, then well only do two vacations per year.

I think you might feel that people are arguing with you, doubting your sincerity, or trying to nitpick the information you have provided. Please know that that's not the case. Many posters on this thread have been here a long time. They've been going to Disney for a long time. They've seen and heard just about everything. The reason why they are challenging you is because you are not the first person to post the things that you have posted and, in similar situations in the past, it did not work out. That's not to say that you won't all of a sudden become a huge Disney person or that you won't vacation there three times a year. You might, and that would be great. But that's something that's a little hard to predict. Analysis is great, but at some point it needs to move from the theoretical to the practical. You can still go to Disney three times a year even if you don't buy DVC, so it might be good to get more experience before making such a large commitment. Good luck with whatever you decide.

[crisi]

That sounds really familiar. My husband and I didn't have kids until we'd been out of college more than a decade. Our first is Korean, our second is bio. I'm even in the Accounting field. I had about that much time off until last year when I switched firms. We also make a lot of money.

We weren't huge vacation people - or Disney people - pre kids - but always enjoyed it. However, we had busy careers and money to save, and vacation took a back seat. With little kids, Disney was an easy vacation and for a number of years, it was our focus vacation.

Here is what we discovered - quickly we wanted more for our kids than just Disney vacations - they've been to Mexico, the Caribbean, Europe, California, Washington DC, Hawaii - they are twelve and thirteen now. We generally take three vacations a year - one fairly local with friends, and two sort of extravagant. We only go to Disney every other year - and have for years.

When the kids were younger, we did two Disney cruises on cash - which was great. But now they prefer an all inclusive in Mexico or the beach in Hawaii to a cruise. Ask them where they want to go, and my daughter wants London, Paris and Greece. My son wants Hawaii again, or Costa Rica. And that happened faster than you are projecting.

Some families really are Disney families - ours really never has been. We've enjoyed our Disney vacations, but they only form a small part of our family vacation portfolio.

[Jasonkat]

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[Dean]

Nice post from someone who has had 5 posts total and all on this one thread. Clearly you're an instant expert already. Good luck with your decision.

[DougEMG]

Originally Posted by Jasonkat

So here is what I'm having trouble with: is it really worth $20,000 to have Beach Club/Wilderness/Bay Lake as the home resort vs Animal/OKW? The main advantage I see with Wilderness and Bay Lake is the shortness of time to get to MK vs Animal/OKW. But is it worth $20,00 to save 30 minutes per trip to MK? Beach club costs $11,000 more than Boardwalk, is SAB really worth $11,000 (since location is the same SAB appears to be the big difference between the two)?

Clearly it is worth $23,000 to some people to be members of BLT vs members of AKL or else the point cost at the resale level would adjust and the 10-year cost would be equivalent for all the resorts (or at least there would be less variation). I'm not one to doubt the Free Market so there are clearly good reasons that the 7 resorts are priced the way they are.

I want to hear from those of you who bought at BCV/BLT/VWL. What convinced you that becoming a member here was worth the additional cost? In hindsight are you happy with your decision or do you wish you'd gone with one of the 4 cheaper alternatives?

You've done the financial analysis and I basically agree with how you have split up the resorts. Owning SSR/OKW/BWV/AKV is going to be cheaper than owning BCV/BLT/VWL over a 10 year period. SSR is the best purely financial deal by far.

Once you get out of the financial side of things, it is pretty much a personal preference. So you are going to have lots of BLT/BCV/VWL owners tell you that they think the extra costs is well worth it, so I don't think that is going to help you make your decision. At the end of the day you need to decide if the extra money is worth it for yourself. What is the balance between price and location that makes you happy?

If you can't decide, a safe option would be to buy half your points at SSR, give DVC a try and see how easy it is to book at different resorts, then if you find you have a favorite resort and need the 11 month booking window look into buying more points there.

For myself, while I like the idea of staying at BLT and walking to MK, I certainly would not buy there as it cost to much. I even have a hard time booking there at the 7 month mark because of the high point cost as compared to a BWV standard view room. But that's just me.


Best of luck with your decision.

[DizBub]

Originally Posted by Jasonkat

I want to hear from those of you who bought at BCV/BLT/VWL. What convinced you that becoming a member here was worth the additional cost? In hindsight are you happy with your decision or do you wish you'd gone with one of the 4 cheaper alternatives?

We are BLT and BCV owners. Like many others we bought BLT before we knew anything about resales. Luckily, we bought in 2009 and 2010 before the prices went sky high. Bought BCV resale earlier this year to secure at 11 months. Epcot is our favorite park. We tend to go in late Sept/early Oct. For next year I booked an 11 night split stay at both BLT and BCV in late Sept. I have to say that we don't regret the decision to buy at either resort.

Due to wanting to go more often and on relatively short notice we have learned to love, love, love SSR and OKW.