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Old 11-12-2012, 09:55 AM   #1
cewait
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Race temps from 98 - 2012

Not to create any panic but here are the weather conditions seen since 1998. We are roughly 60 days out so it is a good idea to think through your plans for dealing with Race Morning Weather.

The low roughly equates to race start or about an hour into the race. The Mean is a good guess of the finish temps for the full and the half finish temps somewhere between the Mean and the Low. (example, if the half start was 40 and the mean was 50, estimate the half finish at 45 - not scientific, but a good guess) Note that the races were held as one in 2005 and earlier, so only one observation.

So what does this mean.....

The race temps at the start have ranged from a balmy 67F down to a 27F. Finish temps have ranged from around 75F down to less than 35F. For planning purposes... The average temperature gain through the race is about 12F....

Date -------------HI------LO------Mean------Rain
---------------------------------------------------------------
1/7/2012-Half---74------44--------59---------0
1/8/2012-Full---77------48--------62----------0
1/8/2011-Half---72------48--------60---------0
1/9/2011-Full ---66------42--------54--------0
1/9/2010-Half---41------31--------35--------Sleet!
1/10/2010-Full --45------27--------35--------0
1/10/2009-Half--73------48--------60--------0
1/11/2009-Full --73------51--------62--------(Post Race)
1/12/2008-Half--81------61--------69--------0
1/13/2008-Full --76------58--------66--------0
1/6/2007-Half---83------67--------75--------0
1/7/2007-Full ---84------63--------74--------0
1/7/2006-Half---56------40--------48--------0
1/8/2006-Full ---66------34--------50--------0
1/9/2005---------81------57--------69--------0
1/11/2004-------64-------39-------52--------0
1/12/2003-------62-------44-------53--------0
1/6/2002--------71-------51-------61--------rain
1/7/2001--------70-------31-------51--------0
1/8/2000--------78-------61-------70--------0
1/10/1999-------60-------45-------53--------0
1/11/1998-------70-------47-------59--------0
--------------------------------------------------------
Averages--------69-------47-------58
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Old 11-12-2012, 10:12 AM   #2
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I never realized it, but the lo has either been below freezing or above 60 for every Disney 1/2 or full that I've done. I'd take the below freezing over the above 60 any day!
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Old 11-12-2012, 11:26 AM   #3
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Thanks for sharing that, Coach. More incentive to run faster before the temps warm up I guess. Would be interesting to see what time the temperature was at the highest. This year didn't seem great for the Marathon. I am pushing for the colder temperatures!
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Old 11-12-2012, 11:33 AM   #4
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Just a reminder to over pack. I also had the good fortune of running in 2010, and did not bring tights. Don't expect to fund much of a selection at the expo.

I'm packing for 20-70 degrees.

The good news is that rain is rare and the mean of 47-58 is almost ideal. My half this last Saturday was that. Started in the high 40s and finished in the high 50s. Felt ideal in regular shorts and shirt with arm warmers.
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Old 11-12-2012, 12:39 PM   #5
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I have a couple crash bags that I used to keep ready when I was in a position that had to respond when the phone rang... night, day, rain, shine hot, cold....

I have one of these bags packed with my travelling marathon gear. It has 2 sets of throw down flannel warm-ups (sweatshirt and pants) with long seams cut to allow removal with shoes on, a 1980's florescent blue wind suit, head gear, gloves, a couple trash sacks and duct tape. Oh, there are also a couple long sleeved throw down tees for race morning also.

To this I add my normal gear that is tweaked for expected weather including shorts, singlet, sleeved tech shirt socks shoes, tights, number belt, etc....

I have been surprised more than once since coming to WDWM. 2007 was the worst surprise when the temps spiked up unexpectedly in the last couple days prior to the race. It totally caught the race off guard. I was not as surprised by 2010, but it was the first time that I really felt like I needed the flannel sweats… The ones I left at WDW that year were well over 10 years old, one set of bottoms were from college. I miss those sweats

The bottom line is that the weather can and will change. Most folks have a comfort range but when you are standing outside, in the dark, with a slight breeze and higher humidity, those temp ranges seem to shift.
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Old 11-12-2012, 04:27 PM   #6
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Thanks for this.
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Old 11-12-2012, 05:09 PM   #7
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Old 11-16-2012, 08:08 AM   #8
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I have to admit, I am VERY nervous about the weather this January. We've had some unseasonably cooler weather happening now (and have been since October) here in Central Florida, and the last time this happened, we had that crazy cold spell in January. I don't do well in cooler weather.

Stupid Florida blood.
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Old 11-16-2012, 09:13 AM   #9
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I live on the Gulf coast and hate really cold temps, but I do prefer the lower 40's upper 30's for race start. It stinks waiting around in those temps but the fact that one does not need to worry about slowing up due to really warm temps supersedes the discomfort. Even with these start temps, I will be in short sleeves or sleeveless by mile 5-10.
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Old 11-16-2012, 10:20 AM   #10
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Yeah, cold temps can be manageable by adding layers. I was trying for a marathon PR in 2010, but ended up a couple minutes short. Part of the reason was personal and not weather related, but part was due to the cold. Not to be too gross, but I had a lot of sinus drainage, which was distracting and also made it difficult to consume shot bloks. I'm sure the extra layers contributed to a few seconds too. BUT, I was only a few minutes off my PR. If it had been warm I would have been 15-20 minutes slower.

My hope is 47 at the start and 57 at the finish. That would be just about perfect. My soon to be old half marathon PR was at DL where starting temp was 64 and finish was probably 68 or so--a bit too warm for optimal running.
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