Originally Posted by lockedoutlogic
No...this is where the bottom falls out of your argument.
WDW has always "kept people from going to universal"...or to be more specific - they have either:
A. kept them away in the first place
B. managed to get people to extend their stays and in many cases STAY LONGER on WDW property than they normally would have even if they go to universal or seaworld or (now) legoland.
This is not conjecture - its the documented business history of Orlando.
WDW has benefited (aka..higher attendance and higher profits) from both: A. the opening of Universal in 1989-90 and the opening of IOA in 99...
and indeed, there's no indication at this point that they - WDW - have suffered at all from the Harry Potter expansion at IOA.
It's entirely possible - check that..."likely" - that the potter expansion has actually helped WDW with their attendance and earnings in some of the worst travel years in the history of orlando.
Islands of adventure experienced a whopping jump to 7.5 million visitors in 2011....great news for them and orlando as a whole...
BUT...they had experienced a 1 million visitor shortfall between 2007-2008...and were still off their "peak" number of close to 6.8 million in (2003) by about 1.3 million.
Universal studios had experienced a less severe drop...but still was not advancing.
So...here we are now...6.0 million annual for Studios...an impressive 7.6 for IOA...for the combination of 13.5 for the two...pretty good huh?
except for two things:
1. Universal Studios Orlando once drew 6.9 million (i think that was the 03 or 04 number)...which means that they are being pilfered at one gate to the tune of 1 million ticks...guess who's doing that? i'll give you a hint: look for the wand. that is textbook park cannibalization that we often discuss around here.
2. There's just no way to state this any clearer: that 13.5 million combo number is utterly destroyed by the two "little" guys over in lake buena vista...almost 19.5 million visits to DHS/AK...and even if it is some parkhopping effect (though not as much as people probably assume)...6 million is no small number. It's not close without even mentioning the big dogs.
URO has rebounded from a significant drop due to potter....WDW has not declined...at all...in that time frame. With many economic indicators in the toilet. This is being dismissed in this conversation and should not be. They are still bullet proof...as it stands...today. That may not always be so - but it can't be argued today. The numbers don't support it.
Lots of people HAVE stayed away from WDW the last 4 years due to their consistently rising prices and lack of money in ma an pop's bank accounts. Yet their numbers are not dropping. They are just replacing some new for some of the old...the formula is still working. As evidenced by the earnings reports. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
I guess we're back to square one here: you have to understand a few things to look at the situation in the florida market properly:
1. WDW is has enjoyed the lions share of the patronage and by doing so exerts controlling interest over everything that has transpired.
2. WDW sucks way more money out of the competitors than they out of it. That is a fact since day one. That's putting it simply - the deeper take is that behind the board room doors - they are both fine with each other...because they've all made more money this way.
3. Since WDW does command the majority market (good comparisons that people don't fully recognize is that UPS controls 80% of the market to Fedex's 15 and Coke 60-70% to Pepsi's 20-30...yet most people consider them "equal competitors"...there are countless others) Capital Investment is up to them and them alone...to determine if its valid or necessary. And it has to do with statistics, trends, and longterm forecasting...not the threat of butter beer or the need for rides to tie to cars merchandise.
And just a final couple of quips...
It has been mentioned that WDW is having a hard time drawing customers on several occasions here. That is in the running for perhaps the most incorrect statement in modern history. An argument can't be based on that.
The second is that somehow cars land will pay for itself in extra days/ trips and or merchandise.
Not true...WDW tracks average stay/ per night expenditure as if its gold...because its how they guess (almost to the nickel) how much gold they're going to make. And that first number (the most important one) is butted up against the magic 7 day mark. That is a cultural barrier that neither mickey mouse nor buzz lightyear can climb over. On average, the total vacation time is not going to move into the 8,9,10 day range where huge capital construction would be profitable. They saw that they hit their own glass ceiling at AK and have not spent the big bucks since...because there is no profit in it.
And what of this idea that WDW doesn't sell cars stuff and needs a "land" to do that? Have you been there recently? The reality is that they are still going to outsell cars stuff over the park with the cars stuff. Any indication that WDW isn't fully maximizing ALL disney characters in merchandise is off base...they have made a science out of it. It's a public company...its in the annual reports. Disneyland is a more regional market that visits with more frequency...WDW is a tourist audience that go for 7 days on average and are a captive audience within a 40 square mile compound of giftshops...hmmm...let me think about this one.
To be perfectly honest with you, I stopped reading after you said my argument didn't hold water.
I decided to visit this board and post here because I thought it might be fun, you're taking this "argument" and going so far with it that it's almost like a political debate, this is no fun at all.
I'm not going to provide a novel long response, the issue isn't that important to me.
But it's ok to have a different opinion.
It's ok to have an opinion that Cars Land would be a great addition, for my family it's a win. Cars Land would work perfect for us, and to be quite honest with you, if I flew my family to CA, we would only spend 2 or 3 days at Disneyland and do other things in CA. We've never been to CA, so if we made the journey over there, then we are going to be doing a lot of non Disney stuff as well. My budget doesn't allow me to go to both WDW and DLR in one year.
If we are going to WDW yes there is enough at WDW to stay there the entire week, however Universal has added and very well could be adding a lot more things that will entice us to visit their park. So what does that do? It takes 2 to 3 days away from our WDW vacation, so less money for Disney. If you dont add things and change them, then things do get stale and people will go other places.
Stay tuned with what Universal is doing, there's a lot going on there.