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Old 08-06-2012, 10:32 AM   #91
ChipnDale79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pilferk View Post
So..couple questions:

Do you currently have any WDW trips planned?
Tentavely yes we do, but not until Dec of 2013 (way too far out), we are expecting our 2nd son any day now (due date is actually tomorrow), so we've had to put our Disney trips on hold for a little bit.

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Are you saying you'd visit more frequently, and spend more money, than you do now if there was a Cars land? Not just "now" (as in, the year it opened), but in the future?
Yes I am, currently I have a 1 year old son and as I noted above, one due tomorrow, so if this were to open as rumored, it would be perfect for our family. So yes, we'd probably plan more trips or visit more often. So if we are in the minority, then so be it. I personally love the idea.
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Old 08-06-2012, 10:35 AM   #92
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I would think Disney would stand to make more $$ with unique attractions on the East and West Coasts... A lot of folks who might never have considered going to Disneyland are interested now with Cars Land at DCA... What's so wrong about something unique on the East Coast?
Sort of a tangent, but...Nothing is wrong with it.

I'm just not sure they need it. Need it as in it would be worth the significant financial investment required to get it.

Ultimately, the goal for WDW is to draw more people and get them to spend more money.

WDW, right now, is pretty much at the limit in terms of LOS...there just isn't any more vacation time for them to "consume". DLR still has wiggle room there, so that gives the big capital expenditures more "bang for the buck"...but that's off topic.

"Unique attractions" are great...and WDW has plenty of them. I'm not sure ONE more is going to tip the scale to convince Ma and Pa Jones that it's time to load up the family truckster and head to Orlando. I'm not sure there is a LOT more Disney can do, actually, in terms of building rides/attractions, that are going to convince people who have never gone, and wouldn't have planned a trip anyway, to go.

WDW, IMHO, needs to refresh, more than build out. You want to keep the people who come every year continuing to come and spend money. And you want to have a nice PR campaign that keeps potential first timers (all those young families) and "new" entrants into your target demos exposed to your product (which is something FLE DOES do). IMHO, They don't need "decision maker" type builds. The sum total of the resort already provides those.
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Old 08-06-2012, 10:35 AM   #93
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I agree, it's all speculation. But that's rather the point.

Given the history....you can see clear why "I saw it at WDI" isn't going to be compelling reasoning when it comes to convincing people that it's ACTUALLY going to be built. Because there have been similar reports, and people have had similar experiences (and heard similar things from Imagineers) concerning projects that never got built, or were radically different than the "original" exposure to them. There is far too much "blue sky" planning that goes on within WDI, and the Imagineers (bless them) tend to get a tad overexcited by the stuff they're working on. They think EVERYTHING (well, not everything, but a LOT) is going to be built..when the reality is that only a fraction of it gets greenlighted for build out by the bean counters.

Again, I harken back to my tour through a WDI facility while AK was being built. Those employees were SURE that Beastly Kingdom was being built. They were happy to share limited stories and information about that area. There was art, modeling, etc...all related to BK.

It never got built. And it's not the first thing, nor the last thing, that has played out that way.

I'm not trying to sway you from your opinion or poo poo what you saw and heard.

But I'm trying to explain to you why that's not going to be enough to sway most of the veteran posters around the DIS. It's not YOUR credibility....it's THEIRS (WDI's). They're better than the bus drivers..but not by as much as you'd want them to be. I'm also trying to provide you with a bit of context in which to place all this.

Take it or leave it...your choice.
Well said.

WDI has done some amazing work over the years...most of it never going beyond the paper it was drawn on. Some projects progress and evolve for months and years only to be killed at the 11th hour. The Monster's Inc coaster at DHS isn't a thing of legend...it was going to happen! Then it didn't happen.

Unfortunately WDI designs mean little without approval from the right combination of Iger / Staggs / Rasulo / Crofton et al. And even then everything is subject to years of scrutiny and potential revision.
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Old 08-06-2012, 10:39 AM   #94
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I really hope this doesn't happen finally DCA has something very special and very unique to all parks and now it's going to be copied to me that makes it lose a lot of Disney magic
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Old 08-06-2012, 10:41 AM   #95
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Originally Posted by ChipnDale79 View Post
Tentavely yes we do, but not until Dec of 2013 (way too far out), we are expecting our 2nd son any day now (due date is actually tomorrow), so we've had to put our Disney trips on hold for a little bit.

Yes I am, currently I have a 1 year old son and as I noted above one due tomorrow, so if this were to open as rumored, it would be perfect for our family. So yes, we'd probably plan more trips or visit more often. So if we are in the minority, then so be it. I personally love the idea.
The problem is this:

You just answered "yes" to the first question.

Which means the answer to the second doesn't concern Disney in the slightest...because the proof is in the pudding. You're already planning a trip in 2013..and (as you say, yourself) circumstances wouldn't bring you down there any quicker than that.

People keep coming back, now. Why spend more money to get the same result.

And....I love the idea, too. As a guest/consumer. It would be GREAT to have Cars Land at WDW. But....every guest/consumer is going to like the idea of more content to consume for the same price they're paying now. Right?

The more important question, when determining likelihood, is "Can Disney see a significant increase in the money they take in and the profits they make by doing it". NOT just WDW..but Disney as a whole.
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Old 08-06-2012, 10:44 AM   #96
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Originally Posted by ChipnDale79 View Post
No, I'm not willing to spend the money to fly 4 people from NC to CA just for Cars Land, air fare isnt cheap. But would it extend my stay or may keep my family from going to Universal while in Orlando, yeah probably.

I think the point was:

Spend more on air fare vs spend more at WDW....it's close to zero sum equation.

Or it would need to be, to make it be worth WDW's while to build Cars Land.
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Old 08-06-2012, 10:50 AM   #97
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Originally Posted by pilferk View Post
The problem is this:

You just answered "yes" to the first question.

Which means the answer to the second doesn't concern Disney in the slightest...because the proof is in the pudding. You're already planning a trip in 2013..and (as you say, yourself) circumstances wouldn't bring you down there any quicker than that.

People keep coming back, now. Why spend more money to get the same result.

And....I love the idea, too. As a guest/consumer. It would be GREAT to have Cars Land at WDW. But....every guest/consumer is going to like the idea of more content to consume for the same price they're paying now. Right?

The more important question, when determining likelihood, is "Can Disney see a significant increase in the money they take in and the profits they make by doing it". NOT just WDW..but Disney as a whole.
How is Disney going to keep people from going to Universal though? It was pretty easy in the past, but with what Universal is doing now, how are they going to keep people on WDW property?

Sure it might not attract more people, but they've got to also to find a way to keep the people that are coming, from heading up I4 and going to Universal.

With the increase in attendance at IoA, a 2nd planned Harry Potter land at Universal, and a Transformers ride being built, WDW is going to have to do something to keep those people on their property.
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Old 08-06-2012, 10:59 AM   #98
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How is Disney going to keep people from going to Universal though? It was pretty easy in the past, but with what Universal is doing now, how are they going to keep people on WDW property?

Sure it might not attract more people, but they've got to also to find a way to keep the people that are coming, from heading up I4 and going to Universal.
They're doing it now. They do it by providing things like free dining (or the DDP in general), Magicl Express, and other tidbits to keep tourists on property (aka held captive).

The attendance at IOA has come up...but WDW park attendance has not dropped..never mind dropped by the same margin.

Quote:
With the increase in attendance at IoA, a 2nd planned Harry Potter land at Universal, and a Transformers ride being built, WDW is going to have to do something to keep those people on their property.
Universal has to prove they can make a dent, first. They haven't...so Disney has no reason to be reactionary (beyond FLE). They can continue to do exactly what they're doing right now...until they see a reason to change course.

My worry, were I Disney, would be more related to Universal building those value rooms. THAT might get Disney thinking...but I doubt it would spur them to a 3/4 of a billion investment. That would be overkill.

FYI: I haven't heard anything official about the 2nd HP land (rumors..though some people get confused about USH HP land that's coming) or Transformers (I'm not convinced, seeing the work permits, that the mods on the warehouse are Transformers....we'll see).
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Old 08-06-2012, 11:05 AM   #99
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The attendance at IOA has come up...but WDW park attendance has not dropped..never mind dropped by the same margin.
I don't have the numbers in front of me, but i have heard attendance is up 25% each year the past 2 years at IoA. I know that's only 2 years, but it'll be interesting to see where that levels off and when it does level off, how long they can keep the numbers there.
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Old 08-06-2012, 11:30 AM   #100
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No, I'm not willing to spend the money to fly 4 people from NC to CA just for Cars Land, air fare isnt cheap. But would it extend my stay or may keep my family from going to Universal while in Orlando, yeah probably.
So you are willing to spend hundreds or thousands more at WDW WITH Cars Land than you would at WDW WITHOUT Cars Land...but you won't pay to fly to Disneyland?

Bear in mind that a visit to Disneyland not includes Cars Land but also Toontown (which is 2-3 times the size of the former WDW disappointment), Bug's Land, Monster's Inc dark ride, Pinocchio dark ride, Matterhorn, World of Color, unique fireworks, parades & stage shows, better Space Mountain, better PotC, better Small World, better Fantasmic, etc.

You WOULD pay $400-500 for tickets to Universal Florida but California airfare is completely off the table?

In June 2011 we flew from Detroit to LA for under $200 per person round trip. This year it was around $250 pp. No sky miles or other discount programs involved...those were list prices. There are many deals to be found...particularly if you have young children and don't have to work around school schedules and such.

Unless there are extenuating circumstances (i.e. fear of flying), I suspect you really haven't done much research into the cost / benefit of a Disneyland trip. Either that or you aren't being honest with yourself about the impact a Cars Land would have on your WDW spending.

If Cars Land is so meaningful that it would prompt you to spend hundreds more on a WDW stay, then spend that money on a trip to Disneyland. Your family will be able to experience Cars Land and DOZENS of other new / unique Disney attractions.
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Old 08-06-2012, 11:55 AM   #101
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Originally Posted by ChipnDale79 View Post
How is Disney going to keep people from going to Universal though? It was pretty easy in the past, but with what Universal is doing now, how are they going to keep people on WDW property?

Sure it might not attract more people, but they've got to also to find a way to keep the people that are coming, from heading up I4 and going to Universal.

With the increase in attendance at IoA, a 2nd planned Harry Potter land at Universal, and a Transformers ride being built, WDW is going to have to do something to keep those people on their property.
No...this is where the bottom falls out of your argument.

WDW has always "kept people from going to universal"...or to be more specific - they have either:
A. kept them away in the first place
B. managed to get people to extend their stays and in many cases STAY LONGER on WDW property than they normally would have even if they go to universal or seaworld or (now) legoland.

This is not conjecture - its the documented business history of Orlando.
WDW has benefited (aka..higher attendance and higher profits) from both: A. the opening of Universal in 1989-90 and the opening of IOA in 99...
and indeed, there's no indication at this point that they - WDW - have suffered at all from the Harry Potter expansion at IOA.

It's entirely possible - check that..."likely" - that the potter expansion has actually helped WDW with their attendance and earnings in some of the worst travel years in the history of orlando.

Islands of adventure experienced a whopping jump to 7.5 million visitors in 2011....great news for them and orlando as a whole...

BUT...they had experienced a 1 million visitor shortfall between 2007-2008...and were still off their "peak" number of close to 6.8 million in (2003) by about 1.3 million.
Universal studios had experienced a less severe drop...but still was not advancing.

So...here we are now...6.0 million annual for Studios...an impressive 7.6 for IOA...for the combination of 13.5 for the two...pretty good huh?

except for two things:
1. Universal Studios Orlando once drew 6.9 million (i think that was the 03 or 04 number)...which means that they are being pilfered at one gate to the tune of 1 million ticks...guess who's doing that? i'll give you a hint: look for the wand. that is textbook park cannibalization that we often discuss around here.
2. There's just no way to state this any clearer: that 13.5 million combo number is utterly destroyed by the two "little" guys over in lake buena vista...almost 19.5 million visits to DHS/AK...and even if it is some parkhopping effect (though not as much as people probably assume)...6 million is no small number. It's not close without even mentioning the big dogs.

URO has rebounded from a significant drop due to potter....WDW has not declined...at all...in that time frame. With many economic indicators in the toilet. This is being dismissed in this conversation and should not be. They are still bullet proof...as it stands...today. That may not always be so - but it can't be argued today. The numbers don't support it.

Lots of people HAVE stayed away from WDW the last 4 years due to their consistently rising prices and lack of money in ma an pop's bank accounts. Yet their numbers are not dropping. They are just replacing some new for some of the old...the formula is still working. As evidenced by the earnings reports. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

I guess we're back to square one here: you have to understand a few things to look at the situation in the florida market properly:
1. WDW is has enjoyed the lions share of the patronage and by doing so exerts controlling interest over everything that has transpired.
2. WDW sucks way more money out of the competitors than they out of it. That is a fact since day one. That's putting it simply - the deeper take is that behind the board room doors - they are both fine with each other...because they've all made more money this way.
3. Since WDW does command the majority market (good comparisons that people don't fully recognize is that UPS controls 80% of the market to Fedex's 15 and Coke 60-70% to Pepsi's 20-30...yet most people consider them "equal competitors"...there are countless others) Capital Investment is up to them and them alone...to determine if its valid or necessary. And it has to do with statistics, trends, and longterm forecasting...not the threat of butter beer or the need for rides to tie to cars merchandise.

And just a final couple of quips...
It has been mentioned that WDW is having a hard time drawing customers on several occasions here. That is in the running for perhaps the most incorrect statement in modern history. An argument can't be based on that.
The second is that somehow cars land will pay for itself in extra days/ trips and or merchandise.
Not true...WDW tracks average stay/ per night expenditure as if its gold...because its how they guess (almost to the nickel) how much gold they're going to make. And that first number (the most important one) is butted up against the magic 7 day mark. That is a cultural barrier that neither mickey mouse nor buzz lightyear can climb over. On average, the total vacation time is not going to move into the 8,9,10 day range where huge capital construction would be profitable. They saw that they hit their own glass ceiling at AK and have not spent the big bucks since...because there is no profit in it.
And what of this idea that WDW doesn't sell cars stuff and needs a "land" to do that? Have you been there recently? The reality is that they are still going to outsell cars stuff over the park with the cars stuff. Any indication that WDW isn't fully maximizing ALL disney characters in merchandise is off base...they have made a science out of it. It's a public company...its in the annual reports. Disneyland is a more regional market that visits with more frequency...WDW is a tourist audience that go for 7 days on average and are a captive audience within a 40 square mile compound of giftshops...hmmm...let me think about this one.

ok...breathe.....breathe......breathe....Namaste:a ngel:
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Old 08-06-2012, 12:01 PM   #102
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I don't have the numbers in front of me, but i have heard attendance is up 25% each year the past 2 years at IoA. I know that's only 2 years, but it'll be interesting to see where that levels off and when it does level off, how long they can keep the numbers there.
For you and me, it's interesting (and keep in mind, pre WWOHP, they were hurting). They've seen decent sized gains..but I'm not sure that 25%,year over year, is sustainable for them. But, they have gone from "also ran" status to at least "honorable mention". Until they manage to eclipse ONE of the Disney parks, they'll probably stay that way.

To Disney..it's only interesting when it starts effecting their bottom line/attendance/hotel occupancy. It hasen't, from what we've actually seen (which is incomplete data, for sure), yet. Til then, Disney will keep an eye out, but won't really be all THAT interested.
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Old 08-06-2012, 12:08 PM   #103
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So you are willing to spend hundreds or thousands more at WDW WITH Cars Land than you would at WDW WITHOUT Cars Land...but you won't pay to fly to Disneyland?

Bear in mind that a visit to Disneyland not includes Cars Land but also Toontown (which is 2-3 times the size of the former WDW disappointment), Bug's Land, Monster's Inc dark ride, Pinocchio dark ride, Matterhorn, World of Color, unique fireworks, parades & stage shows, better Space Mountain, better PotC, better Small World, better Fantasmic, etc.

You WOULD pay $400-500 for tickets to Universal Florida but California airfare is completely off the table?

In June 2011 we flew from Detroit to LA for under $200 per person round trip. This year it was around $250 pp. No sky miles or other discount programs involved...those were list prices. There are many deals to be found...particularly if you have young children and don't have to work around school schedules and such.

Unless there are extenuating circumstances (i.e. fear of flying), I suspect you really haven't done much research into the cost / benefit of a Disneyland trip. Either that or you aren't being honest with yourself about the impact a Cars Land would have on your WDW spending.

If Cars Land is so meaningful that it would prompt you to spend hundreds more on a WDW stay, then spend that money on a trip to Disneyland. Your family will be able to experience Cars Land and DOZENS of other new / unique Disney attractions.
oh yeah...the other thing i forgot to throw out there yesterday:

vacation travelers - it seems - have become enamored with the "familiarity" concept as well...
as in going to the same place because it requires less brain juice.

I am a longtime offender in this category...i fully admit. If you don't have to do everything for the first time - it is more palatable to many out there.

Going to disneyland offers new, great things for the disney fan...but it requires that you spend your whole trip "feeling out" all the other parts of travel. new airport, new transport companies, new things that are "normal" to deal with...it tends to be too much effort for many.

And i can see why - as we work ourselves into oblivion, overschedule our kids, overschedule our lives, do too much family stuff, do too much stuff on the house...and in some case - vacation too much.
When people used to stay at home more...there was mental recharge time. now we don't allow it...constant motion.

If someone is considering disneyland as an alternative to orlando - they might look at the brain juice necessary and decide that its not worth the investment if its not going to be a "regular thing". so they don't pick it.

As opposed to the comfortable "shoes" vacation:
take the same flight on southwest from Manchester or BWI or Newark, stay a week at Port (as always...cuz you "love it there"), and even show up at the same restaurants at the same times on even the SAME DAYS of the trips - sometimes without even thinking about it for more than 5 seconds during booking six months in advance.

It's just easier.
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Old 08-06-2012, 12:19 PM   #104
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For you and me, it's interesting (and keep in mind, pre WWOHP, they were hurting). They've seen decent sized gains..but I'm not sure that 25%,year over year, is sustainable for them. But, they have gone from "also ran" status to at least "honorable mention". Until they manage to eclipse ONE of the Disney parks, they'll probably stay that way.

To Disney..it's only interesting when it starts effecting their bottom line/attendance/hotel occupancy. It hasen't, from what we've actually seen (which is incomplete data, for sure), yet. Til then, Disney will keep an eye out, but won't really be all THAT interested.
Another good point....

The last two harry potter movies...the climax...came out in 2011 and were spread over the year.

So its a mystery if the gains can be maintained/ built upon.

That is far from given. I don't see a universal park getting close to the 10 million mark in annual attendance (i'm not even sure they HAVE that much room in the park)...and if they increase by another 30% - which is what it'll take - then they'll be dueling with DHS and AK - the "baby sisters" of WDW.
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Old 08-06-2012, 12:31 PM   #105
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Another good point....

The last two harry potter movies...the climax...came out in 2011 and were spread over the year.

So its a mystery if the gains can be maintained/ built upon.

That is far from given. I don't see a universal park getting close to the 10 million mark in annual attendance (i'm not even sure they HAVE that much room in the park)...and if they increase by another 30% - which is what it'll take - then they'll be dueling with DHS and AK - the "baby sisters" of WDW.
Agree.

However, baby sisters or not...if IOA OR USF managed to eclipse DHS OR AK...I think that would make Disney stand up and take notice. Not panic...but take notice. IF USF/IOA combined managed to trump DHS/AK combined...I think that would make Disney stand up and take notice.

Until/unless that happens...I don't think Disney execs lose much sleep over IOA/USF. That would mean roughly a 30% gain on 2011 attendance at IOA. They didn't manage that when WWHOP opened and they were in the cellar. I don't see it happening, soon.

Again, if I were a Disney Exec, I'd be much more mindful of that batch of value rooms Uni's going to open, and at what price per night they launch them with. Because if Uni manages to launch 1800 rooms + suites UNDER All Star Resort pricing (and WELL under AOA's new price structure for suites) THEN the gloves might come off. Disney doesn't mind some of their guests "cheating" on them with Universal for a day or so. They do NOT want those guests, and a whole slew of OTHER guests, looking at another attractive, theme park proximal, resort...potentially with better amenities (HRH, Portafino, and Royal Pacific all have better amenities than most of the similar (but more expensive) Disney offerings)....which trump Disney on price. THAT counters DME, DDP, and all the other "captive audience" moves Disney's made over the last decade or so.

HRH, Portafino, and Royal Pacific simply don't have enough VOLUME to pull guests off Disney property. This new resort? A horse of a different color...
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