The DIS Discussion Forums - DISboards.com

The DIS Discussion Forums - DISboards.com (http://www.disboards.com/index.php)
-   Purchasing DVC (http://www.disboards.com/forumdisplay.php?f=28)
-   -   I don't get it! Where are all the resales GONE?? (http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=3105549)

alirwalsh4 05-02-2013 04:30 PM

I don't get it! Where are all the resales GONE??
 
Can someone explain to me what happened to all the resales? I haven't looked since maybe September/October, but there was plenty and now there are so few and the prices seem to have gone up? Would love to buy "just one more" but now just doesn't seem to be the time??

chalee94 05-02-2013 05:12 PM

supply dried up a little and demand went crazy. (yay for the economy...i guess...:confused3 )

i'd wait and try again later. (or expect to pay a bit more if you buy now.)

ELMC 05-02-2013 05:17 PM

Also, with all the ROFR activity, buyers who would normally buy one contract and then go away were having to buy two or three (or in my case five) before actually getting to keep one. The high levels of ROFR activity ate up a lot of the available contracts.

luckyman_apd 05-02-2013 06:51 PM

Makes me glad I bought 18 months ago :banana:

abner1776 05-03-2013 06:51 AM

When prices are heading south, everyone wants to sell to get the highest price possible and when prices are heading north, everyone holds off selling to see where the high point is to get the highest price.

IMHO sellers today are holding off to see where the prices are heading so they can maximize their proceeds on the sale. Once DVD stops these crazy price increases and resale sales level off, then I think you will see more sellers jumping into the market.

Minniesgal 05-03-2013 09:21 AM

I do think some sellers have gotten a bit over optimistic though and it is probably due for a correction.

NoleFan 05-03-2013 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Minniesgal (Post 48286525)
I do think some sellers have gotten a bit over optimistic though and it is probably due for a correction.

Very true!

McCrae 05-03-2013 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Minniesgal (Post 48286525)
I do think some sellers have gotten a bit over optimistic though and it is probably due for a correction.

I don't agree.... With the economy improving and the stock market doing well prices are going only in one direction and that is up.

Have you noticed the Disney special offers have gone... no free dining... Discounts on theme park passes hard to get. Demand for Disney is good and this is just the start of the recovery. Expect this to go on for years.

NoleFan 05-03-2013 11:47 AM

Stripped resale contracts moving close to $100/pp & direct $130 & upwards- no thanks! I don't care how good the economy is, I'll hold onto my $$ at those prices. Can't justify those prices. Glad I contracted prior to this.

DougEMG 05-03-2013 12:43 PM

The improving economy has caused a reducion in the supply as less people are forced to sell and at the same time caused an increase in the demand . So less supply combined with more demand means less resale contracts for sale.All of this leads to an increase in prices.

Exact same thing happened in the housing market. Houses are now coming off their lows. US house prices are up 10% in the last year and 30% in Vegas.

Anyone who is waiting for prices to fall back down to what they were a year ago could end up waiting a very long time.

Remember that just like buyers want to pay as little as possible, sellers want to get as much as possible and right now the sellers have the advantage.

dbs1228 05-03-2013 12:55 PM

I do believe prices will not fall as low as they were a year ago anytime soon but I do not see them keep going up either! Disney ROFR had the BIGGEST in pact on the rising prices IMO and once they stop taking contracts things will adjust somewhat. People were bidding over asking because they are afraid Disney will take the contract.

Resale companies are the ones advising sellers/ and buyers what the market is right now - what will pass/ how much to sell for. If Disney did not ROFR BWV contracts in the high 60's and let them go through I strongly believe BWV contracts would currently be listed in the mid to high 60's vs. mid to high 70's - also there would be a lot less buyers trying to buy BWV since they would have already bought what was taken back by Disney.

DougEMG 05-03-2013 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dbs1228 (Post 48288657)
I do believe prices will not fall as low as they were a year ago anytime soon but I do not see them keep going up either! Disney ROFR had the BIGGEST in pact on the rising prices IMO and once they stop taking contracts things will adjust somewhat. People were bidding over asking because they are afraid Disney will take the contract.

Resale companies are the ones advising sellers/ and buyers what the market is right now - what will pass/ how much to sell for. If Disney did not ROFR BWV contracts in the high 60's and let them go through I strongly believe BWV contracts would currently be listed in the mid to high 60's vs. mid to high 70's - also there would be a lot less buyers trying to buy BWV since they would have already bought what was taken back by Disney.

I'm more of a believer that supply and demand sets prices, not ROFR.

Current direct prices for BWV are $130. Buying resale you do have some restrictions in place which has some sort of dollar value to it, but essentially you are getting the same product regardless of who you buy from. So why the big difference in price for the same product?

Most of the contract I bought were loaded contracts which meant people had been paying MF for multiple years but not been able to go, which implies to me that they were desperate to sell. Today a lot of contracts for sale are stripped, which to me means the sellers are not desperate to sell but instead are trying to maximize their profit from the sale. So you blinks first, buyers or sellers. With buyers offering more it kind of implies the buyers are blinking first.

Once we start hearing reports of buyers getting into bidding wars for contracts then we'll know that it really has turned into a sellers market.

NoleFan 05-03-2013 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DougEMG (Post 48288954)
I'm more of a believer that supply and demand sets prices, not ROFR.

ROFR does impact supply & demand on the resale market significantly.

chalee94 05-03-2013 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoleFan (Post 48289013)
ROFR does impact supply & demand significantly.

question: do you think disney would ROFR as actively as they have recently if demand were not sufficient to cause waitlists for direct sales of sold-out resorts?

i also think DVC has a sales infrastructure in place and is running out of supply of inventory as BLT moved to "sold-out" status. so while DVC might not make as high a margin on ROFR'ed points as they do on a new resort, this seems like it could be a temporary strategy to keep things rolling till the VGF comes online.

i would tend to agree with doug. i think disney's ROFR decisions are a result of supply and demand, rather than the other way around. but i'm sure only the executives know for certain...

DougEMG 05-03-2013 01:35 PM

To give you an example of the change in prices in the last year.

In March of 2012 I had an offer accepted for

OKW 400 points at $39 with 183 for 2011 + 800 for 2012 + 400 for 2013 with buyer paying closing and MF.

Today I just saw an OKW 190 contract listed at $65 with 1 for 2013 + 190 for 2014 + 190 for 2015.

So that contract from last year was $26/point cheaper and had 2.5 years of points with it.

Now I did lose my contract to ROFR :sad:, but I'm pretty sure ROFR alone did not cause such a big change in prices.

Smart sellers are seeing that there is an increased demand for DVC contracts and then are naturally going to start raising the prices they are asking.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:09 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

Copyright 1997-2014, Werner Technologies, LLC. All Rights Reserved.