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-   -   Bite or Wait (http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=3094549)

buzlite 04-10-2013 11:46 PM

Bite or Wait
 
Do most people think now is the best time to buy or to wait a couple of months. I know no one knows for sure but whats the feeling from past experiences everyone has and with VGF opening soon.

e46m3 04-11-2013 01:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by buzlite (Post 48072355)
Do most people think now is the best time to buy or to wait a couple of months. I know no one knows for sure but whats the feeling from past experiences everyone has and with VGF opening soon.

Everyday you wait someone is getting richer and is willing to pay more than you. The stock market is near the high. The housing here in CA has recovered to almost near its high. It's a tough call but if you can afford it and you want it then go for it. DVC is a commodity. It rises and fall with the economy.

ELMC 04-11-2013 06:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by e46m3

Everyday you wait someone is getting richer and is willing to pay more than you. The stock market is near the high. The housing here in CA has recovered to almost near its high. It's a tough call but if you can afford it and you want it then go for it. DVC is a commodity. It rises and fall with the economy.

I'm not so sure I share this sunny view of the economy, as I think we are a few policy decisions away from another major recession. That being said, we are at a 12 month high for resale prices right now. If you think it is sustainable, then you should go ahead and buy now. If you think prices are going to go down (which I do) then you should wait. Or, you should not stress over a few bucks and just start vacationing on DVC points now. :)

Minniesgal 04-11-2013 06:37 AM

I would keep an eye on things and if the perfect contract comes up I'd go for it but otherwise I'd wait until it does. We were planning on waiting until later this year but we found the points we wanted in our UY so we went for it

Pirate Granny 04-11-2013 06:54 AM

I agree, we finally saw a contract with our use year and points, and although it was $5 more than our original plan...i just jumped on it... We've been looking for over a year! If it gets taken by ROFR then it wasn't meant to be.

DisDad07 04-11-2013 07:06 AM

I agree, buy if you find what you want, and don't look back. Find a nice deal you can live with and don't pay more then you want. You will enjoy it better if you feel you got the right deal. I am still waiting for another ( feel good ) deal, so we can buy another contract. Good Luck !

Dean 04-11-2013 07:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by buzlite (Post 48072355)
Do most people think now is the best time to buy or to wait a couple of months. I know no one knows for sure but whats the feeling from past experiences everyone has and with VGF opening soon.

It seems things have ticked up recently for a number of reasons and it's likely that trend will continue. IF I were going to buy, I'd do so now resale or wait a year or 2, not months. What being able to wait a couple of months will do is help you become more educated if you need that and to spend more time figuring out exactly where your breakpoints are and finding the right contract including best UY and home resort if those matter for your travel plans.

Silver19 04-11-2013 07:43 AM

I don't know about everyone else, but I searched for a year trying to find the right contract for my family, and every time something suitable came up, it was gone before I could buy it. Even if you decide "now is the time," it may take months to find something that matches your needs (in my case, a BWV contract with 100 points or less).

bisney 04-11-2013 08:55 AM

I think it's pretty difficult to predict the market with any certainty. My opinion is the difference between a few dollars per point at initial purchase is immaterial given the useful life of the timeshare. Think about the amount of money that you'll spend on travel/food/admissions/etc, etc, etc for the next 29-47 years!

I love a deal and saving money but I LOVE taking trips with my family and for us we decided that we wanted to jump into the market now to ensure that we can book our trip for next year... the kids are only young once right?

Minniesgal 04-11-2013 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Silver19 (Post 48073518)
I don't know about everyone else, but I searched for a year trying to find the right contract for my family, and every time something suitable came up, it was gone before I could buy it. Even if you decide "now is the time," it may take months to find something that matches your needs (in my case, a BWV contract with 100 points or less).

We must have been pretty lucky then we found what we wanted both times within a few weeks of starting. We listed with a resale agent and they emailed us the minute what we wanted went up for sale. The last time we made an offer we offered the minute it was listed and it was sold within an hour. there were 3 contracts and they were all sold within 24.

chalee94 04-11-2013 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bisney (Post 48074152)
I love a deal and saving money but I LOVE taking trips with my family and for us we decided that we wanted to jump into the market now to ensure that we can book our trip for next year... the kids are only young once right?

you can still rent or look for other discount options, though. it's not as if a DVC purchase is the only choice.

lodge 04-11-2013 09:56 AM

I stalked the resale sites relentlessly, watching for the contracts we wanted. The SECOND a contract came up, that fell within the parameters we preset for it, we called immediately. We were first callers on every one of 'em. Most people don't have as much time that it took to do this. On the ROFR thread, the prices we paid seemed on the higher end, but we specifically wanted smaller contract that could be resold fairly easily. Now with raised prices, we could sell them and purchase more points at the same locations, or go for even more points at the later-expiring resorts.
All that being said, we knew the main point of buying was to vacation at the resorts we chose. The rest was just gravy.

tb1972 04-11-2013 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pirate Granny (Post 48073149)
I agree, we finally saw a contract with our use year and points, and although it was $5 more than our original plan...i just jumped on it... We've been looking for over a year! If it gets taken by ROFR then it wasn't meant to be.

We just did the same thing. Found a small 40 pt add on with the right UY and took it. Small contracts with the needed UY are hard to get.

DougEMG 04-11-2013 10:39 AM

I think that resales prices are influenced mostly by how well the economy is doing and second by the price Disney is charging. So I have about as much chance as predicting where I think resale prices are going as I do predicting where the economy is going.

Resale prices first started increasing last summer. I thought they would then dip back down after January (once MF were due). I was wrong and the prices continued to go up.

sndral 04-11-2013 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by e46m3 (Post 48072532)
Everyday you wait someone is getting richer and is willing to pay more than you. The stock market is near the high. The housing here in CA has recovered to almost near its high. It's a tough call but if you can afford it and you want it then go for it. DVC is a commodity. It rises and fall with the economy.

Mmm, not sure where in California you are (I'm up North,) but the 2 real estate markets I watch like a hawk (where I'll be selling in a couple of years and where I'll be buying) are still down significantly from peak, although they have rebounded a bit since 2011, but the foreclosures looming suggest to me that what we may be seeing is a second dead cat bounce since the fall from peak.
It feels a bit like a feeding frenzy w/ DVC @ the moment, so I'll probably just wait awhile - unless the contract that suits me comes along.
My instinct is that generally DVC sales are more linked to the availibilty of credit for most - is that not the case? I thought I read that most direct DVC purchases where w/ financing, so wouldn't that be the trend to watch rather than the stock market? Resale buyers, I suspect, are more often cash buyers - so maybe that market is very different from direct buyers.


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