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-   -   When will BLT resale fall into the 70's? (http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=3056700)

Nahanni 01-30-2013 10:01 AM

When will BLT resale fall into the 70's?
 
There appears to be a growing number of BLT contracts for sale on all sites and Fidelity has one listed at $79. Is it inevitable the price will fall into the 70's and what will the impact be on pricing at other resorts?

Jasonkat 01-30-2013 02:34 PM

Wow, you're right. $79 for 270 points.

I'm no expert on pricing so I'm not sure if this is the beginning of a trend or just a desperate seller.

It's hard to say the impact on other resorts. Clearly BLT has a desirable location so if the prices drop enough that may make some people who would buy AKL or BCV look at BLT. However VWL, BWV, SSR, and OKW are SO much cheaper I don't expect a big change in their prices.

ELMC 01-30-2013 02:49 PM

Prices will most likely continue to fall a little. However, there are two caveats to that. First, the escalating direct price could allow prices to tick upwards and still be a substantial savings. Second, BLT point requirements are the highest among onsite DVC resorts. So even if the prices come down, buying at BLT is not going to be a value proposition in the same way that buying at SSR and booking BLT at the 7 month window. My point is, even if you get a bargain on the buy in for BLT points, you're still paying a premium when you go to use them. And if you're going not going to use them to stay at BLT, you might as well buy any other resort.

DougEMG 01-30-2013 05:11 PM

I'd say that the $79 price is someone who is looking for a quick sale since nothing else listed is even close to it in price. So I would not take that as a downward trend in BLT prices. It certainly could be a good deal for anyone that is looking for a BLT contract, provided it passed ROFR.

thptrek 01-30-2013 06:52 PM

It does seem that BLT offers have dropped about $5/point in the last week. Do you think that $79 would pass ROFR?

JimMIA 01-30-2013 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ELMC (Post 47358129)
Second, BLT point requirements are the highest among onsite DVC resorts. So even if the prices come down, buying at BLT is not going to be a value proposition in the same way that buying at SSR and booking BLT at the 7 month window. My point is, even if you get a bargain on the buy in for BLT points, you're still paying a premium when you go to use them. And if you're going not going to use them to stay at BLT, you might as well buy any other resort.

Actually, I'm not sure it matters much.

Using any points at BLT is an expensive proposition because the per-night points requirements at BLT are substantially higher. That has nothing to do with where you own; it's a function of where you are staying.

And the "higher cost" of BLT depends on the assumptions you make. I personally like to use a 10-year timeframe, considering the points to be worthless 10 years from now...which is a VERY conservative assumption.

Using 0 value in 10 years, BLT @ $80 pp would cost $8 per point per year, and SSR @ $55 would cost $5.50 per point per year.
  • BLT dues are currently $4.50 + $8.00 = $12.81 per point this year.
  • SSR dues are $4.81 + $5.50 = $10.31 per point this year.

But if you take the more common assumption -- calculating the acquisition cost over the total years remaining in the contract (48 for BLT; 45 for SSR), the difference is negligible:
  • BLT becomes $80/48 years = $1.67 + $4.50 = $6.17
  • SSR becomes $55/45 years = $1.22 + $4.81 = $6.03

Moderate difference to very little difference, depending on which model you use.

fmer55 01-30-2013 09:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DougEMG (Post 47359550)
I'd say that the $79 price is someone who is looking for a quick sale since nothing else listed is even close to it in price. So I would not take that as a downward trend in BLT prices. It certainly could be a good deal for anyone that is looking for a BLT contract, provided it passed ROFR.

That $79 was a price drop and I believe it was to differentiate from the others, I don't think there is much wiggle room on that one:smokin:

Any other questions about their BLT listings? I've been through just about all of 'em:lmao:

bookwormde 01-31-2013 05:05 AM

The fact that BLT's dues are catching up with the other resorts is a big part of the recent price slide. I am guesing that the price will reset at about 80-85. We will have to see what happens with next years dues increase.

Dean 01-31-2013 07:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nahanni (Post 47355071)
There appears to be a growing number of BLT contracts for sale on all sites and Fidelity has one listed at $79. Is it inevitable the price will fall into the 70's and what will the impact be on pricing at other resorts?

With the upcoming price increase and GF coming on board in addition to the underlying benefits and draw of the resort, I think it'll hold pretty steady for a while. Eventually it will fall into the 70's then 60's but I think it'll take 3-4 years before it does as a routine.

zavandor 01-31-2013 07:29 AM

With Disney selling much less contracts at 160$pp and resales lowering, will taxes go down next year, lowering MF?
It might be what happened at SSR: it was declared sold out and then taxes went down.

Dean 01-31-2013 07:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zavandor (Post 47364270)
With Disney selling much less contracts at 160$pp and resales lowering, will taxes go down next year, lowering MF?
It might be what happened at SSR: it was declared sold out and then taxes went down.

I don't think so, the taxes are a function of the government, not DVC or DVD.

zavandor 01-31-2013 10:06 AM

Aren't they calculated also on the basis of how much the contracts sell for?

Dean 01-31-2013 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zavandor (Post 47365686)
Aren't they calculated also on the basis of how much the contracts sell for?

Real estate taxes are based on value. They value the entire property then divide it up accordingly. They do not take individual contracts and recalculate the value accordingly like they MIGHT for a home. Some locals are subject to over valuing timeshares and rental type condo's to get more money but it's still based on some idea of the value of the property in total prorated for each owner.

DougEMG 01-31-2013 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dean (Post 47364105)
With the upcoming price increase and GF coming on board in addition to the underlying benefits and draw of the resort, I think it'll hold pretty steady for a while. Eventually it will fall into the 70's then 60's but I think it'll take 3-4 years before it does as a routine.

I agree, once VGF comes out, those resale price for BLT are going to look pretty good.

When BLT drop down to the $60-$70 range I might be interested in looking at a few more points there (assuming their MF stay low).

Jasonkat 02-03-2013 08:46 AM

It was posted on 1/30 and is gone when I checked today at 2/3. Someone got a good deal.


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